Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency

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Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather
Agency

• Mark T. Surmeier Deputy Director
• Air and Space Science
• Air Force Weather Agency
• Offutt AFB NE

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Overview

• AFWA Mission
• Historical NWP Environment
• Historical NWP Environment MM5
• Current NWP Environment
• Next NWP Environment WRF

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AFWA Mission
Deliver to our Nations combat forces anytime
anyplace the highest quality mission-tailored
information products and services relating to
the terrestrial and space environment....from the
mud to the sun.
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Historical NWP Environment

• First Operational Use of NWP by USAF
• History 4th Weather Group Jan Dec 1954
• Introduced the Numerical Predictions Project
• Conceived at Air Force Cambridge Research Center
  (RD)
• Programmed for operational establishment (USAF
  Weather Central) on 1 July 1954 at Andrews AF
  Base as a joint WBAN project
• Regional baroclinic model 300km grid US domain
  36hr
• IBM 701 (2048 36-bit words)

IBM 701
http//www.columbia.edu/acis/history/701.html
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Historical NWP Environment

• 1955 USAF Weather Central (NWP focus) Moved to
  Suitland MD
• 1957 USAF Weather Central Moved to Offutt AFB
  NE to Combine with the Global Weather Central
• 1958 First Automated contrail Forecasts
• 1960 Global Weather Central Purchased its First
  Computer an IBM 7090
• 1961 Began Computer Wind Factor Forecasts Added
  IBM 1401

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Historical NWP Environment

• 1962 Computerized Stratospheric Analyses and
  Numerical Cloud Forecasts Added ITT Automatic
  Data Exchange 6400
• 1963 First Automated Facsimile Charts First
  Receipt of METSAT Data Upgraded the IBM 7090 to
  an IBM 7094
• 1964 Implemented Quasi-geostrophic Prediction
  Model (SIXLVL)
• 381km grid NH 72hr forecast length

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Historical NWP Environment

• 1965 DoD Established the Automated Weather
  NetworkWorldwide High-Speed Data Collection
  Added Terminal to Process METSAT Data from DOC
  Satellites
• 1966 Transmitted NWP-Based Products for Asian
  and European Theaters Added a second IBM 7094
  Computer
• 1967 Installed Four UNIVAC 1108 Computers
• 1970 Computer Flight Plans First Operational
  PBL Model (185km grid 7 layers regional 24hr
  forecast7LVL)

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Historical NWP Environment

• 1972 AWSs Medium Range Forecast Mission Moved
  from Suitland MD to AFGWC Added Fifth
  ComputerUNIVAC 1110
• 1974 AWS Primitive Equation (PE) Model (381km
  res. 7 layers NH 72hr forecast)
• 1976 Upgraded a UNIVAC 1108 to 1110 Added a
  1110
• 1979 Replaced 3 UNIVAC 1108s w 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s
• 1982 Replaced 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s with 2 Sperry
  1100/82s

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Historical NWP Environment

• 1986 Advanced Weather Analysis and Prediction
  System (AWAPS)--Global Spectral Model (GSM)
  493km 14lyrs global 96hr fcst High-Resolution
  Analysis System (HIRAS) Cray X-MP Supercomputer
• 1987 Sperry 1100/82s Upgraded to UNISYS 1100/91s

• 1990 Replaced 1100/xxs by One UNISYS
  2200/633Called Weather Information Processing
  System (WIPS)
• 1992 Relocatable Window Model (RWM) (46.3km 16
  lyrs 36 hr)Last component of AWAPS (started in
  86) Initialized w HIRAS

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Historical NWP Environment

• 1992 Quote from one of our Tech Notes
• This the computational cost makes increasing
  the grid resolution an ineffective way to
  increase forecaster skill.
• 1995 AFWA Stopped Using the GSM Global Model as
  Primary (part of the NAVAF Agreement--Used Navy
  NOGAPS Data GSM Used as Back-up into 1997)
• 1996 RWM Run Operationally First
  Visualizations AWAPS-U (IBM SP1 Replaced Cray
  XMP)
• 1998 Discontinued RWM

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 1995 Advanced Concept Technology Demo Using Penn
  State Univ./NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5)
  14-Node IBM SP2 System
• Bosnia window run once per day (NOGAPS
  initialization)
• 25 s Levels
• 27 km Grid Resolution
• 24 Hour Forecast

• 1996
• Expanded IBM SP-2 Production System to 21 Nodes
• Accelerated System Growth

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 1997
• Added Southwest Asia CONUS Windows

• Implemented worldwide relocatability (FSL/ANL
  assist)
• Selected Contractor for Global Theater Weather
  Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS)--TRW IBM
  SP-2
• 1998
• New IBM SP-2 Production system 66 T4 nodes and 4
  W3 nodes

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 1999
• Ran 18 theaters per day 80GB/day of model output
  data over 90000 GIF images
• Images are made available to meteorologists in
  the field through AFWIN (Air Force Weather
  Information Network) over the Internet

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 1999
• Parallelized MM5 and supporting applications--
  significant decreases in application run times
  achieved
• Added IBM Silver node production system (110
  nodes 4 CPUs per node 332MHz)
• Provided 2.5 Gigaflops per node
• GTWAPS evolved from a single system two-frame SP
  into a six-system eighteen-frame SP
• 41 s levels 72 Hour Forecast 36 12 and 4 km
  Grid Spacing

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Historical NWP Environment MM5
From 12 gigaflops in October 1997

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 1999

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2000
• Optimized windows
• Less overlap-- faster processing more coverage
• Focused on current requirements (theaters
  coverage etc.)
• Projected processing timeline changes based on
  the cumulative effects of the following
• OWS Incremental receipt of MMLITE GriB files
• OWS Incremental post-processing (all
  parameters)
• OWS Incremental visualizations
• AFWA Domain Forecast Length and Output
  Frequency changes based on new window plan
• Overall impact products available at the OWSs
  roughly 1½ hours earlier
• 300000 products per day

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2000
• Visualization Boom
• MIKE Interactive GrADS application (generated
  customizable 2-D BW charts
• Added more post-processed data types
• Combined all visualization packages into single
  GUI
• Created 2-panel and 4-panel chart options
• IMaST Increase Skew-T vertical resolution

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2001
• Implemented Mesoscale Data Assimilation System
  (MDAS) and Multi-Variate Optimal Interpolation
  (MVOI)
• Tropical Storm Bogusing capability for Tropical
  Theaters (improved track and intensity forecasts
  for TCs worldwide)
• AFWA MM5 Window Configurations
• Eighteen 45-km theaters (14 regular 4 Tropical)
  (Also T1 - T6 4x daily)
• Eleven 15-km nests
• Two 5-km nests
• Total of 37 windows every 12 hours
• 80 earth coverage 98 land coverage

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2001
• MM5 Model Runs Produced on Two Production
  Platforms Prod 2 and Prod 3
• 94 IBM Silver nodes and 41 WH II nodes
  respectively
• 625 Gflops

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2001
• Added Capability to Initialize with NCEPs
  AVN/MRF
• Parameterizations in use for MM5
• Cumulus Grell for 45 and 15km explicit for 5km
• Planetary boundary layer (PBL) MRF
• Explicit moisture Mixed phase (a.k.a. Reisner
  I)
• Radiation Cloud radiation
• Ground temperature Five layer soil
• Post-processing
• Raw MM5 output used to derive over 100 forecast
  parameters
• Algorithms developed by AFWA and external labs
• AFWIN products (over 400000 per day 170000
  GrADS and 231660 Vis5D)
• TrimGriB capability (tailored gridded data sets)

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2001
• Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5
• Integration of WRF Early Release into AFWA
  Processing Environment
• MM5 Integrated with Other AFWA Models
• Land Surface Model (near-global land-surface
  analysis model)
• Real-Time Cloud Analysis (RTNEPH/CDFS-II global
  cloud analysis models forecaster enhanced)
• Advect Cloud (ADVCLD) High-Res Cloud Prog
  (HRCP) C-MNS fine resolution cloud forecasts
  (forecaster enhanced global cloud trajectory
  forecast models)
• Snow Analysis (global snow ice areas
  forecaster enhanced)
• Surface Temperature (global temperature analysis
  model)

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2002
• Improved Objective and Subjective Verification of
  MM5
• Redesigned JAAWIN
• Operational Implementation of MM5-V3-R5.2
  (improved boundary layer physics)

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2002
• Added 2 and 10 meter output of T RH u- and v-
  winds
• Reduced model biases of forecasts T Td wind
  speed wind direction ceiling and visibility
• MM5-V3-R5.3 Operational Implementation (added
  options for unified-LSM and improved polar
  physics)

• MM5 3DVAR Operational Implementation
  (state-of-the-art data assimilation system at
  front end of MM5 replaced MVOI)

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2003
• Linked to Defense Research and Engineering
  Network (DREN)High bandwidth to use HPC centers
• Established Classified Modeling Capability
  (Operational in 2004)
• Established Visiting Scientist Position
  (assimilation) at JCSDA
• Completed Common High-performance S/W Support
  Initiative (1.5M over 3 yrsWRF and WRF 3DVAR
  development)

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Historical NWP Environment MM5

• 2003
• Collaborated with FNMOC to Establish
  Fine-Resolution MM5 and COAMPS Windows for SWA
  Operations

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Current NWP Environment MM5

• 2003

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Next NWP Environment WRF

• 2004
• Halted MM5 Technology Enhancement Efforts for WRF
• WRF is a Community Model Built in the Same Spirit
  as MM5 but is Designed for Greater Expansion
  (numerics physics and initialization)
• WRF is Designed for Cloud Scale Phenomena (1-10
  km horiz. res. grids) that are not Explicitly
  Calculated and are not Currently Forecasted Well
• WRF Addresses Key Warfighter and National
  Security Effectiveness Issues Caused by Weather
• Signed WRF National Concept of Operations
  Framework with NCEP and FNMOC

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Next NWP Environment WRF

• 2004
• Running WRF V1.2 /1.3 Retrospective Tests at NAVO
  MSRC and AFWA (executing community WRF Tests)
• Several thousand runs 7 regions 8 physics
  configs
• gt1000 test runs SW Asia at 15km 18 physics
  configs
• Performance results being tabulated subjective
  review positive
• DoD HPCMO funded 3M Navy/AF Distributed Center
  (fields two platforms to conduct WRF operational
  tests)
• Test multiple system configurations
• Determine configurations that best meet DoD and
  service unique mesoscale NWP requirements
• Test operationally capable mesoscale ensemble
  runs
• Prototype and test Grid Computing concepts

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Next NWP Environment WRF

• 2004

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WRF Visualizations--Isabel
18 Sep 03/1500Z AFWA WRF 15km Model Run
20030918 00Z Valid 18/1500Z
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Next NWP Environment WRF

• 2005
• WRF IOC 1 April
• Advanced Data Assimilation System Goals
• Add direct radiance data assimilation to
  WRF-3DVAR
• Exploit emerging satellite data (MODIS NPP
  NPOESS etc.)
• Improve utilization of existing data incorporate
  non-conventional data WRF-4DVAR

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Summary

• The Air Force has a solid position in NWP history
  and is well poised for the future. Since the
  inception of operational use the Air Force has
  put and continues to put its emphasis on
  providing highest quality tailored weather
  products and decision aids for warfighting
  operations.

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Questions