Automotive News China Conference November 15-18, 2006, Beijing - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 24
About This Presentation
Title:

Automotive News China Conference November 15-18, 2006, Beijing

Description:

China's auto industrial development is a major economic success ... People-centered development concept advanced by the top leadership ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:106
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 25
Provided by: WB248
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Automotive News China Conference November 15-18, 2006, Beijing


1
Automotive News China ConferenceNovember 15-18,
2006, Beijing
  • Urban Transport Challenge and Its Implications to
    the Automobile Manufacturing Industry
  • Zhi Liu
  • World Bank

2
Chinas auto industrial development is a major
economic success
  • China has succeeded in developing a world class
    automotive industry within 10 years.
  • The development of automotive industry drives
    national economic growth.
  • The use of automobiles enhances mobility and
    generates economic benefits to firms and
    households.
  • Improved mobility helps reduce regional disparity
    and enhance regional integration

3
But rapid motorization also causes problems ...
  • Pressure in energy consumption and oil imports
  • Transport increasingly a leading driver of
    overall consumption, contributing more than
    one-third of Chinas total oil consumption
  • Environmental pollution
  • Among 340 cities, 58 do not attain the standards
  • 45-60 of NOx and 85 of CO are from mobile
    sources in most Chinese cities
  • Congestion can affect efficiency of urban
    economies which contributes 80 of the national
    GDP
  • In Beijing average peak-hour speeds on arterial
    roads have declined from 45 km/hr in 1994 to
    about 10 km/hr in 2005

4
Urban transport problems are getting worse
  • Ownership and use of motor vehicles in China are
    heavily concentrated in cities
  • Beijing Experienced tenfold increase of private
    cars in the last 10 years, and widespread
    congestion
  • Shanghai Experienced increases of private cars
    from 10k to 250k in 8 years and rising congestion
  • Shenzhen Traffic accidents are a main cause of
    death, especially among the 20-40 age group
  • Nationwide Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon from
    auto emissions account for nearly 80 of the
    total in urban areas.

5
More cars do not make everyone happier
  • Majority of urban households are car-less
  • Their needs for mobility is seriously
    under-served by public policy
  • Road congestion is making bus operations more and
    more difficult
  • Bicycle right-of-way, pedestrian sidewalks, and
    roadside trees are often replaced by motor
    vehicle lanes and parking
  • Car-owning population often stuck in traffic jam

6
The problems have spillover effects

7
Spillover effects are threatening the overall
sustainability
  • Slow and congested transport system stifles the
    efficiency of the urban economy
  • Excessive conversion of farmland for urban
    development wastes scarce resources
  • Excessive investment in urban transport incurs
    heavy financial liabilities
  • Rising fuel consumption endangers the nations
    long-run energy security
  • Growing green house gas (GHG) emissions is
    increasingly an international concern

8
Rapid urbanization is putting heavy pressure on
urban transport
  • Urbanization is accompanied by
  • Rising household incomes that increase demand for
    private cars
  • Transformation from farms to firms that results
    in urban migration, growing demand for urban
    space, and the formation of large metropolitan
    areas
  • Changes in living style that creates a more
    diversified range of travel demand
  • Changes in urban land use patterns that is
    increasingly dependent on motorized transport

9
Metropolitan areas are taking shape and are the
engines of economic growth
10
All problems are expected to exacerbate unless
public policy manage to address them
  • China will be more urbanized, cities will become
    bigger and commuting distance longer
  • Strong economic forces and incentives will
    continue to drive motorization, significantly
    increasing fuel consumption and GHG emissions
  • Cities will face major problems in
  • Traffic congestion
  • air pollution
  • Worsening social inequality

11
Motorization process should be carefully managed
  • Motorization brings benefits and costs to the
    economy and society
  • This is true in China and elsewhere, but the
    difference lies in the number of cars per 1,000
    population 9 in China vs. 700 in USA
  • Big market potential and big challenges
  • The process must be carefully managed to minimize
    the social and environmental costs

12
What are the solutions ???
13
The solutions have to be comprehensive
  • There is no one-time technology fix
  • We cannot build out of congestion
  • Policy measures and new technologies are both
    needed

14

Various policy measures are increasingly adopted
by cities around the world
  • Policy to give priority to bus transport
  • Policy to promote energy-saving, compact city
    land use development
  • Demand-side management
  • Auto ownership control
  • Higher taxes
  • Quotas
  • Auto usage control
  • Non-pricing access control
  • Congestion pricing

15
Environmentally friendly technologies are
emerging
  • Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)
  • Cleaner fuel such as compressed natural gas (CNG)
  • Small conventional gasoline vehicles
  • Small electric vehicles

16
A combination of policy measures and new
technologies could achieve desirable outcomes
  • A study by Ng and Shipper (2006) of World
    Resource Institute analyzes energy consumption
    and GHG emissions under three scenarios
  • Road ahead
  • Oil saved
  • City-saved

17
Scenario 1 Road aheadKey assumptions
  • Current growth rate of motorization
  • Current fuel prices
  • Conventional gasoline vehicles as the dominant
    vehicular technology

18
Scenario 2 Oil savedKey assumptions
  • Current growth rate of motorization
  • Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) to gain 15 of the
    market by 2010 and 50 by 2020
  • Higher market penetration of CNG and small
    electric vehicles
  • A higher share of smaller vehicles in the fleet
  • Higher oil prices including Japanese/European
    level of taxation on fuels, that would reduce
    average vehicle utilization

19
Scenario 3 City savedKey assumptions
  • One more step beyond the oil-saved scenario
  • Allowing a lower level of vehicle utilization as
    a result of compact city development and better
    public transport services
  • Hybrids, together with small electric and CNG
    vehicles will dominate the market
  • Conventional gasoline vehicles only constitute 30
    percent of the total market
  • There would significant congestion charges on
    vehicle use in cities

20
Potential pay-off from comprehensive
interventions is high
21
The political context is shifting in favor of
sustainable urban transport
  • Green-GDP concept proposed and being
    operationalized
  • People-centered development concept advanced by
    the top leadership
  • Energy saving society and compact city
    development emphasized
  • Public transport received attention from highest
    level leadership
  • Public opinions increasingly heard and
    influential

22
Looking forward
  • Cities will increasingly adopt policy measures
    (including emission standards) and promote new
    technologies to manage motorization
  • Various technology-forcing policies may emerge
    (such as the 1970 Clean Air Act in the US)

23
Corporate Social Responsibility
  • Automobile manufacturers are increasingly
    committed to the Corporate Social Responsibility
  • This means delivery of cleaner, safer, more
    fuel-efficient, and more affordable vehicles to
    consumers
  • In addition to cost, quality and product
    differentiation, corporate social image is a new
    dimension in industrial competition

24
  • THANK YOU
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com