The Impact of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa Mark R. LaJoie, Maj, USAF Masters of Science in Meteorology Thesis Naval Postgraduate School Advisor: Prof Tom Murphree Second Reader: Lt Col Pfeiffer 09 March 2006

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The Impact of Climate Variations on Military
Operations in the Horn of AfricaMark R.
LaJoie, Maj, USAFMasters of Science in
Meteorology ThesisNaval Postgraduate
SchoolAdvisor Prof Tom MurphreeSecond Reader
Lt Col Pfeiffer 09 March 2006
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
2
Overview

• Motivation and background
• Data and methods
• Results
• Scientific El Nino, La Nina and Horn of Africa
  (HOA)
• Military Smart operational climatology process
• Proof of concept Military scenario
• Recommendations and conclusions
• For Future Work
• To DoD leadership

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
3
Motivation and Background
DoD climatology is behind the state of the art
(scientifically and operationally) and
inadequate for planning and operations

• Science Aspects
• DoD climo is traditional in approach, based
  exclusively on long term means (LTM). Climate
  variations are neglected.
• Information often not (a) up to date and/or (b)
  available at sufficient resolution
• Highly relevant advanced climo information,
  methods, and products not readily available to
  METOC personnel or their customers
• Operational Aspects
• Difficult to accurately tailor raw climo
  data/information into operational impacts
• Burden falls to operational units and small
  staffs, who lack resources
• Most operational products based upon LTMs
  supplied by DoD centers shortfalls/flaws
  perpetuated
• No comprehensive references or institutionalized/f
  ormal training

Paraphrased from Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu,
Oct 05
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
4
Data and Methods

• Smart climatology
• Framework developed during 2004 2005 NPS
  climatology courses
• Evolved through discussions between mid-level
  USAF USN METOCs
• Refined into a formal process for creating smart
  military climo products

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
5
Data and Methods Science Component

• Composite analysis of LTM, El Nino, La Nina
• MEI to identify 5 strongest, post-1969 EN LN
  autumns (Oct-Nov)
• NCEP reanalysis fields primary dataset utilized
  (Kalnay et al.)

• Five strongest EN
• 1982
• 1997
• 1972
• 1987
• 1994

• Five strongest LN
• 1975
• 1973
• 1988
• 1971
• 1974

MEI values background obtained from
http//www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/in
dex.html
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
6
Data and Methods Proof of Concept

• Military scenario as a proof of concept
• Notional, unclassified Non-Combatant Evacuation
  Operation (NEO)
• Autumn (October-November) HOA scenario

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
7
Data and Methods Science Component
Rationale for Research Parameters

• Why climate variations in the HOA?
• Interesting nexus of science and operational
  importance
• Prior studies fail to clearly identify mechanisms
  for precipitation variability in the HOA (e.g.
  Black et al., 2004, Nicholson et al)
• Most DoD studies fail to account for climate
  literature
• Why ENLN?
• Additional variations considered (e.g., MJO, NAO,
  IOZM etc.), but ENLN held most potential for
  thesis results
• Why autumn (Oct-Nov)?
• Season with most influence from ENLN (e.g.,
  Nicholson et al, etc.)
• Why limit to post-1969?
• Emphasizes satellite era data
• Long enough duration to represent interannual and
  decadal events
• Long enough duration to capture recent climate
  trends
• Reanalysis data flawed for HOA prior to 1969
  (Pocard et al. 2000)

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
8
Scientific Findings El Nino
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Basin-wide SST anomalies. Anomalous SST
  gradient across the IO with anomalous warming
  (cooling) in the west (east). Warmest positive
  anomalies off HOA coast.

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
9
Scientific Findings El Nino
Surface Air Temperature
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Anomalous surface air temperature pattern
  closely resembles SST pattern, suggesting that
  SSTs may be driving the air temperature
  anomalies.
• Note max anomalies near HOA coastal region where
  temperature are climatologically coolest.

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
10
Scientific Findings El Nino
850 hPa Heights Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Arabian High intensified during EN
• Twin cyclones straddling equator appear filled
• Weak anomalous troughing indicated over much of
  HOA and Western IO. Implication is that
  processes normally causing troughing are enhanced
  during EN events.

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
11
Scientific Findings El Nino
850 hPa Vector Winds Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Circulation around Arabian High intensified,
  strengthened Reverse Somali Jet (RSJ), consistent
  with height anomalies
• Circulations around eastern IO cyclones and
  equatorial westerlies weakened
• Weakened SE flow into HOA
• Anomalies suggest increased on-shore component
  of RSJ from Arabian Sea into HOA

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
12
Scientific Findings El Nino
200 hPa Heights Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Maritime continent (MC) twin anticyclones
  weaker, but extend further west into IO and HOA
  during EN. Weakening consistent with weakened
  convection over MC during EN events, westward
  extension suggests warming over the IO.
• Note Rossby-Kelvin signature in anomaly field.
  Likely a consequence of deep anomalous warming
  over the western IO regions driven by positive
  SST anomalies.

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
13
Scientific Findings El Nino
200 hPa Vectors Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Strengthening and southward shift of STJ over
  Arabian Peninsula
• Strengthened (weakened) climatological
  easterlies over western (eastern) IO
• Note twin, anomalous anticyclonic circulations
  straddling equator over eastern Africa. They
  correspond with the Rossby-Kelvin anticyclones
  observed in height 200 hPa height field.

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
14
Scientific Findings El Nino
850 hPa Specific Humidity Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Specific humidity increase over HOA and the IO
  is consistent with positive SST and air
  temperature anomalies, and subsequent increased
  capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapor.
• Coupled with anomalous onshore wind component at
  850 hPa, suggests enhanced moisture advection
  into the HOA and western IO

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
15
Scientific Findings El Nino
500 hPa Omega Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Vertical velocity indicates subsidence, but
  appears weakened in EN composite. Assessment of
  decrease subsidence implies increased convective
  activity through the season, potentially
  instigated by the anomalous SSTs, air
  temperatures, moisture and circulations through
  the atmosphere

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
16
Scientific Findings El Nino
Precipitation Rate Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Series of anomalous climate variables suggest
  mechanisms for increased precipitation during
  strong EN events, as illustrated here.

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
17
Scientific Findings El Nino
Soil Moisture Composites
(1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)

• Increased soil moisture a result of increased
  precipitation in the HOA during strong EN events.
  

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
18
Scientific Findings El Nino Schematic
Composite of Five Strongest EN Events
1969-present (1982, 1997, 1972, 1987, 1994)
200 hPa
Stronger STJ

• Anomalous Rossby-Kelvin anticyclones
• Stronger (weaker) easterlies over western
  (eastern) IO
• Stronger STJ

Weaker easterlies
Stronger easterlies
850 hPa
Stronger, more onshore RSJ

• Positive anomalies in SST, specific humidity and
  air temperature
• Stronger Arabian High and RSJ, anomalous onshore
  winds
• Weakened twin cyclones and westerlies over
  eastern IO
• Enhanced HOA precipitation

Increased HOA IO Precipitation
L
Weaker westerlies
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
19
Scientific Findings La Nina Schematic
Composite of Five Strongest LN Events
1969-present (1975, 1973, 1988, 1971, 1974)
200 hPa
Weaker STJ

• Stronger easterlies out of Maritime Continent
  MC), consistent with increased SSTs and
  convection associated with La Nina
• Weaker STJ

H
Stronger easterlies
H
850 hPa
H
Weaker RSJ

• Negative IO SST, air temp. and specific humidity
  anomalies. Weakened RSJ and onshore component
  into HOA.
• Stronger westerlies over western IO, consistent
  with La Nina event
• Decreased HOA precipitation

Stronger westerlies
Decreased HOA IO Precipitation
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process

• Determine Timelines
• Required Formats

Step 1
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Results Smart Climatology Process
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
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Proof of Concept HOA NEO (Notional)
Camp Lemonier
http//maps.google.com/
http//www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html
Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are
conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS)
in evacuating noncombatants, nonessential
military personnel, selected host-nation
citizens, and third country nationals whose lives
are in danger from locations in a host foreign
nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the
United States. NEOs usually involve swift
insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an
objective, and a planned withdrawal upon
completion of the mission. JP3-07.5, Joint
Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for
Noncombatant Evacuation Operations

• Scenario/Assumptions Intel estimates indicate
  that the potential exists for a military coup in
  Ethiopia, which would necessitate the rapid
  evacuation of 150 embassy personnel, plus an
  equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates
  (students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC
  (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological
  assessment for a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov
  timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The
  O3 recently read an NPS thesis discussing climate
  variations and military impacts in the HOA, and
  decides to use it as a guide for the assessment.
• Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven Camp
  Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship.
• Forces MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator
  UAVs plus tankers ground operations support

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
28
Proof of Concept Tendency Charts
Typical OctoberNovember is the short rains
season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by
extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated,
afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in
the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to
collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in
October and early November, improving to mostly
favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy
season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out
of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable
overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon
crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures
exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino A
strong El Nino event would tend to increase
showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in
October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse
than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is
moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment
of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of
Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical
years. La Nina A strong La Nina event would
tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and
thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR
impacts will tend to general improvement over
typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as
for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and
shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B
launch and recovery operations out of Camp
Lemonier remains the same as in typical years.
Legend
LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu

• Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds
  4. Temperature

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Recommendations

• For Future Work
• Expand to additional HOA seasons and climate
  variations
• Apply template to other operational regions and
  weapons systems

• To DoD leadership
• Explore selectively updating current LTM products
  with information on climate variations
• Consider training personnel at AFCCC and other
  DoD organizations on latest climate science
  techniques
• Consider partnerships with civilian organizations
  who do modern climate work

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu
30
Overview

• Motivation and background
• Data and methods
• Results
• Scientific El Nino, La Nina and Horn of Africa
  (HOA)
• Military Smart operational climatology process
• Proof of concept Military scenario
• Recommendations and conclusions
• For Future Work
• To DoD leadership

LaJoie Thesis, Mar06. Contact murphree_at_nps.edu