Space Science and the Engines of Change

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Space Science and the Engines of Change

• Keith Mason
• CEO
• UK Science Technology Facilities Council

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Astronomy as a change engine

• Human kind is instinctively curious about the
  world and their place in it
• Astronomy, the oldest science, is accessible to
  all
• Discoveries change peoples perceptions of their
  place in the Universe and their relationship to
  each other
• Generally a non-threatening science
• Astronomy as entertainment!
• Astronomy Inspires!
• People who are inspired can achieve things
  otherwise beyond them!
• Drives technological capability
• Wider benefit to society
• Drivers not dissimilar to exploration!

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Way forward

• Best way to look forward is to extrapolate from
  the past
• So how far have we come in the last 50 years?
• What are the plans for the immediate future?
• Where might that lead?

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Astronomy in 1957

• Confined to visible wavelengths and radio
• Largest telescope 200in (5m) at Mt Palomar
• Photographic plates rule!
• Radio astronomy in its infancy 250 ft
  fully-steerable Lovell telescope just completed
• Debate between big bang and steady state
  cosmology
• Origin of lunar craters volcanic or impact?
• Speculation about life on Mars, oceans on Venus

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Take care with experts

• Space Travel is bunk
• Sir Harold Spencer Jones, British Astronomer
  Royal, 1957,
• 2 weeks before launch of Sputnik 1

Lesson History has a way of overturning even the
most cherished paradigms!
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1957-2007 some highlights

• Travel to the Moon and initial exploration of
  major planets, comets, asteroids
• Understanding the Sun and its effect on the
  Earths environment
• Detection of extra-solar planets
• Discovery of super compact stars
• importance of gravitational accretion as a source
  of energy
• Discovery of quasars
• prodigious energy understood as due to accretion
  onto supermassive black hole at the centre of
  galaxies
• Seeing the birth of black holes
• Mapping evolutionary history of stars galaxies
• Cosmic microwave background ? Big Bang
  cosmology
• Measuring the geometry of the Universe
• Discovery of Dark Energy

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1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
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Astronomy 2007

• Discoveries in past 50 years fuelled by
• access to space,
• development of electronics and detector systems,
• computers.
• Subject transformed compared to 1957
• No let up in the pace of discovery
• Even if rate of discovery lessens, still likely
  that subject will take many twists and turns
  before 2057!
• So what is to come?

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Future plans

• Consider ESAs space science programme
• Organised in decadal plans
• Horizon 2000, Horizon 2000, Cosmic Visions
  2015-2025
• Illustrative - Other nations have similar plans,
  and many missions likely to be realised by
  international collaboration to make them
  affordable
• So what are the prospects for the next few years?

ESA Science
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The Herschel Mission

• THE MISSION
• ESAs Herschel Space Observatory has the largest
  mirror ever built for a space telescope. At
  3.5-metres in diameter the mirror will collect
  long-wavelength radiation from some of the
  coldest and most distant objects in the Universe.
  In addition, Herschel will be the only space
  observatory to cover a spectral range from the
  far infrared to sub-millimetre. Located at L2
  (lagrangian point).
• OBJECTIVES
• Study the formation of galaxies in the early
  universe and their subsequent evolution
• Investigate the creation of stars and their
  interaction with the interstellar medium
• Observe the chemical composition of the
  atmospheres and surfaces of comets, planets and
  satellites
• Examine the molecular chemistry of the universe

2008
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James Webb Space Telescope(NASA, ESA, Canadian
Space Agency)

• Infrared optimised successor to Hubble Space
  Telescope
• Mirror diameter 6.5m. Will be located at L2
  (operating temperature lt 50K)
• Themes
• The End of the Dark Ages First light and
  re-ionisation
• Assembly of Galaxies
• Birth of stars protoplanetary systems
• Planetary Systems the origin of life

2013
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The Planck Mission

• THE MISSION
• Planck will help provide answers to one of the
  most important set of questions asked in modern
  science - how did the Universe begin, how did it
  evolve to the state we observe today, and how
  will it continue to evolve in the future?
  Planck's objective is to analyse, with the
  highest accuracy ever achieved, the remnants of
  the radiation that filled the Universe
  immediately after the Big Bang, which we observe
  today as the Cosmic Microwave Background.
• OBJECTIVES
• Mapping of Cosmic Microwave Background
  anisotropies with improved sensitivity and
  angular resolution
• Determination of Hubble constant
• Testing inflationary models of the early universe
  
• Measuring amplitude of structures in Cosmic
  Microwave Background

2008
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GAIA Galactic Archaeology

• Apparent shift of star position wrt background
  viewed from opposite sides of Earths orbit
• Parallax
• Measure of distance
• GAIA precision 20?arcsec
• Measure distances at Galactic centre to 20
• 1 billion stars!
• Also measure velocity in 3D
• Brightness, luminosity and chemical composition
• Create a 3-D structural map of the Galaxy!

Earth Orbit about Sun
2011
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GAIA Objectives

• Trace formation history of Milky Way through
  galaxy mergers
• Find planets around stars out to 50 pc
  (10,000-50,000 planets)
• Search for brown dwarf stars
• Detect 10,000 asteroids (including NEOs), comets
  etc in Solar System
• Detect 105 supernovae in distant galaxies
• Discover 5 x 105 quasars
• Test General Relativity

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Gravitational Wave Astronomy

• General relativity predicts that gravitational
  waves propagate at the speed of light
• Ripples from distant binary stars should be
  detectable as minute distortions in the
  separations of two appropriately spaced test
  masses
• New field of astronomy!

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The LISA Mission

• THE MISSION
• LISA is an ESA-NASA mission involving three
  spacecraft flying approximately 5 million
  kilometres apart in an equilateral triangle
  formation. Together, they act as a Michelson
  interferometer to measure the distortion of space
  caused by passing gravitational waves. Lasers in
  each spacecraft will be used to measure minute
  changes in the separation distances of
  free-floating masses within each spacecraft.
• OBJECTIVES
• To be the first spacecraft to detect
  gravitational waves
• Measure the properties of binary star systems in
  the Galaxy and beyond
• Test General Relativity under extreme conditions
• Search for gravitational signature of the Big
  Bang

2017
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LISA Concept

• LISA will consist of three spacecraft arranged in
  a triangle with sides 5m km
• Separation will be measured by interferometry of
  laser beams shining between the three spacecraft
• Change in separation due to gravitational waves
  tiny typically 10-10 m from a Galactic binary
• Reference point (test mass) must be shielded from
  external buffeting by, for example, the solar wind

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The LISA Pathfinder Mission

• THE MISSION
• LISA Pathfinder will pave the way for the LISA
  mission by testing in flight the very concept of
  the gravitational wave detection it will put two
  test masses in a near-perfect gravitational
  free-fall and control and measure their motion
  with unprecedented accuracy. This is achieved
  through state-of-the-art technology comprising
  the inertial sensors, the laser metrology system,
  the drag-free control system and an ultra-precise
  micro-propulsion system.
• OBJECTIVES
• LISA Pathfinder is to demonstrate the key
  technologies to be used in the future LISA
  mission.

2009
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Solar Storms

• Images from the X-ray Telescope on the
  Japan/UK/US Hinode satellite (launch Nov 2006)
  show turbulent solar atmosphere
• Coronal mass ejections can result in dangerous
  radiation levels for humans and instrumentation
• Particularly if outside the protection of the
  Earths magnetic field (e.g. Moon)

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Solar Orbiter Sentinels

• Need to understand and predict these outbursts,
  and how they propagate out from the Sun
• Require data from much closer to the Sun
• Combination of ESA Solar Orbiter and NASA
  Sentinels to probe to 0.2 AU (i.e. inside the
  orbit of Mercury)
• Very hostile environment!

2015
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The BepiColombo Mission

• THE MISSION
• BepiColombo will set off in 2013 on a journey
  lasting approximately 6 years. When it arrives at
  Mercury in August 2019, it will endure
  temperatures as high as 350 C and gather data
  during its 1 year nominal mission from September
  2019 until September 2020, with a possible 1-year
  extension to September 2021.
• OBJECTIVES
• - Origin and evolution of a planet close to the
  parent star
• Mercury as a planet form, interior, structure,
  geology, composition and craters
• Mercury's vestigial atmosphere (exosphere)
  composition and dynamics
• Mercury's magnetized envelope (magnetosphere)
  structure and dynamics
• Origin of Mercury's magnetic field
• Test of Einstein's theory of general relativity

2013
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The EXOMARS Mission

• First mission in Aurora programme
• Launch in 2013
• To explore Mars in three dimensions to understand
  habitability, life potential and hazards to
  future exploration
• High mobility
• Drill for sub-surface sampling to 2m depth
• Suite of Exobiology instruments

2013
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Distant Travellers
Rosetta Mars Encounter
Rosetta

• Rosetta (ESA)
• Launch 2004
• Encounter with Comet 67 P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko
  2014
• New Horizons (NASA)
• Launch 2006
• Encounter with Pluto/Charon 2015

Io/Europa New Horizons
New Horizons
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So what about the future?

• 50 years is a long time in the current rapidly
  developing field of space science/astronomy
• Progress and direction will certainly be hijacked
  by unknown unknowns!
• As it should be since thats what makes it
  exciting!!
• However many existing/planned missions and
  facilities have a longevity measured in decades
• So interesting to look at peoples current
  aspirations as a guide to what might be done in
  the next decades

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Aspirations for the Future(some ideas for ESA
Cosmic Visions)

• Early Universe Evolution
• 2nd generation gravitational wave observatory
  focussed on residual radiation from the big bang
  Universe at lt1s
• High precision measurements of cosmic microwave
  background polarisation to test big bang models,
  inflation
• Large area, high spectral resolution X-ray
  observatory for studying earliest black holes and
  role in galaxy formation
• Dark Energy
• High sensitivity surveys for distant supernovae,
  gravitational lensing distinguish Dark Energy
  models

• Planetary and Stellar Evolution
• Infrared Interferometer high-resolution
  spectroscopy at 0.01arcsec spatial resolution,
  capable of resolving nearby protoplanetary disks.
• Survey of 100,000 stars for Earth-like and
  smaller planets, plus stellar evolution studies.
• Environments of Earth-like planets
• Molecular hydrogen explorer
• High-Energy Universe
• First large-area focussing ?-ray telescope
  Gamma-ray bursts, supernovae, AGN, accretion
  disks, Galactic centre

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Aspirations for the Future (cont)

• Fundamental Physics
• Accurate measurement of G and limits on change,
  equivalence principle, link General Relativity
  and Quantum Mechanics, search for evidence of
  superstrings
• Magnetic Reconnection Solar Activity
• Measure processes in Earths magnetosphere with
  fleet of 12 spacecraft at proton to electron
  interaction scales.
• Sample Solar wind environment very close to Sun

• Planetary Exploration
• Lunar exploration characterise interior and
  cosmochemistry, sample return.
• Mars networks and sample return
• Venus Entry Probe long-term balloon-bourne
  investigation plus surface samples
• Europa Exploration characterise ice thickness
  and surface/interior characteristics leading to
  search for life in liquid subsurface oceans
• Asteroid sample return 50-100g from
  surface/subsurface regolith of primitive body.

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Example Extra-Solar Planets

• Over 200 planets known around other stars
• Most discovered by dynamical studies
• Wobble in parent caused by unseen companion
• Favours massive planets close to star (hot
  Jupiters)
• Can also be detected when they transit in front
  of parent star
• Need high sensitivity to detect tiny reduction in
  stellar light
• French-led CoRoT mission launched in 2006
• NASA Kepler 2008
• Capable of detecting earth-like rocky planets in
  habitable zone

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Search for Life-bearing planets

• Ultimate aim is to determine whether Earth-like
  planets harbour conditions for life
• Aim of Darwin/Terrestrial Planet Finder missions
• Array of spacecraft working together as one
• Use Nulling interferometer or coronograph to
  block out light from parent star
• Determine composition of planets atmosphere

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Possible Headlines from 2007-2057

• Scientists find birthplace of the first stars
• Water found in Young Planetary System
• Antimatter explorer prepares for launch
• Astronomers find missing matter!
• Astronomers find every galaxy in the Universe
• Astronomers seek the first black holes
• Scientists see the beginning of time
• Einstein was wrong!
• The road to unification finally revealed!
• Spacecraft flies into the eye of a Solar
  hurricane
• We are not alone!
• When life began!
• Doomed worlds
• Scientists find biological activity on another
  Earth!
• Earths evil twin shows us a glimpse of our
  future
• Life, but not as we know it!

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What do we need for a healthy future?
Smarter
Smaller, Faster, Cheaper used to be the
watchwords
With change, still makes sense, so long as we
also use Faster in the sense of higher velocity
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Need to maintain momentum

• Tendency for greater challenges to drive more
  complex missions
• Greater cost, more extended timescales, less risk
• Harder to inspire when time between and idea and
  fruition measured in decades!
• Mitigation reduce cost of access to space
• Encourage turnover, accept higher risk, encourage
  innovative solutions
• Positive developments
• Investment in infrastructure, for exploration
• Commercial launch companies driven by private
  investors
• Innovation Low-cost platforms (e.g. SSTL)

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Faster travel

• Current travel time to outer planets, and even
  Mercury, limits progress
• Voyager 1 currently at 100 AU after 30 years
• 0.5 lt days
• Need more efficient propulsion to effectively
  explore outer planets, Kuiper belt and even
  interstellar space
• E.g. ion drive as used recently on SMART-1

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More data

• Increasingly accustomed to a high data-rate
  environment in science
• We have smart, capable instruments that can
  tackle complex problems
• But, ability to get data back from instruments in
  remote locations an increasing limitation
• E.g. Solar Orbiter, where telemetry rate does not
  permit continuous use of high speed measurements
• Need high bandwidth communications infrastructure
  for entire solar system
• E.g. laser comms

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Astronomy Access/Protection
Large infrastructure

• Favoured sites
• L2 deep space, cryogenic
• L1 solar
• Lunar far side future large infrastructure
• Need to protect environment from the outset
• Particularly crucial in radio regime
• Mobile phone in the Moon would be one of the
  brightest astronomical sources seen from Earth!
• More robust available transportation
  infrastructure
• Maintenance repair at L1, L2 from Lunar space ?
• Need efficient transport

Solar
Deep Space
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End