United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Convention on longrange transboundary air pollution Ta

1
United Nations Economic Commission for
EuropeConvention on long-range transboundary air
pollutionTask Force on Integrated Assessment
Modelling
Workshop on linkages and synergies of regional
and global emission control Laxenburg, January
27-29, 2003 Should Climate Change also
change the design and assessment modelling of
regional air pollution control strategies ? Guy
Landrieu INERIS National Focal Point for
IAM The author is indebted to the Mission
Interministérielle de l'Effet de Serre and Mark
Tuddenham for information found in their document
Que serait une société sobre en carbone ?. But
the contribution, of an unofficial nature,
represents only the authors point of view.
http//www.effet-de-serre.gouv.fr/fr/solutions/B
ilanMTpdf.pdf
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Should Climate Change also change the design and
assessment modelling of regional air pollution
control strategies ?
Since there is linkages and synergies of regional
and global emission control, there should be also
linkages and synergies of Integrated Assessment
Modelling activities concerning Climate Change
policies and the parallel activities in the field
of LRTAP (or CAFE). It seems that the ideas
about Climate Change policies - and the content
of corresponding IAM activities - are, these
days, evolving rapidly. As a contribution to the
discussion, the presentation will try, if not a
review, at least an illustration of the subject
by a few examples.

• What European policy-makers are saying
• about Climate Change policies ?
• What kind of IA studies provide food for their
  thought ?
• Is there consequences for future
• LRTAP / CAFE Integrated Assessment Modelling ?

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The United Nations climate change framework

• "The ultimate objective of the Convention, is to
  achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system
• The Kyoto Protocol
• is a first step to actually reduce emissions
• offers the opportunity to begin the transition
  to low-carbon production and consumption
  patterns. 
• Joke Waller-Hunter
• Executive Secretary of the UNFCC
• Plenary Statement at the WSSD, Johannesburg, 30
  August 2002
• http//unfccc.int/press/prel2002/pressrel300802_ws
  sd.pdf
• "Starting action today, we must continue to work
  on long-term solutions beyond the first
  commitments under the Kyoto Protocol."
• http//www.un.org/Pubs/chronicle/2002/issue3/0302p
  47_climate_change.html

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The United Nations climate change framework (2)

• "The Climate Change Convention is not about
  conservation and pollution abatement in the usual
  sense of those terms.
• It is a convention on the sustainable development
  of the global economy"
• Michael Zammit Cutajar
• Executive Secretary of the UNFCC
• Press Release, Bonn/New York, 30 January 2002
• http//unfccc.int/press/prel2002/pressrel300102.pd
  f

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A French view

• (After the Kyoto protocol) it will be necessary
  to divide by two the world greenhouse gases
  emissions before 2050,
• That objective means an objective two times more
  rapid, two times more ambitious for the
  industrialised countries,
• We must undertake that strong action, by aiming
  at a progress in energy efficiency at about 3
  per year.
• Jean Pierre Raffarin,
• Prime Minister,
• Annual Conference to Review Implementation of the
• National Programme for Tackling Climate Change,
• Lyon, 27 November 2002
• http//www.effet-de-serre.gouv.fr/indexe.cfm

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A French view (2)

• "For limiting the consequences on climate
  warming,
• it would be necessary to reduce the
  (world)
• emissions under 3 Giga-tonnes " carbon
  equivalent " per year.
• Equitably distributed for 6 billion inhabitants,
• this figure leads each earthman to dispose
  of
• an "emission right  of 500 kg carbon
  equivalent per year
• Today, an American emits, on average, 11 times as
  much as this threshold, a German 6 times, a
  French 4 times and a Chinese 1.5.
• At the opposite, an Indian emits 40 less
  and a Nepalese 1/14th of this threshold."
• Governmental seminar on Sustainable Development
• November 28, 2002
• Introductory dossier realised by IFEN (French
  Institute for the Environment)
• at the request of the Ministry for Ecology and
  Sustainable Development
• http//www.environnement.gouv.fr/telch/2002-t4/dos
  sier-seminaire28novembre2002.pdf

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The German perspective

• " It was the conclusion of the German Bundestag's
  Study Commission on Climate Change that emissions
  from industrialised countries would have to be
  cut by 80 by 2050."
• Kurt-Dieter Grill, MdB
• Chairman of the Bundestags Study Commission
•  Nachhaltige Energieversorgung , July 2002
• http//www.bundestag.de/gremien/ener/index.html
• "Germany is prepared to reduce its greenhouse gas
  emissions by the year 2020 by 40 below 1990
  levels, provided the EU reduces its emissions by
  30 and other countries adopt similar ambitious
  targets."
• Jürgen Trittin
• Federal Minister
• Statement at the Ministerial Round Table
• COP8 UNFCCC, New Delhi, 31 October 2002
• http//www.bmu.de/english/topics/speeches/speech_t
  rittin_021031.php?verstext

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The German perspective (2)

• The statements at the level of the German
  government and Bundestag
• have been enlightened by a set of scenarios
  studies
• The reason for such scenarios is not to foresee a
  probable future but to look at the room for
  manoeuvre in the political decision-making.
• The scenarios show that there is a the need of
  important changes, but not insurmountable
  problems, more challenges and opportunities.
• Solution is less a question of individual
  technologies than a global perspective where
  individual technologies are incorporated within
  intelligent approaches.

Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz II,
IKARUS-Anwendungsprojekte des UBA
(2001) Forschungszentrum Jülich, Deutsche
Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung,
Fraunhofer-Institut für Systemtechnik und
Innovationsforschung, Öko-Institut. http//www.bm
bf.de/pub/ forschung_fuer_den_klimaschutz.pdf
Langfristszenarien für eine nachhaltige
Energienutzung in Deutschland Wuppertal Institut
für Klima, Umwelt, Energie, DLR, Institut für
Thermodynamik http//www.umweltbundesamt.org/ fpd
f-k/2135.pdf
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A Switzerland's view

• A 1999 working group of the Swiss Academy of
  Engineering Sciences has estimated that a
  reduction of the Swiss consumption of fossil
  energy of more than 40 would be feasible by the
  year 2020 (compared to 1990), without
  unacceptable impacts for Switzerland's economy
  and society.

Reduction of fossil fuel consumption for
different sectors
In the same perspective, a preceding study by
Prognos AG had proposed a reduction target of
Swiss CO2 emissions of 60 in 2030 (base
1990). Ergänzungen zu den Energieperspektiven
1990-2030, Bundesamt für Energiewirtschaft,
(1997).
http//www.satw.ch/D/satw/organe/CH50en.pdf
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The British view

• " The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution
  has proposed that
• the UK should adopt a strategy which puts the UK
  on a path to reducing
• CO2 emissions by 60 from current levels by 2050
• Credible scenarios for 2050 can deliver a 60 cut
  in CO2 emissions, but
• large changes would be needed both in the energy
  system and in society."
• The Energy Review
• A Performance and Innovation Unit Report
• Cabinet Office, February 2002
• "Climate change has become a central aspect of
  energy policy.
• It is difficult to predict the technological,
  economic and geopolitical changes that will take
  place
• The report makes clear how important it is to
  keep our options open, so that we can respond
  positively to changing circumstances."
• Tony Blair
• Prime Minister
• Foreword to The Energy Review
• http//www.cabinet-office.gov.uk/innovation/2002/e
  nergy/report/img/blairpic.gif

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British views (2)

• "It would be wrong to imagine that everything can
  be "win-win" there will be some hard choices,
  and there will be losers as well as winners.
• Changes in the framework for decision-making (are
  necessary) Policy should consider the central
  role of innovation..."
• The Energy Review

• "The most promising, and just, basis for securing
  long term agreement is to allocate emission
  rights to nations on a per capita basis -
  enshrining the idea that every human is entitled
  to release into the atmosphere the same quantity
  of greenhouse gases.

• But because of the very wide differences between
  per capita emission levels around the world, and
  because current global emissions are already
  above safe levels, there will have to be an
  adjustment period covering several decades in
  which nations' quotas converged on the same per
  capita level. This is the principle of
  contraction and convergence, which we support."
• The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution
• Energy - The Changing Climate, June 2000.
• http//www.rcep.org.uk

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A Dutch analysis of the synergy in the
approachto climate change and acidification
Perspectives for energy and mobility in
the Netherlands in 2030

• Possibilities for achieving the policy target
• have been explored on the basis
• of six perspectives
• Changing economic structure
• Modifying behaviour / consumption patterns
• Improvement in energy efficiency
• Renewable energy
• Clean fossil sources of energy
• Nuclear energy

Emission reduction targets for 2030 set for the
study by the VROM

• "The realisation of all targets can be concluded
  as not implying a change in society, but
  certainly a dramatic transition in the energy
  supply structure...
• As for making choices between the different
  perspectives, it will be hard to base them on
  cost arguments due to the great uncertainty in
  this respect."
• Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN),
  RIVM
• http//www.ecn.nl/library/reports/2000e/c00106.htm
  l

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A Dutch Participatory Integrated Assessment
The Climate
OptiOns for the Long term (COOL) Wageningen
University, Free University of Amsterdam, RIVM
http//www.wau.nl/cool/

• The COOL project (1999 - 2001) is an Integrated
  Assessment project that developed long term
  strategies for reducing GHG emissions by 80 by
  2050.
• Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA)
• "Regarding complex, unstructured environmental
  problems where scientific investigations have
  their limitations, a broader involvement of
  different actors would add meaningful
  information, new insights and a less narrow and
  less technocratic view on causes and solutions.
• Backcasting approach
• "A concern, not with what is likely to happen in
  the future, but with how a desirable future can
  be attained In exploring options for emission
  reduction, the participants started with the
  assumption that a particular option or set of
  options is realised and, from there, looked
  backwards into the opportunities taken and the
  barriers successfully addressed".
• Long-term "trajectories" (packages of options)
  have been identified in four sectors (housing,
  industry energy, agriculture, transport).
• Some recommendations

• Spend adequate time developing a coherent
  long-term strategy !
• Make an IA of the effectiveness of instruments
  and institutions over time !
• Keep options open !

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A EU standpoint

• "Action after 2012 should be consistent with the
  ultimate objective of the Convention
• It is necessary to move towards a globally
  equitable distribution of greenhouse gasses
  However, we do not yet have fixed ideas on where
  to end. By contrary, we keep emphasising the
  importance of beginning a dialogue without
  prejudging the outcome.
• We are thus still looking for a global
  architecture that may induce all quarters to
  embrace a global cooperation. There exist a
  number of long-term frameworks, such as the
  contraction and convergence idea, and the
  so-called Brazilian proposal "
• Thomas Becker
• Danish Environmental Protection Agency,
• Chairman of the EU Council Working Party on
  Climate Change
• Conference to Review Implementation of the French
  TCC Programme, Lyon, 27 November 2002
• For a short presentation of equity aspects in
  climate negotiations,
• cf. Acid News, June 2002 (Swedish NGO Secretariat
  on Acid Rain)

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A critical review of Climate
Change IA studies
The
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)Cost-effective
ness Working Group III
Mitigation http//www.ipcc.ch/

• The analysis generally focus on achieving some
  policy objective at minimum "cost
• In engineering economics calculations performed
  technology-by-technology, the costs and
• emissions reductions from a large number of
  actions are assessed independently and
• aggregated into whole-economy totals to create a
  cost curve...
• There are interactions between the various
  actions on the cost curve the cost and emission
  reduction attached to an action depend on those
  of other actions in the same economy...
• Attention must be paid to the marginal cost
  curve. Very often, indeed, the marginal abatement
  cost of a given target is high, although the
  average abatement cost is reasonably low...
• Defining the baseline is a key part of cost
  assessment The baseline rests on key assumptions
  about future economic policies at the
  macroeconomic and sectoral levels, including
  structure, resource intensity, relative prices,
  technology choice, and the rate of technology
  adoption... (and) on presumptions of future
  development patterns in the economy, like
  population growth, economic growth, and
  technological change...
• The uncertainties as to what the baseline
  circumstances might be are vast, in the light of
  which it is important to evaluate the impacts of
  given policies relative to a range of baseline
  scenarios rather than to a single baseline
  scenario.

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A critical review of Climate
Change IA studies
The
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)Cost-effective
ness (2) Working Group III
Mitigation http//www.ipcc.ch/

• Economic costs can be different when they are
  viewed from different perspectives. Costs of
  mitigation incurred by a regulated sector are,
  for example, generally different from
  economy-wide costs
• In a world in which economies are linked by
  international trade and capital flows, abatement
  by one economy induces spillover effects on other
  economies. It matters to understand such effects
  in terms of welfare impacts and also of emission
  leakage.
• The underlying objective behind any cost
  assessment is to measure the change in human
  welfare generated as the result of a reallocation
  or change in use of resources...
• Constructing a "utility function" representing
  social welfare involves a number of complexities
  and controversial issues. For example, the
  classical cost approach may be considered as
  inequitable, as it gives greater weight to the
  "well off" typically, a well-off person has a
  greater "willingness to pay" than a less well-off
  person and hence the choices made reflect more
  the preferences of the better off.

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A critical review of Climate
Change IA studies
The
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)Robust
Decision-making Working Group III
Mitigation http//www.ipcc.ch/

• "Conventional frameworks for decision making on
  climate change policies presume that relevant
  aspects of the contextual environment are to some
  extent predictable. This approach has
  successfully managed a wide range of decision
  problems in which the relative uncertainties are
  reducible, and the stakes are modest...
• A number of uncertainty analysis techniques, such
  as Monte Carlo sampling, Bayesian methods, and
  fuzzy set theory, have been designed to perform
  sensitivity and uncertainty analysis...
• However, these techniques, suitable for
  addressing technical uncertainties, ignore those
  uncertainties that arise from an incomplete
  analysis of the phenomena, or from modelling
  uncertainties, as well as epistemological
  uncertainties.
• Multiscenario simulation approaches, like
  multiple-model routes, exploratory models, or
  parallel modelling, show that uncertainty is no
  longer a theoretical scientific concept, but a
  notion that might be usefully deployed by
  decision makers in arriving at their decisions.

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A critical review of Climate
Change IA studies
The
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)Equity
Considerations Working Group III
Mitigation http//www.ipcc.ch/

• In examining and evaluating mitigation options,
  it is important to consider more than the
  aggregate costs of such policies. It is
  important to consider the distribution of cost
  impacts of different potential policies across
  nations, socio-economic groups, industrial
  sectors, and generations...
• Fairness is integral to the establishment and
  maintenance of social relations at every level,
  from the micro to the macro, from the local to
  the global...
• Economists insist now on a fourth component of
  the resource base beside natural, reproducible,
  human capital, the social capital is made up of
  norms and institutions that influence the
  interactions among humans.

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A critical review of Climate
Change IA studies
The
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)Sustainability
Considerations Working Group III Mitigation
http//www.ipcc.ch/

• A striking conclusion from scenario analysis is
  that the nature of the baseline
• can be more important than the departures from
  that baseline caused by
• climate policy. This reveals the importance of
  developments that occur
• outside what is typically regarded as "climate
  policy"...
• The climate problem is viewed as a component of a
  larger problem, namely the unsustainable
  lifestyles and patterns of production and
  consumption. The transition to balanced and
  sustainable resource flows implies concomitant
  changes in technologies, institutions,
  lifestyles, and worldviews.
• Global futures scenarios consider four levels in
  the amount of mitigation that could result from a
  technology the market, economic, socioeconomic
  and technological potential. They analyse
  barriers, i. e. obstacles to reaching a
  potential, and opportunities to decrease gaps.
• Some of current lifestyles are environmentally
  more benign than others. But the issue is not
  only that individuals need to change their
  behaviour, but that they need to change
  themselves.

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The necessary evolution of IAM activitiesfor
regional emission control
New targets of climate change policies imply
important and structural changes in the energy /
economy system. Objectives of sustainable
development suggest new criteria for the
political choices. Such evolutions should have
consequences for IA and IA modelling also in the
field of regional emission control IAM in this
latter field should be coherent with climate
change IAM. As an example, one may think that
the principle of the NEC assessment modelling
work is no more relevant the essential basis of
the method was a business as usual projection
of activities with a subsequent consideration of
emission reduction measures that were technically
/ economically convenient. With such a point of
departure, it seems that

• models could probably not take into account 2020
  targets of CO2 emissions reductions that are now
  envisaged in the political sphere,
• there is an implied acknowledgement that the
  right to pollute is primarily determined by how
  each party view his future economic growth such
  an approach is clearly questioned in the present
  climate change debate.

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The necessary evolution of IAM activitiesfor
regional emission control (2)
More generally, a number of recommendations of
IPCC TAR Working Group III and of other European
IA studies should be carefully examined by the
TFIAM

• to try to go beyond the limits of classical
  cost-effectiveness studies by more complete
  analysis
• to search for robust decision-making rather than
  strategies that are optimal in a very
  improbable set of conditions,
• to take into account equity considerations,
• to enrich the analysis by the new approaches of
  the sustainability science and to integrate
  technological as well as social innovation.