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Title: IranEurope Dialogue on Central Asia and Caucasia CA


1
Iran-Europe Dialogue on Central Asia and Caucasia
(CAA)
  • Abbas Maleki
  • Roundtable on Iran and European Union
    Cooperation in Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and
    Caucasus
  • Institute for Caspian Studies
  • March 11, 2007

2
Sources of Instability
  • -Radical approaches to Islam
  • -The lack of sustainable economic development
  • -Energy and its Route
  • -Effort to change the lifestyle of the peoples in
    the region
  • -Corruption
  • -Policies of dominated powers in the region
  • -Ethnic violence
  • -Drug Trafficking

3
Radical approaches to Islam
  • Different interpretation of Islam in the CAC is
    one of instability sources. Specifically, the
    extreme perceptions of Islamic culture as
    different groups like Hizbuttahrir are proposing.
  • A rigid, radical and unpopular version of Islam
    which is very hard for the people to obey it.

4
Lack of sustainable development
  • Total population of the CAC is 73 millions
  • -68 of 8 million in Azerbaijan, under
    the poverty line
  • -35 15 Kazakhstan
  • -51 5 Kirgizstan

  • -GDP/Capita
  • -Tajikistan 180
  • -Kirgizstan 270
  • -Uzbekistan 360

  • -Armenia 520
  • -Azerbaijan 600
  • -Georgia 630
  • -Turkmenistan 750
  • -Kazakhstan 1260

5
Energy export is not very high
  • Armenia 0.3 US billion Dollars
  • Georgia 0.3
  • Kyrgyzstan 0.5
  • Tajikistan 0.8
  • Azerbaijan 1.8
  • Turkmenistan 2.7
  • Uzbekistan 3.0
  • Kazakhstan 9.1
  • Compare with Saudi 135 and Iran 55 US billion

6
Orchestrated efforts by West to change the
lifestyle of the peoples in CAC
  • Activities of rulers to weakening traditions,
    customs
  • Neglected NGOs
  • Example Kazakhstan advertisement in IHT, Nov.
    12, 2003 title "Kz is the outpost of struggle
    against fundamentalism". Kz is the only country
    in the region in which Islamic opposition does
    not really exist. Religion has never played an
    important role in Kz, while Muslim organizations
    have been influential in neighboring Uz and
    Td..This means that the Kazakhs are catching on
    to Western lifestyle and values.
  • The question is who is living with Kazakh
    lifestyle and values in future?

7
Corruption
  • There is no good governance in the region
  • -Most of the Governments are totalitarian
    regimes
  • -Most of the rulers are the former Secretary
    General of local Communist Parties.
  • -Corruption Index shows
  • -Azerbaijan is the 4th most corrupted
    country
  • -Russia is the 7th
  • -Kazakhstan is the 20th

8
Energy in CAC
  • Energy is one of the resources that could support
    the development
  • But the geopolitics of pipelines is the key
    factor for the phenomenon of new dependency to
    other countries
  • Russia is trying to dominate all of energy
    infrastructure in Eurasia

9
Energy Routes at a Glance
10
Middle East Sub Region
11
Asian Identity
12
(No Transcript)
13
ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization)
14
Iran and CAC
  • Iran has shown a rational, modest and economic
    oriented model in the CAC.
  • Irans activities for
  • -Establishing ceasefire in Nagorno
    Karabakh in 1994.
  • -Success to end the Tajik civil war is
    among them.
  • -Iran was eager to see more cooperation
    among CAC, proposed them the membership of ECO,
    establishment of CASCO in 1992.
  • -An observer in Shanghai Cooperation
    Organization
  • -Road and Rail networks for landlocked
    countries

15
IranA look at the energy sector
  • Iran has very ambitious plans in oil, gas and
    petrochemicals
  • Though the strategy on oil production capacity
    increase remains a key debate topic, major
    investments in this sector are inevitable
  • The legal framework remains an issue, though slow
    changes are taking shape
  • Irans focus in the next decade will be on gas
    and also gas-intensive industries
  • Next important event Restructuring of NIOC and
    consequent corporatization of the energy sector
    companies.

Investments needed in Irans energy sector
2005-2020
16
KTI
17
Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran Pipeline
  • Study in process in accordance with the Agreement
    on Joint Studies concluded between KazMunayGas,
    Total, Japan National Oil Corporation, and Inpex
  • A Long-Term Export Option for Delivering Kazakh
    Oil to Asian Markets via Persian Gulf

18
Caspian Oil Terminals and Neka
19
Neka-Ray Old and New Pipeline (370 000 b/d)
20
Irans Free Zones in the North
21
North-South Corridor
22
Great Central Asia Routes
23
20
13.6
11
24
Iran-Europe Energy Dialogue
  • The gas pipeline from CA to Iran then Europe is a
    key project in trilateral cooperation among three
    regions.
  • The study of the two routes from Iran to Europe
    via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.

25
Energy
  • Iran is energy giant, one of its feet on the
    Persian Gulf, another on the Caspian, with
    geostrategic advantages.
  • Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most
    important of them Russia, Iran and Qatar.
  • For Europe, the importance of CAC is
    dramatically increased, because member ship of
    each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU
    means a new demand for Energy.

26
Energy (2)
  • -Iran can decrease isolation of central Asia
    dramatically.
  • Iran now imports gas from Turkmenistan to consume
    in the Northern part of Iran, as imports oil from
    Kazakhstan.
  • Iran is end-user of the produced oil and gas in
    the CAC

27
Potential New Supplies to Europe with
Diversification of Supply
  • Caspian Sea region Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan,
    Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
  • Middle East region Iran, Iraq
  • North Africa region Egypt, Libya

28
Iran-Europe Energy Dialogue Restraints
  • Freidman Muller has discussed, in the past with
    political motivation, Europe preferred to follow
    the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and
    costless Iranian gas. Now again, because of US
    extraterritorial rules like 1995 ILSA, the oil
    and gas companies can not invest more than 20
    million dollars in Iran's energy industries.

29
World NG Consumption
30
EU NATURAL GAS DEMAND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2003 - 2025
Source EUROGAS Report 2004
6
31
Proved natural gas reserves at end 2006
32
Sources of Natural Gas Supply - European Union
2030 Indigenous Imports 80 Product
ion 20
2003 Indigenous Net Imports 51 Produ
ction 49
2002 Indigenous Net Imports 47 Produ
ction 53
14
14
18
19
49
53
12
12
3
6
Source EU-forecast, EU Energy, Issue 86, July
2nd, 2004
Source Eurogas
33
Forecast of Gas Supply OECD Europe
Source Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets -
LNG and power at a turning point, Edition 2004
(OECD/IEA)
34
Nabucco
  • New gas supply route to Europe from
  • Turkey to Austria
  • via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary

35
Project Partners
  • OMV
  • OMV Gas GmbH, Austria
  • MOL
  • MOL Natural Gas Transmission Ltd., Hungary
  • Transgaz
  • S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A., Romania
  • Bulgargaz
  • Bulgargaz EAD, Bulgaria
  • BOTAS
  • Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, Turkey

36
Nabucco corporate structure
37
Missing link between giant gas sources (in bcm)
and potential markets
4,000
47,570
1,770
33,530
4,520
38
Supply Sources for Nabucco
Azerbaidschan 10-14 bcm
Egypt
Iran 10-20 bcm
Iraq
8-10 bcm
39
Nabucco Gas Pipeline Strategic Goals of Project
  • Opening a new gas supply corridor for Europe from
    Middle East and Caspian regions
  • Raise transit profiles of participating project
    countries
  • Contribution to security of supply for partner
    countries and for Europe as a whole
  • Strengthening the turntable position of Austrian
    pipeline grid and the Hub Baumgarten within the
    European network

40
Feasibility Study Phase - Findings Technical Study
Routing corridor defined Border crossings fixed
Pipeline Diameter 56 Distance 3,300 km Invest
ment 4.6 bill.
Project is technically feasible
41
Project Phases
Feasibility Study
Develop- ment
Constr. 1st step
2nd step
Operating Marketing
42
US military around Iran
43
Final thoughts...
  • Central Asia and Caucasus are neighbors of Europe
    and Iran
  • Europe is surrounded by sea of gas, Iran is one
    of them
  • Divergence is important in energy supply
  • Instability in CAC has impacts to the both
    sides
  • Interpretation of Islam is a key factor in these
    areas.
  • Irans path to the free world is Europe via
    North, during tight situation.
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