Simulation Scenarios

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Simulation Scenarios
Barry Dainton
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Preliminary (crude) definitions real v. simulated

• An experience is simulated if it is produced by
  non-standard methods in a controlled fashion
• non-standard NOT by bodies/brains interacting
  with physical environment
• Eg. Demons, computers
• A life (or part of one) is virtual if it is
  composed of simulated experiences.

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Just suppose

• That when the universe is considered as a whole,
  from a Gods eye vantage point, simulated lives
  greatly outnumber real lives
• Call this scenario simulation dominance

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Simulation Dominance
virtual
real
sum total of conscious lives (in entire universe,
all times)
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Simulation Argument (one form)

• Simulation Dominance is probable
• No reason to think
• human lives are less likely to be simulated than
  other types
• early C21-type human lives are less likely to be
  simulated than other types
• So it is probable that our lives are simulated.

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The Simulation Argument (Bostrom)

• Simulation Hypothesis for every non-virtual
  early 21st century human life there are many
  subjectively indistinguishable (or broadly
  similar) virtual lives

REAL
VIRTUAL
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Simulation Argument cont.

• Your conviction that your life is non-virtual is
  no better founded than anybody elses.
• So if the Simulation Hypothesis is true, the
  odds of your life being non-virtual are low (e.g.
  1 in 10)

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Everyone believes their own lives to be real,
non-virtual
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
R
R
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
Im real!
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Simulation Argument conclusion
High probability
Low probability
My life is real
SH is true
Low probability
High probability
Probability assignments (not to scale)
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An old theme with a new twist
The Matrix
Tipler
The Truman Show
Are we leading virtual lives?
Bostrom
Vanilla Sky
Are we living in a simulation?
Chalmers
Permutation City
McGinn
and sudden notoriety
The 13th Floor
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Could my life be a simulation?
Threat idle
Logically Possible (merely)
Descartes?
Nomologically possible (merely)
Standard vat-brains? Most sci-fi?
Threat real!
Simulation Argument
Nomologically possible ( quite likely!)
Tipler, Bostrom, posthumanists
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My aims here
Simulation Argument conclusion take
simulation menace (somewhat) seriously
extend range
address queries
explore ramifications
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Next Why believe menacing simulations might
exist in the required (vast) numbers?
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Another distinction
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• S-simulations
• conscious lives generated by running software on
  computer
• (NOT brains!)

• H-simulations
• conscious lives produced by directly tampering
  with neural hardware
• Matrix-style
• vat-brain

COMPUTER ALONE
COMPUTER BRAIN
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S-sims the high-road
posthumanism
computers of VAST power
repositories of most conscious life
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Tipler
Bostrom
Planetary-mass computer 1042 ops
Time required for running of ancestor
simulation 10-7 seconds
(one of many)
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Ancestor simulation simulation of entire
mental history of humankind
Typical human brain operations per second 1014
- 1017
Ops required for 1 ancestor simulation 1032-35

• 100 billion humans x 50 years/human x 3 million
  secs per year x 1014 1017 ops per brain per
  second

(assumption humankind superseded in a few
centuries)
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S-simulations low road
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Desktop PC Power next few years
typical human brain
2030-40
Moores Law computational power per doubles
every two years
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S-simulations low road

• Small-scale sims on small machines (e.g.
  desktop)
• In large numbers
• entertainment God-games (The Sims)
• research historical, political
• E.g. exploring counterfactual histories
• Over many years (a few centuries)
• billions of menacing simulations

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God games The Sims, Civilization, etc.

• Currently, their inhabitants are not conscious
• In future that could change
• more processing power/memory
• more autonomous characters -gt more entertaining
  spectacles

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An ordinary (virtual) family The Sims
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Sample numbers

• 20 million simulated T(2003) day-streams per year
• assume very large future population
• For 100,000 years
• assume quite long future
• Total of 2000 billion menacing d-streams
• So significant simulation menace (50)
• approx 2000 billion actual 2003 d-streams

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S-simulations how great a menace?
programming know-how
time
virtual lives in VAST numbers
computational power
inclination
presupposes very controversial theory of mind
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Q How worrying is the computational simulation
menace?
Its not!
Very!
classical functionalism
materialism
non-reductive functionalism
classical dualism
Shoemaker Lycan Loar Chalmers
Descartes Smart/Place Searle Strawson McGinn
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Broadeningappeal of Sim. Arg.
Other sources of menacing simulations
H-SIMS
sims run on brains
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Neural interface technology
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H-SIMS high road
brain-computer interface
gene manipulation
nano- engineered
fully immersive VR
psychology
perception
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H-SIMS low road
controlled hallucinations
implant assisted
drug assisted
exploit known brain potential
fully immersive VR
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One scenario VR in education

• Imagine a typical 23rd century history lesson
• Topic life as an ordinary 21st century person
• Method fully immersive virtual reality trip to
  the past
• Spend a few hours AS an ordinary 21st century
  person

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H-sims will the technologies ever be developed?

• It is hard for us to envisage how (say)
  brain-machine interfaces of the kind required
  could be designed implemented.
• But remember Arthur C. Clarkes Third Law
  Any sufficiently advanced technology is
  indistinguishable from magic
• Think what would a 19th century person have made
  of modern computers, atomic weapons, genetic
  manipulation, etc.

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H-sims technology further reasons for optimism

• Neuroscience we still have much to learn
• Research in nano-technology, programmable matter
  continues apace
• Money no problem entertainment industry
• computer games bigger than movies
• MMOG phenomenon indicator of whats to come?

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MMOG
massive multiplayer online gaming
persistent world games
Ultima Online Everquest Anarchy Online .
participants 120,000 (simul)
notoriously addictive
MMPORG
massive, multiplayer, online role-playing game
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MMOG screenshots
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MMOG
MMPORG

Big money in sim technology!
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H-sims relevant prediction
VR trips to the past
if possible
VERY numerous
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VR-vacations sample numbers

• Actual 2003 d-streams 2 x 1012
• Assume
• every sim-age person takes 1 trip to early 21st
  century
• 10,000 sim-age generations
• average sim-age population 10 billion
• Yields 1.0 x 1014 virtual streams
• So 1/50 chance of your life being real

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Menacing Simulations further possible source
MODAL REALISM
menacing S-sims infinite
menacing H-sims infinite
Lewis, Tegmark
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MODAL REALISM
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real lives
virtual lives
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50 chance of virtuality
MANY WORLDS?
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Where do we stand?
A. Humankind will have a long and successful
future.
B. Technology will make realistic sims possible,
and these will be created frequently, in varied
forms.
tension
C. You and I exist in the early 21st century
tension
D. Modal Realism is true.
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High probability
More confident
These experiences occur in 2003
A B true
C true
Less confident
Low probability
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Pragmatic
Theology
Ethics
Sim Arg implications
Epistemology
Metaphysics
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Scepticism traditional response
Of course this life is real!
COMBAT!
establish that concern is unwarranted
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Sim Era Scepticism menace of the virtual very
real
Assume reality is largely as our experience
suggests (physical law, history, etc.)
Take a few VR-trips threat will feel real
significant probability that your life virtual
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Objection
Sim-scepticism self-undermining
Sim threat not real
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Recall the basic line of reasoning
And see how it defeats itself
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My life is non-virtual
Simulation Argument
My world has properties F, G ..
High odds that I am living in a simulation
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My life is non-virtual
Simulation Argument
My world has properties F, G
High odds that I am living in a simulation
?
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Steps to a vicious, epistemically unstable, loop

• Certain beliefs about the character of the world
  lead you to believe that it is likely that you
  are living in a simulation.
• But the latter belief undermines the former
  beliefs
• If you believe you inhabit a sim, why believe
  your experience is a reliable guide to how things
  really are?
• Your grounds for assigning a high probability to
  the sim hypothesis are no more

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Loop concluded and relaunched

• So you no longer have reason to believe you are
  living in a simulation.
• You conclude things are much as they seem.
• But if things are much as they seem, there is a
  good chance that you are living in a simulation
  .
• And the loop repeats .

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One response entrenchment
Anyone who initially assigns high probability to
sim hypothesis is always returned to their
initial state
So rejecting the Sim Arg and returning to
reality is is not a stable option
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A problematic ( puzzling) symmetry
Rejecting Sim Arg not a stable option
Accepting Sim Arg not a stable option
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Question
Rejecting Sim Arg not a stable option
Accepting Sim Arg not a stable option
Can the Sim Arg leave one in an epistemically
stable situation?
Maybe
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A suspect equation.
Traditional demon hypothesis
Naturalistic simulation hypotheses
No
Yes
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Simulation Realism variants

• Full simulation is perfect duplication of actual
  world
• Partial simulation is accurate in some respects
• physics
• biology
• history
• personalities

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S-realism

• Simulations with high S-realism resemble the
  actual world in ways relevant to the assessment
  of the Simulation Hypothesis (i.e. that there are
  high odds that your life is virtual)
• laws of nature, technological possibilities,
  social trends, etc.
• Modest claim at least 75 of current fictions
  (films, novels, computer games) have high
  S-realism
• Modest prediction at least 50 of future
  fictions will have high S-realism

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80 chance I am living in a simulation
My world is broadly as it seems low odds that
my life is virtual
Sim Arg
My world is broadly as it seems good
chance that my life is a simulation
Simulations with high S-realism 50
40 chance I am living in a simulation
Steps to an epistemically stable situation
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• (a) the world is broadly as I believe it to be
  (physical laws, history, technological trends)
• (b) the probability that I am living in a
  simulation is quite high
• Claim
• These two beliefs are consistent, provided that
  under (a) you believe that most future
  simulations are likely to supply a broadly
  accurate picture of reality

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Moving swiftly on
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Theology Problem of Evil
distribution of pointless suffering
real
virtual worlds / lives
most evil directly due to humankind
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Metaphysics varieties of VR
H-sims v S-sims
Autonomous v. Programmed actions
Active v Passive
Others are real (active) or merely apparent.
Communal v. Individual
Original v Replacement Psychology
Your own psychology, or another one
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Active Individual Original Psy Active
Individual Replacement Psy
Active Communal Original Psy Active
Communal Replacement Psy
H or S
Passive Individual Original Psy Passive
Individual Replacement Psy
Passive Communal Original Psy Passive
Communal Replacement Psy
16 modes
The Matrix active, communal, original ?
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Simulation Scenarios as Metaphysical Hypotheses,
not Sceptical Hypotheses (Chalmers)

• If we were simulants, most of our beliefs about
  our world would still be true
• But our world would have a different nature than
  we commonly believe
• e.g. physical things are constituted by
  computational processes
• Some plausibility for COMMUNAL sims

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Pragmatic Issues
Should I be depressed?
Should I act differently?
My life is unusually interesting does this
increase the odds?
My life is boring does this reduce the odds?
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The price of fame high sim odds
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But my life is too dull
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No life is too dull!
The Sims bestselling computer game for the
past three years
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Simulation Ethics
Creation Issues
Maintenance Issues
Question might ethical scruples diminish the
menace posed by the Simulation Argument?
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Deception Objection
Does the wrong outweigh the gift of existence?
Sim subjects are being deceived about their real
condition. Its wrong to deceive in this way.
H-sims, VR-vacations deception temporary
self-imposed!
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Self-Interest Objection
Cant guarantee policy will be continued
Future generations will restrict sims to secure
their own reality
Opposing forces escapism, entertainment industry
Realization innocence cannot be recaptured
implications for us
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Sim innocence cant be regained, but can be
simulated
popularity (no. of simulations/visits)
2003
sim age
innocence
100,000 AD
transition
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Concluding speculations Might We Be In a
Minority?
dont
take sim threat seriously
us
sum total of intelligent conscious beings
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A further (final?) Copernican shift
virtual
real
sum total of conscious lives