Climate change and Water Management

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Climate change and Water Management

• Policy options for the future

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Climate change dealing with uncertainties

• Temperature rise
• Sea level rise
• Precipitation patterns
• River discharges averages and peak discharges
• Storm surges and hurricanes

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Risks with respect to water management

• Changes in flood risks coastal and river areas
• Changes in water availability and drought risks
• Salinization of deltas
• Increased risks of urban flooding

According to IPCC effects of climate change may
be prominent in second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008)
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Trend in weather-related disasters 1980-2009

• Data do not allow conclusions about
  relationship climate change and disasters
• Corrected for population growth andeconomic
  growth there is a stabilization

• 2010-2050
• Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion
• Further economic growth
• Vulnerability increases
• Water demand increases

Source Visser et al., in prep
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World water resources

• Salt water 1,05 billion km3 97,5
• Freshwater 35 million km3 2,5

Source UNEP WWAP
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Uncertainties availability ? demand tipping
points
water quantity

• Options
• Increase resource water harvesting
  de-salinization
• Increase resource efficiency households
  industries
• agriculture

Resource variability
Result - Reduced vulnerability - Buying time
2030 2050
time
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Freshwater use world wide

• Households 8
• Industry 22
• Agriculture 70

80 agricultural area rainfed
Source UNEP WWAP
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Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water

• Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70
  in cities
• Economic growth and increasing wealth
• Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients,
  pesticides)
• Changes in diet more meat increases water
  demands
• Globalisation and liberalisation gt shift of food
  productionfrom dry areas to wet areas
• Biomass production water demand gtgt rice and
  wheat
• Climate change

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Water demand 2000-2050 increases
Source PBL in OECD
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Population lacking access to improved watersupply
Source PBL in OECD
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Population lacking access to improved sanitation
Urban
Rural
Source PBL in OECD
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Diet change increases water demand

• water use/kg
• Cattle 15 m3
• Sheeps/goats 10 m3
• Poultry 6 m3
• Rice 3 m3
• Wheat 1,5 m3
• Citrus 1 m3

Source FAO
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Shift of food production increases water stress
Source PBL in OECD WUR
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Water embedded in complex interactions
Food import
international networks
Urban developments

• Export
• food
• biomass

food migration capital land conversion
capital food .
Rural Nature developments
Capital driven agriculture
Water and food- security not only a matter of
water
national foreign investors
water land conversion labour emissions
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Role of water management

• Main drivers out of reach
• Water needs to be integrated in economic
  analyses- optimizing crop per drop
  (production/m3 , /m3)- /m3 agriculture ?
  /m3 competing activities-
  ecosystemservices-
• Contribution to fair sharing between nations,
  between people, between sectors (nature,
  ecosystems)
• Basis analysis on scale of river basins!

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Integrated water basin management
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Interactions upstream/downstream
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complex thematic interactions
Land use Water use
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Wide variety of policy instruments

• Information behavioural changes
• Standards waterquality nutrients
  other emissions
• Water permits, water rights
• Land use planning
• Technology improving resource eff.
  de-salinisation
• Cutting perverse subsidies
• Introduce positive subsidies
• ..

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Future challenges

• Strategic
• Integration of water and climate in economical
  and political strategies
• Powerfull economical analyses on river basin
  scale for informed decisions on water allocation
  and use (River Basin Committees ? National
  governments)
• Water is cross-cutting issue supra-sectoral
  approach required withincontext of water basins
• Guiding principles sustainable use and fair
  sharing
• Technology
• Sharp improvement of resource efficiency
  especially in agriculture
• De-salinization based on renewable and cheap
  energy
• Water-harvesting techniques

Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
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Climate Change and Water Management
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Enormous geographical differences

• No silver bullets area-specific analyses and
  approaches needed

Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
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Climate Change and Water Management
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Thank you !
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
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Climate Change and Water Management