Predictors of 8th Grade CST-Algebra I Performance

1
Predictors of 8th Grade CST-Algebra I
Performance

• Shannon Wells, Ph.D.
• Lorie Sousa, Ph.D.

2
Background

• Proposal at the state level was under review that
  would require all 8th grade students in
  California to enroll in Algebra I and take the
  CST-Algebra I
• December 19, the CSBA-requested injunction on the
  algebra mandate was granted
• Study was conducted to evaluate the potential
  ramifications of adopting an Algebra for all 8th
  Grade Students policy
• Special thanks to Shirley Roath (Math
  Coordinator, RCOE) for requesting this study

3
Research Questions

• QUESTION 1
• Is 6th grade CST a better predictor of 8th grade
  Alg. I than 7th grade CST?
• QUESTION 2
• Do district demographics impact the predictive
  ability?
• QUESTION 3
• What is the optimal score in 7th grade to predict
  Alg I performance?
• QUESTION 4
• Does 7th grade CST predict scores in high Algebra
  I districts?
• QUESTION 5
• What is the difference in performance on General
  Math and Algebra I in high Algebra I districts?
• QUESTION 6
• Are there differences in proficiency levels
  between high Algebra I and comparison districts?

4
Demographics

• 92 schools
• About 32,000 students per grade level
• Demographically similar to California
• 52.1 low income (NSLP)

5
Methodology and Analysis

• STAR data files over three years
• 6th grade sample
• 6th grade CST-Math (from 2006) and their 8th
  grade CST-General Math or Algebra I score (from
  2008).
• 7th grade sample
• 7th grade CST-Math scores (from 2007) and each
  students matched 8th grade CST-General Math or
  Algebra I score (from 2008)
• Linear regression analyses
• Assess the ability of the 6th and 7th grade
  CST-Math scaled scores to predict 8th grade
  CST-Algebra I scores

6
Question 1 Is 6th grade CST a better predictor
of 8th grade Alg I than 7th grade CST?

• Both tests are good predictors of CST-Algebra I
  scores,
• Grade 7 CST-Math is a better predictor of 8th
  grade CST-Algebra I performance than grade 6
  CST-Math
• Grade 7, R .75
• Grade 6, R .683

7
Question 2 Do district demographics impact the
predictive ability?

• Three groups were created
• low poverty/low minority
• moderate poverty/moderate minority
• high poverty/high minority
• Grade 7 CST-Math was an effective predictor of
  CST-Algebra I performance for all three groups
• Slightly better for high poverty/high minority

8
Question 3 What is the optimal score in 7th
grade to predict Alg I performance?

• The optimal 7th grade CST-Math scaled score to
  predict success (proficiency) on the CST-Algebra
  I for 8th grade students was found based on two
  ranges
• 380 on the 7th grade CST-Math that would be
  necessary to equal a scaled score of 350 on the
  8th grade CST-Algebra I
• Range 338 to 422
• 440 on the 7th grade CST-Math to ensure success
• Range 398.1 to 481.9

9
Question 4 Does 7th grade CST predict scores in
high Algebra I districts?

• Three districts chose to enroll 66 or more of
  their 8th grade students in Algebra I and to take
  the Algebra I CST
• 7th grade CST-Math had a strong predictive
  relationship with the 8th grade CST-Algebra I
  regardless of district demographics

10
Question 5 What is the difference in performance
on General Math and Algebra I in high Algebra I
districts?
11
Question 6 Are there differences in proficiency
levels between high Algebra I and comparison
districts?
12
Conclusions

• 7th grade CST-Math was a better predictor than
  6th grade CST-Math
• Need to look at earlier grades
• Predicted regardless of the poverty and minority
• Slightly better predictive power for high
  poverty/high minority districts
• Use of the 7th grade CST-Math would be beneficial
  regardless of district demographics

13
Conclusions, cont.

• 380 on the 7th grade CST-Math was predictive of a
  proficient or better score on the 8th grade
  Algebra I CST
• Optimal scale score 440
• Students scoring less than 380 in 7th grade are
  unlikely to score proficient on Algebra I in 8th
  grade without additional support

14
Conclusions, cont.

• High 8th grade CST-Algebra I districts
• 7th grade CST-Math very good predictor of success
• Similar rates of proficiency on the General Math
  and Algebra I CST regardless of the
  poverty/minority distribution
• If Algebra I for all 8th graders policy is
  enacted at some point, 7th grade CST-Math should
  remain a strong predictor of CST-Algebra I
  performance
• Use scores to target students for early
  intervention
• Ensure students scoring lower than 380 receive
  additional assistance
• Requiring all students to take Algebra I, many of
  whom are not prepared, will result in decreased
  proficiency levels

15
Questions?

• Dr. Lorie Sousa (lorie_at_keydatasys.com)
• Dr. Shannon Wells (shannon_at_keydatasys.com)