A Global Framework For Addressing Aviation CO2 Emissions

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A Global Framework For Addressing Aviation CO2
Emissions
Paul Steele Director Aviation Environment IATA
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Aviation is a key driver of socio-economic
development

• 2.2 Billion passengers
• 32 Million jobs
• 8 of global GDP (US 3.5 trillion)
• 2 of global man-made CO2 emissions
• Major driver of tourism and trade

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Aviation faces emissions challenge
1600
Pre-recession
ICAO forecast
1400
CO2 emissions from the global fuel burn of
commercial airlines
Post-recession
1200
IATA forecast
1000
800
Million tonnes CO2
600
628 Mt (2010F)
400
200
0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Source IATA
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..but our track record is strong
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Industry Commitment on Climate Change 2008
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• Our four-pillar strategy
• Invest in new technology
• Fly more efficiently
• Build and use efficient infrastructure
• Use effective economic measures

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Global industry targets
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CO2 Abatement cost curve in 2020
C
Source IATA Carbon Model
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Emissions reduction roadmap
No action
CO2 emissions
Frozen technology emissions Gross emissions
trajectory
-50 by 2050
(schematic)
2050
2005
2020
2030
2040
2010
10
Emissions reduction roadmap
Frozen technology emissions Known technology,
operations and infrastructure measures Carbon-neut
ral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory
No action
CO2 emissions
Tech Ops Infra
-50 by 2050
(schematic)
2050
2005
2020
2030
2040
2010
11
Emissions reduction roadmap
Frozen technology emissions Known technology,
operations and infrastructure measures Biofuels
and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth
2020 Gross emissions trajectory Economic measures
No action
CO2 emissions
Tech Ops Infra
Biofuels add. Tech
CNG 2020
-50 by 2050
(schematic)
2050
2005
2020
2030
2040
2010
12
2010 to 2020
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Source IATA Carbon Model
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Analysis Key conclusions
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Govt. support needed

• Key emissions reduction drivers to 2020
• Fleet renewal
• Infrastructure
• Operations
• Biofuels
• Industry can deliver on fleet/ load factor and
  operations
• Governments need to support infrastructure and
  biofuels

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1
11
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Industry driven measures
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Emissions reduction potential to 2020
Source IATA Carbon Model
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How can governments help?

• Invest in ATM improvements e.g. NextGen and
  SESAR
• Invest in RD funding for new technology
• Promote scaling up and of sustainable biofuel
  production

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Our biggest opportunity is sustainable biofuels

• Second third generation biofuels - e.g.
  camelina, algae
• With the potential to reduce our carbon footprint
  by up to 80
• Full certification by Q1 2011
• Next step scaling up and commercialisation

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Biofuels could completely replace Jet A-1
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Promotion of aviation biofuels Governments have
their part to play too

• RD funding
• Pilot projects
• Fiscal investment incentives
• Transport energy policy

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Emissions reduction roadmap
Frozen technology emissions Known technology,
operations and infrastructure measures Biofuels
and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth
2020 Gross emissions trajectory Economic measures
No action
CO2 emissions
Tech Ops Infra
Biofuels add. Tech
CNG 2020
-50 by 2050
(schematic)
2050
2005
2020
2030
2040
2010
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Market-based measures

• Industry recognises that MBMs will be needed to
  close the gap
• But we need positive not punitive measures
• Fiscal/financial/policy measures to
• Accelerate RD
• Incentivize technical/operational improvements
• Promote alternative fuels
• Emissions trading can play a role but must be
  global
• Industry offset mechanisms should also be
  recognized

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How can governments help?

• By agreeing
• A coordinated policy approach
• A global framework under ICAO
• By avoiding
• A fragmented policy approach
• Unilateral use of national/regional measures

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Uncoordinated patchwork

• Green taxes

Emissions trading
?
?
?
?
4 mn
1-13 bn
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Concerns with Environment Taxes

• Green taxes do nothing for the environment
• Money goes into central treasury funds
• Netherlands tax repealed after 18 shift in
  traffic across borders
• Distance banding causes market distortions
• UK APD distortions because based on capital
  cities
• Cheaper to fly to Hawaii than Bermuda
• Taxes hurt developing country trade and tourism
• Usually distant from tourism source and trade
  target markets

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The ICAO 37th Assembly was a unique opportunity
for governments to agree on a global framework
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ICAO 37th Assembly Resolution

• Positives
• First ever global sectoral agreement to reduce
  carbon emissions
• Reflects aspirational industry goal of
  carbon-neutral growth from 2020
• Lists 15 principles for MBMs, in line with
  industry priorities, e.g.
• Transparency and simplicity
• No duplication
• Minimize leakage and distortion
• Appropriate access to all carbon markets

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Aviations economic impact

• If aviation were a country, it would rank 21st in
  terms of GDP same size as Switzerland
• 35 of goods transported worldwide by value
  are sent by air, but only 5 by volume
• 40 of international tourists travel by air
• Air travel supports 1.3 of total employment in
  Africa, contributing 10 billion to GDP and is 4
  times as productive as the economy as a whole
• In Latin America, 1.8 million jobs are supported
  by aviation, contributing 22 billion to the GDP

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The food miles debate

• High-value, perishable foods
• Supporting emerging economies
• Air-freighted fresh produce to the UK alone
  supports 1.5 million jobs in Africa
• Food miles argument doesnt stand up Oxfam
  report
• You must look at the full lifecycle and most
  produce grown in Europe requires large amounts of
  energy
• Lincoln University study showed 1kg of New
  Zealand lamb shipped to the UK had a smaller
  carbon footprint than 1kg of British lamb

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Useful Reports
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IATA carbon offset program

• 17 Airlines 6 of global traffic
• TAP Air Portugal won UNESCO Planet Earth Award
  in 2010.
• Large credible offset provider sources high
  quality carbon credits.
• Carbon credits are compliance grade CERs (under
  CDM/Kyoto Protocol)
• Offering passengers a portfolio of offset
  projects
• large geographical coverage
• social and economic benefits for local
  communities.
• IATA Carbon Calculator
• ICAO methodology
• enhanced with real airline data.
• Government approved offset program (DECC-UK QA)
• Phase II of the program has started corporate
  travel/online agents.

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Carbon labelling

• Flybe first airline to label planes
• Noise
• Fuel Consumption
• CO2 emissions
• New CO2 standard
• Being developed by ICAO and industry
• Standard for new aircraft types
• Ready in 2013

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A global framework for addressing aviation CO2
emissions
Q A?