New Nuclear Weapon System

1
New Nuclear Weapon System
Submarine
Missile
Warhead
2
New Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN)
3 or 4 new nuclear-armed submarinesfirst in
service in 2024
3
Submarine Programme
08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59

Nuclear-Armed Submarines
Vanguard
New SSBN
4
Submarine Programme
08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59

Nuclear-Armed Submarines
Vanguard
New SSBN
Conventionally-Armed Submarines
Trafalgar
Astute
MUFC
5
New SSBN Timeline
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ConceptDesign
Initial Design
Detail Design
Outputs
InitialGate
Build
Main Gate
6
New SSBN Timeline

• 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
  23 24

ConceptDesign
InitialDesign
Detailed Design
Production Outputs
Build Commission
Sea Trials
InitialGate
Main Gate
In Service
7
Reactor options for new SSBN
PWR 2 New Generation Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP)
Reactor on Vanguard Astute New Design
Passive cooling system
Safer ?
New Prototype ?
More expensive ?
8
Continuous Patrols
One armed submarine on patrol at all times
Alert measured in days non-verifiable
our planned future programme should takeus up
to 750 patrols Rear Admiral Matthews
Patrols
1968-2007 300
2008-2060 ? 450
Total 750
9
New Nuclear Weapon System
Submarine
Missile
Warhead
10
Missile System
Initially - TridentLater - Trident or new US
missile
11
Missile options
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

British successor submarine in-service 2024
2060
Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042
ULMS SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029
12
Underwater Launched Missile System(ULMS)
New US missile to replace Trident D5 In service
by 2029 Initial concept studies started in
2007 Considered by Strategic Advisory Group
November 2007
13
Operational independence ?
without United States cooperation Polaris
would become ineffective after only a few
monthsSir Charles Ellworthy March 1971
14
New Nuclear Weapon System
Submarine
Missile
Warhead
15
Nuclear Warhead
16
Options for nuclear warhead
UK Trident warhead
New warhead
or
17
Plutonium pit
Life Extension
No replacementLifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead
New PitFire Resistant
18
High Explosives
Life Extension
Replace EDC 37 High Explosive after 16 ? years
New Warhead
Insensitive High ExplosivesSafer, Larger
Heavier
19
Modernisation of Aldermaston
20
Implications for Scotland

• 2024 2055
• nuclear warheads in transport and storage
• nuclear-armed nuclear-powered submarines
• potential nuclear attack on targets in
  Scotland

21
Warhead accident - Plutonium dispersal
Total Effective Dose Equivalent
30 mSvConsiderEvacuation
Plutonium 4 Kg Explosives 20 lbWind SW 5
m/sComputer Programme Hotspots 2.06
3 mSvConsiderShelter
22
Comparison of Hotspots LAESI
HOTSPOTS MODEL
Downwind Distance Dose Countermeasure
400 m 300 mSv Evacuate
2.5 km 30 mSv Consider Evacuation
16 km 3 mSv Consider Shelter
LAESI GUIDELINES
Distance Arc Countermeasure
600m 360 Evacuate
5 km 45 Shelter
23
Ground deposition of Plutonium
100 kBq/m2
10 kBq/m2
Plutonium 4 Kg Explosives 20 lbWind SW 5
m/sComputer Programme Hotspots 2.06
24
Submarine Hazards
Reactor Fuel for 30 year operation 98 enriched
HEUdecay products greatest in later years.
25
Submarine Hazards
HMS Tireless in Gibraltar 2000/01
26
Submarine Hazards
Missiles The rocket fuel in 12 Trident missiles
is equivalent to 820 tonnes of TNT
27
Submarine Hazards
Nuclear Warheads Nuclear warheads are fixed
around the third stage of each missiles
28
Submarine Hazards
Torpedoes Torpedoes are designed to sink a modern
submarine
August 2000Torpedo accident on Kursk
29
Submarine Hazards
Fire Fire on a submarine can lead to a nuclear
accident
October 2004Fire on Upholder (HMCS Chicoutimi)
30
Submarine Hazards
USS Scorpion bow
USS Scorpion stern
Sinking 2 US and 6 Russian nuclear submarines
have sunk following accidents
31
Submarine Hazards

• Explosion of 820 tonnes rocket fuel
• Detonation of nuclear warhead
• Dispersal of 200 kg plutonium from warheads
• Dispersal of radioactive material from reactor

32
Where could an accident happen ?
33
Faslane
Base for Trident and proposed base for Successor
SSBN
34
Faslane Shiplift
Lifts submarine with missiles nuclear
weapons Construction problems Vulnerable to
aircrash May be replaced by dry dock
35
Coulport
Warheads attached removed in Explosives
Handling Jetty
36
Submarines in transit
Risk to towns in Clyde estuary
37
Hazard zones for submarines in transit
2 km zonearound where submarines regularly
sail Equivalent topreplanned countermeasures zon
e for berths.
38
Hazard zones for submarines in transit
10 km zonearound where submarines regularly
sail Equivalent toextendibility zone for
berths.
39
Loch Goil Z berth
Noise Range
40
Rothesay Z berth
Mooring Buoy in Rothesay Bay
41
Highland Z Berths
42
Highland Z Berths Trials
Lochewe Z Berth
Rona Noise Range
Broadford Z Berth
43
Submarine exercise areas
44
Dounreay
PWR2 Reactor Prototype
45
Possible new Prototype ?
New nuclear reactor at Dounreay ? In service
2018 2044 ? Transport of new fuel, used fuel
and waste across Scotland
46
New Tritium Production Facility ?
2006
2054
Decay of current tritium stockpile

• Previous source Chapelcross
• Location of new facility unknown

47
Scope of safety schemes
Road transport of nuclear weapons LAESI guidelines
Road rail transport of Defence Nuclear Materials LAESI guidelines
Submarine reactor accident at a berth Clyde and Highland Safety Schemes
Reactor accident at HMS Vulcan Dounreay Vulcan safety scheme
Reactor or Warhead accident at sea No specific scheme
48
Safety schemes scenarios
SafetySchemeScenario WorstCase
NuclearWarheadTransport PlutoniumDispersal NuclearYield
Submarine Loss of Coolant ContainmentFailure
Nuclear-ArmedSubmarine Loss of Coolant Nuclear Yield ContainmentFailure
49
Containment Failure Accident
50
NII Licencing
Function Site NII Licensed
Warhead Manufacture Atomic Weapons Establishment Yes
Submarine Refit Maintenance DevonportDockyard Yes
Fuel Rod Fabrication Derby Yes
Submarine Maintenance Faslane No
Warhead Handling Coulport No
Prototype Reactor HMS Vulcan, Dounreay No
51
Relative risks
GreatestEffect
Nuclear War
Effect
Submarine Or WarheadAccident
LeastEffect
MostLikely
LeastLikely
Probability
52
Effect of nuclear war - Targeting
Nuclear targeting priorities 1. Nuclear weapons
Command/Control2. Military facilities3.
Military industrial facilities4. Other
industrial civilian facilities
With fewer weapons the emphasis is on top
priority targets.
53
Primary Nuclear Targets in Scotland
Berth 12 ShipliftFaslane
Explosives Handling Jetty Coulport
Berths 10 11Faslane
Reentry Body Magazine Coulport
54
Effect of nuclear attack on Faslane
10 Sv 100 fatalities
4.5 Sv 50 fatalities
Weapons 6 x 550 Kt warheadsGround Zero
Faslane/CoulportWind 5 m/s WNWExposure 1
week Shelter factor 0.5 Computer Programme
Hotspots 2.06
300 mSv Evacuate
55
Nuclear Waste issues
Nuclear Warheads Final disposalWaste generated atAldermaston Coulport
Used Fuel Used Fuel from 3-4 new submarines
In-service waste from submarine Handled at Faslane
Prototype for new reactor ? Used Fuel in-service waste decommissioning
Submarines after decommissioning No solution or location identified
56
Disposal of submarine hulks
Defuelled 11
AwaitingDefuelling 3
In service 13
CurrentSubtotal 27

Astute 7 ?
New SSBN 4 ?
MUFC 7 ?
Potential Total 2070 45
Rosyth Dockyard
57
Nuclear Weapons Budget 2007 - 2011
million
Other
2100
2000
AWE Operating
1700
1500
TridentReplacement AWE Development
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
58
Trident Replacement Procurement Costs
Warhead 2-3 bn
Infrastructure 2-3 bn
Submarine 11-15 bn
Total 15-20 bn
59
Nuclear Weapons Costs 2008-2058
Average Annual cost 1.5 bn
Total cost over 50 years 75 bn