The Information Age: At the Inflection Point

1
The Information Age At the Inflection
Point

• Bill Coleman

2
The Cycles of Innovation Model

• History doesnt repeat itself, but it sometimes
  rhymes
• Mark Twain
• Cycles are thirty years long, one starts every
  10 years
• Cycles include three ten year phases
• Invention, Boom and Bust
• Buildout and Consolidation
• Commoditization
• Information age includes six cycles 1960 - 2040
• Cycles 1 3 IT Cycles - The Cloud Platform
• Cycles 4 6 Web Cycles- The Web Platform

3
The IT Cycles of Innovation
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Cycle 3 Cycle 4
Cycle 5 Cycle 6

• Invention
• _________
• Boom Bust

• Build Out
• _______
• Consolidation

Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1
Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1

• Commoditization

1960 1970 1980 1990
2000 2010
2020 2030 2040
4
The IT Cycles of Innovation
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Cycle 3 Cycle 4
Cycle 5 Cycle 6

• Invention
• _________
• Boom Bust

• Build Out
• _______
• Consolidation

Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1
Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1

• Commoditization

1960 1970 1980 1990
2000 2010
2020 2030 2040
5
The IT Cycles of Innovation
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Cycle 3 Cycle 4
Cycle 5 Cycle 6

• Invention
• _________
• Boom Bust

• Build Out
• _______
• Consolidation

Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1
Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1

• Commoditization

1960 1970 1980 1990
2000 2010
2020 2030 2040
6
Cycle 4 The Inflection Point

• The Internet really does change everything!
• The Cloud Platform emerges during Cycle 4
• Commoditization results in creative destruction
  of ICT
• From now on its all about the Web!
• The Internet has three properties that create
  value
• Free reach
• Straight-thru-processing
• Transparency
• These are phases 4, 5 and 6

7
Cycle 4 Web 2.0 Social Networking
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Cycle 3 Cycle 4
Cycle 5 Cycle 6

• Invention
• _________
• Boom Bust

• Build Out
• _______
• Consolidation

Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1
Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1

• Commoditization

1960 1970 1980 1990
2000 2010
2020 2030 2040
8
Cycle 5 The Internet Economy
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Cycle 3 Cycle 4
Cycle 5 Cycle 6

• Invention
• _________
• Boom Bust

• Build Out
• _______
• Consolidation

Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1
Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1

• Commoditization

1960 1970 1980 1990
2000 2010
2020 2030 2040
9
Cycle 6 Web Presence
Cycle 1 Cycle 2
Cycle 3 Cycle 4
Cycle 5 Cycle 6

• Invention
• _________
• Boom Bust

• Build Out
• _______
• Consolidation

Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1
Phase 3 Phase 2
Phase 1

• Commoditization

1960 1970 1980 1990
2000 2010
2020 2030 2040
10
Life on the Web in 2040

• Identity provides security with privacy and civil
  liberties
• The Pull Economy dramatically improves
  productivity moving most the world into the
  middle class!
• A dashboard for life my world under my control!
  
• Web Presence where virtual meets physical and our
  abilities transcend our disabilities!
• My Proxy The self-aware proxy for life My
  buddy, my alter-ego, my mentor and my guardian!
• So what comes next?
• The Dematerialization Age, where Bio meets Nano

11
Predicting the future is pointless, but it is
possible to identify trends that have significant
effects.
Peter Drucker