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Trends and Patterns in the War on Terrorism

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Title: Trends and Patterns in the War on Terrorism


1
Trends and Patterns in the War on Terrorism
  • Robert W. Taylor, Ph.D.

2
Methodology for Our Discussion
  • Introduction and Understanding Terrorism in
    General
  • Understanding Islam in the Middle East
  • Radical and Fundamental Islamic Philosophies
  • Identify Trends and Patterns in Recent Bombings
    and Activities
  • Thoughts on the Future

3
Defining Terrorism
  • International terrorism
  • Transnational terrorism
  • Domestic terrorism
  • State terrorism

Terrorism vs. war Terrorism plays to emotion,
not intellect
4
Know Your Adversary
  • If you know the enemy and know yourself, you
    need not fear the results of a hundred battles.
    If you know yourself and not the enemy, for every
    victory gained, you will also suffer a defeat.
    If you know neither yourself or the enemy, you
    succumb in every battle
  • Sun TzuThe Art of War

5
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6
What Is Middle-Eastern Culture?
  • There in no single culture embracing the entire
    Middle East --
  • It is a complex and unique cultural area

7
What Is Middle-Eastern Culture?
  • Depends on perspective
  • To approach suspects, victims, and witnesses in
    Middle-Eastern communities
  • National origin and politics
  • Religious orientation
  • Friendship networks and associations
  • Arab, Bedouin, Mede, Turk, Asian, Pakistani,
    Iranian, North African, Sub-Saharan African?

8
Middle East
  • Understanding Islam

9
Prophet Mohammed
  • Founder of Islam, born in Mecca
  • Received revelations about God (Allah) from the
    archangel Gabriel
  • Wrote revelations in a series of verses and
    poems, which later became the Quran (Koran)
  • Driven from Mecca to Medina, where his following
    grew
  • Died in 632 and left growth of Islam to his
    followers

10
Two Islamic Traditions Sunni and Shiite
  • Sunni True Path of Allah strongly associated
    with Saudi Arabia The majority of Muslims in the
    world
  • Shiite Leaders are descended from Mohammed
    through Fatima (daughter) and Ali (cousin)
    Shiat Ali Leaders are divinely inspired and
    infallible Strongly associated with Iran Only
    about 10 of the Muslim World

11
Understand the Differences Sunni vs. Shiite
  • Sheik Omar Rahman
  • Veiled Shiite woman

12
Understand Islam
  • NOT a violent religion
  • Cousin to Judaism and Christianity
  • Equalizes classes through love of God
  • Submission to the will of God
  • Muslim is one who submits
  • Understand the real meaning
  • of jihad

13
Five Pillars of Islam
  • Five Pillars of Islam are the framework of the
    Muslim life
  • Testimony of Faith (Shahada)
  • Daily Prayer (Selah)
  • Support of the Needy (Zakah)
  • Fasting during Ramadan (Sawm)
  • Pilgrimage to Mecca (Hajj)

14
Pillar 1 Shahada
  • The testimony of faith is saying with conviction
  • La ilaha illa Allah, Muhammadur rasoolu Allah 
  • There is no true god but Allah, and Muhammad is
    his Prophet 

15
Pillar 2 Prayer (Selah)
  • Muslims perform five prayers a day
  • Each prayer does not take more than a few
    minutes
  • Prayer in Islam is a direct link between the
    worshipper and Allah
  • In prayer, a person feels inner happiness, peace,
    and comfort and that Allah is pleased with him or
    her
  • Prayers are performed at dawn, noon,
    mid-afternoon, sunset, and night

16
Pillar 3 Giving Zakah
  • All things belong to Allah, and wealth is
    therefore held by human beings in trust
  • The original meaning of the word zakah is both
    purification and growth 
  • Giving zakah means giving a specified percentage
    of certain properties to certain classes of needy
    people (tithe)

17
Pillar 4 Fasting
  • Every year in the month of Ramadan, all Muslims
    fast from dawn until sundown, abstaining from
    food, drink, and sexual relations
  • Fasting is regarded principally as a method of
    spiritual self-purification
  • By cutting ones self off from worldly comforts,
    even for a short time, a fasting person gains
    true sympathy with those who go hungry, as well
    as achieves growth in his or her spiritual life

18
Pillar 5 Pilgrimage to Mecca
  • The annual pilgrimage (Hajj) to Mecca is an
    obligation (once in a lifetime) for those who are
    able to perform it
  • About two million people go to Mecca each year
    from every corner of the globe
  • Hajj is performed in the twelfth month of the
    Islamic calendar
  • Male pilgrims wear special simple clothes that
    strip away distinctions of class and culture so
    that all stand equal before Allah

19
Hajj
20
Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements
  • Wahhabismmovement related to Saudi
    ArabiaMuhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703-1792).
  • Reform movement that believes that absolutely
    every tenant added to Islam after the third
    century of the birth of Islam is corrupted.
  • Keep the original rituals and practices of Islam.
  • Foreign interests and modernity threaten this way
    of life.

21
Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements
  • The Muslim Brotherhood --- movement related to
    Egypt and the scholarly tradition of Hasan
    al-Banna (1906-1949), Sayyid Qutb (1906-1966),
    Sheik Omar Rahman, and Ayman al Zawahiri (Sunni).
  • Indigenous political-religious movement against
    European colonial powers that eroded Islamic
    culture.
  • There is no middle ground only good and evil.
  • Implement a new Islamic order through jihad or
    holy war primarily against corrupt Middle
    Eastern regimes and now the West.

22
Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements
  • Salafism movement related to Egypt and the
    writings of Muhammad Abduh (1849-1905) and
    Rashid Rida
  • Emphasizes the self-sufficiency and expansiveness
    of Islam (much more tolerant than ancient
    Wahhabism)
  • Modernity has value for Islam (hence, not
    necessarily anti-Western). Recognized the
    exploitation for oil.
  • Today, a broad philosophy of intellectual and
    cultural undertaking, usually not political.

23
Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements
  • Jihadist Salafism movement of the second
    generation Salafists, radicalized in the 1980s by
    the Soviet-Afghan War
  • Embraces a strict and literal interpretation of
    Islam
  • Violence (jihad) is the instrument to drive out
    the West and destroy corrupt Middle Eastern
    regimes
  • Charismatic leadership of Usama bin Laden
  • Al-Qaeda now morphing into Southeastern Asia with
    Jemaah Islamiah and Turkey with IBDA/C

24
Religious Fundamentalism in IslamThe
Purification Movements
  • Khomeinismmovement of Shia Islam as the supreme
    force in the Middle East
  • Non-secular, religion and government are the same
  • Led by Irans Revolutionary Council
  • Surging as a result of Iraqi War
  • HizbAllah is Iran
  • Greatly expanded drug (opium) and gun trafficking
    in Turkish and Central Asian Regions

25
Islamic FundamentalismIdeology
  • No separation between church and state
  • Secularism leads to the marginalization of
    religion
  • Secularism and modernity are inseparable
  • Leading to political and moral decay
  • Secularism is direct threat to Muslim identity
  • Only solution is to Re-Islamasize the Muslim
    world
  • Return to the ways of the old
  • Common enemy is the West and ME governments
    friendly to the West

26
Fundamentalism in General
  • Charismatic leaders
  • Usama bin Laden, Abdul Rahman, Jim Jones, David
    Koresh
  • Selective interpretation of scriptures and other
    important writings
  • Bible, Quoran, Old Revolutionary Writers
  • Apocalyptic mission
  • Misapplication of symbolic words
  • Christian Patriot, constitutionalist, jihad
  • God speaks to them directly, justifying violence
  • Justifies the use violence due to loss of
    morality save the world

27
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28
al QaedaUsama bin Laden
29
al Qaeda Leadership
Usama bin Laden ?
Ayman Al-Zawahiri ?
Mohammed Atef Dead
30
al QaedaUsama bin Laden
Nairobi, Kenya, 1998
  • Leadership Usama bin Laden, in 1988
  • Ideology al Qaeda is a network of many different
    fundamentalist organizations in diverse
    countries
  • Remember the purification movements
  • Common factors are the use of terrorism for the
    attainment of their political goals and an agenda
    whose main priority is the overthrow of the
    heretic governments and the establishment of
    Islamic governments based on the rule of
    Shariah
  • The Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), the fall of
    Russia, and the rise of the Mujahadeen (Holy
    Warriors) and UBL
  • August 1996bin Laden issued a declaration of
    war against the Great Satan, the United States

31
al QaedaUsama bin Laden (continued)
  • February 1998bin Laden stated, If someone can
    kill an American soldier, it is better than
    wasting time on other matters
  • 1998bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and
    Tanzaniakilled 224
  • 2000suicide bombing of USS Cole in Yemenkilled
    17 sailors
  • 2001suicide bombings at the World Trade Center,
    the Pentagon, and a United jet in
    Pennsylvaniakilled 2,800

32
September 11, 2001
33
Al QaedaNew Threats
  • Morphing into other groups and areas
  • Active in Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Europe
  • Capitalizing on Islamic Fundamentalism
  • Social and political crisis
  • Drawing on revolutionary religious leaders of the
    past
  • Linking with smaller Islamic Fundamentalist
    groups
  • Using regional networks to continue the fight
  • Commonality Trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan
  • Major target acquisition and event planning
  • These people are at war!

34
Fundamentalism in Southeast Asia
  • Jemaah Islamiya
  • Bali bombingJ. W. Marriott bombing in Jakarta,
    active in the Philippines with al Qaeda
  • Leadership under Abu Bakar Bashir, Khalid Sheik
    Mohammad, Riduan Ismuddin (Hambali)
  • Goalestablish Islamic state across Southeast
    Asia
  • Linked to Moro Islamic Liberation Front (fighting
    a guerrilla war for 25 years in Mindanao)
    (training camps)
  • Poses significant new threat to Western interests
  • Project Bojinka and Ramzi Youseff (1995)

35
Fundamentalism in Southeast Asia
  • Abu Sayyaf
  • Primarily in the Philippines
  • Kidnapping, rape, prostitution, and drug
    trafficking
  • A bunch of thugs using Islamic Fundamentalism as
    a cover

36
Review of Recent Bombings
  • London bombings (July 7, 2005) killed 55, wounded
    700 in suicide attacks on transit system July 21
    unsuccessful attacks (not suicidal)
  • Sharm el-Sheikh Resort in Egypt (July 23, 2005)
    suicide attack killed 90 and wounded 240 linked
    to earlier attack on Taba Resort in October 2004
    with 25 dead
  • Madrid, Spain (March 11, 2004) suicide bombing of
    train station killed 190 people
  • Istanbul, Turkey (November 15 and 20, 2003)
    suicide bombings of two synagogues, a
    London-based bank, and the British Consulate
    killed 62 people
  • Suicide attack Bali bombing in Indonesia (October
    12, 2002) killed 202 JW Marriott bombing
  • Continued activities in Iraq

37
Bali Bombing (October 12, 2002)
  • Killed 202 people
  • Directly linked to Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu
    Sayyaf (Philippines and MILF)
  • Funnel-bombing techniques
  • Traded drugs for bomb materials and ammonium
    nitrate (fertilizer), not C4
  • 2005Abu Bakr Bashir charged in bombing (later
    overturned)
  • Bashir trained in Afghanistan, member of
    Mujahadeen (Riduan Ishmudden, aka Hambali,
    arrested in Thailand)
  • Directly linked to Project BojinkaJanuary 1995?

38
Istanbul Bombings (November 2003)
  • Linked to IBDA/C (Great Eastern Islamic Fighters)
  • Relatively small, unknown group that had tossed a
    few Molotov cocktails
  • Sunni radical leadersjihadist salafist ideology
  • Suicide truck bombings
  • Used trucks packed with explosives (NH4NO3)
  • Well-organized and internationally supplied (TNP
    suspects Iran)
  • Suspect Baki Yigit trained in Afghanistan and met
    with UBL had been arrested for drug trafficking
    by the TNP
  • 18 people involved, including 2 women

39
Spain Bombings (March 11, 2001)
  • 190 killed, over a thousand injured
  • At least linked with another group(s) 12
    Moroccans arrestedone Moroccan suspect at large
    lived in Turkey and had previous connections to
    al Qaeda and IBDA/C
  • Similar explosive techniques as recently seen in
    London (multiple attacks on trains)
  • Large-scale attack, using multiple bombs and
    funneling
  • Significant planning and multiple operatives
  • The only Spaniard, Jose Suarez, traded hashish
    for at least part of the explosives
  • Linked to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Jordanian al
    Qaeda member from Afghanistan camps)
  • Linked to Hezb Allah (Iran) for funding

40
London Bombings (July 7, 2005)
  • Killed 55, wounded over 700
  • Four total bombers three different trains and
    one double-decker bus
  • Hassib Hussain, Mohammad Sadique Khan, Shehzar
    Tanveer, and Haroon Rashid Aswat (all Pakistani)
  • Khan in NYC in 1995, traveled extensively and
    Pakistani
  • Aswat (suspected mastermind) met Bin Laden in
    Afghanistan in 1995
  • All were in Karachi, Pakistan, in July or April
    2004 (suspected of drug trafficking from the
    Golden Crescent)

41
London Bombings (July 7, 2005) (continued)
  • Hasib Hussain connected to Sheik Omar Bakri
    Mohammad and al-Mahajroun in London (Pakistani
    with deep Afghani roots)
  • Mastermind fled to Egypt Majdi al Nasher
    (chemist) released by Egyptian authorities
  • British officialSame signature as the Madrid
    bombings that means funnel bombings and ties
    to drugs for trade for explosives

42
London Bombing (July 21, 2005)
  • Copycat attack
  • 7 arrested, including 4 East Africans from London
    (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia)
  • Bombs failed not the same substance or device
    types as previous bombings
  • Not suicidal attacks
  • Probably more connected with internal London
    issues than global terrorism

43
Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt (July 23, 2005)
  • Suicide bombing (truck driven into hotel, very
    similar to Istanbul bombing 90 dead, 240 injured
    in three separate attacks (two by truck and one
    in a sack at a bus station)
  • Two identified bombersMohammad Badran Hanafi
    from the Tawhid and Jihad Group (old Salafi group
    linked to Bin Laden through the Egyptian Muslim
    Brotherhood) and Mohammad Saleh Fleifel
    (Pakistani with forged passports)
  • Connected to Taba Resort bombing in October
    200425 dead Suleiman Fleifal was one of two
    suicide bombers
  • Fleifal brothers were in Afghanistan in the 1990s

44
Activities in Iraq
  • The Peace Process and withdrawal of U.S. troops
    (actually increasing through 2006 with 135,000
    troops)
  • A Federated State
  • Understand the linkage between HezbAllah and
    Iran
  • 62 of population in Iraq is Shiite
  • Al-Sistani wisdom via Abu Bakir Bashir in Kum,
    Iran be patient!
  • Increase in bombing activities (NH4NO3)

45
Commonalities
  • By method of operation and tacticsmultiple
    attacks and most are sophisticated suicidal
    attacks
  • By financing from viable ME countries or groups
    (Iran and HezbAllahDRUG CONNECTION)
  • By radical Islamic philosophy (Sunni and Shiite)
  • Many are members of the original Mujahadeen in
    Afghanistan, or at least trained in Afghani camps
    (remember Ahmed Ressam)
  • Stepped-up activity because of Iraq
  • All connected to UBL and al Qaeda for leadership
    during the same period of timewhat is al Qaeda
    now?

46
The New al Qaeda
  • The imperative of individual jihad fused with
    collective revenge for Americas perceived
    global war on Islam. Enemy is the West and
    Middle East puppet governments
  • Expansion presented by the occupation of Iraqwin
    the war lost in Afghanistan
  • Sunni-Shiite collaboration
  • Competent and determined leadership cadre with
    adequate finances (drugs, human, and arms
    dealing)
  • Growth through new Islamic alliances and
    recruitment of youth, again fueled by Iraq War
    (e.g., Southeast Asia, Colombia, Central Asian
    Republics)
  • A remarkably nimble, flexible, and adaptive
    entity

47
New Trends in Financing
  • Drug trafficking
  • Golden Crescent routes and changes
  • Golden Crescent now produces 92 of the worlds
    opium (since the Karzai government)
  • Changes from heroin to meth (Operation Mountain
    Express2003)
  • Linkages to HezbAllah
  • Changes in Malaysia (potential link w/Thailand
    via smuggling)
  • Designer drugs e.g. ecstasy, yaya pills,
  • Other smuggling
  • Linkages with FARC and other Latin American
    Marxist groups
  • Linkages with organized crime cartels

48
New Trends in Financing (continued)
  • Human trafficking
  • Middle East (Afghanistan and Central Asian
    Republics)
  • Linked with organized crimeRussian Vory
  • Cambodia, and Philippines
  • Linked with madrasas in Southeast Asia (children)
  • Linked with organized crimeYakuza
  • A word about Abu Sayyaf
  • Kidnapping and extortion
  • Links to HezbAllah
  • Links to FARC and ELN

49
New Trends in Financing (continued)
  • Credit card and passport fraud
  • Contraband smuggling and trafficking
  • Baby aspirin and formula, cigarettes, etc.
  • Gold, diamonds, and other commodities
  • Hawalas (secret transferring and funding of
    moneyprimarily gold (commodities)
  • Charities fraud (like Holy Land Foundation and
    HAMAS)
  • Often linked through Hezbollah in Lebanon
  • Again, Shiite and Sunni cooperation

50
New Trends in Financing (continued)
  • Arms trafficking
  • Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics
  • Chechnyans and, again, connected via Russian mob
    (Vory)
  • Southeast Asia
  • From Somalia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and other
    destabilized countries
  • FARC and ELN

51
Potential Trends for Future Consideration
  • Potential attacks involving Southeast Asia (lets
    talk about it?)
  • Very active in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the
    Philippines
  • Instability of Southern Thailand..what to do?
  • The Middle East is too hotorganizations are in
    disarray and leadership is on the run! Where
    might they go?
  • Jemaah Islamiyah, Hambali, Ramsi Youseff, and
    Project Bojinka (the new Kingdom of Islam) have
    historical linkages with Southeast Asia
  • Porous U.S. border and rise in OTMs from Mexico
  • Drug, human, and arms trafficking and linkages to
    US

52
Potential Trends for Future Consideration
(continued)
  • Target selection
  • Virtually unlimited target acquisition and
    potential inside the United States
  • Embassies still major targets
  • Friendly countries
  • Major symbolic targets in New York Washington,
    DC Chicago and maybe Los Angeles are still the
    major hit areas
  • Transit and transportation locations
  • They know they can hurt us here again
  • Potential for WMD ???

53
Final Thoughts on the Future
  • International connectivity of groups, especially
    along the lines of drug, human, and arms
    trafficking (financing)
  • Increased radical factionalism and religious
    extremism
  • This is not crime it is war! Our criminal
    justice systems may be ill-equipped to handle
    such low-level conflict.how do we handle
    properly handle these types of situations???
  • We must understand the changing dynamics of
    terrorism
  • Continue to build strong partnerships between
    countries like the U.S. and Thailand
  • Never give up on diplomacy!

54
Thank You!
  • Robert W. Taylor, Ph.D.
  • Professor and Chair
  • Department of Criminal Justice
  • University of North Texas
  • Post Office Box 305130
  • Denton, Texas 76203-5130
  • Phone (940) 565-4475
  • FAX (940) 565-2548
  • Email rtaylor_at_scs.unt.edu
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