Title: Tourism Industry at Risk: The Economic Impact of Climate Change
1Tourism Industry at Risk The Economic Impact of
Climate Change
Mr. Damani Thomas
2Tourism Industry at Risk The Economic Impact of
Climate Change
- Climate Change Conference Impacts on the
Caribbean - June 15-17, University of the West Indies, Mona
- Damani Thomas
- M.Sc. Economics Student, UWI, Mona
3Outline of Presentation
- The economic value of Jamaicas tourism industry
- The climates contribution to tourism
- Expected impacts of climate change
- Climate change impacts on demand for tourism
- Projected costs of climate change to the tourism
industry - Mitigation and Adaptation
- Recommendations
4The economic value of Jamaicas tourism industry
- Tourism has been the largest foreign exchange
earning sector over the past decade, generating
over US1 billion per annum - Tourism industry accounts for approximately 7 of
GDP - Tourism industry accounts for approximately 10
of the employed labour force - Tourism industry provides an important impetus
for growth in other sectors - Each 1 spent in the tourism industry generates
another 1 of output in the other sectors
Source McCatty and Serju, 2006
5Multiplier Effect per 1 spent in the Tourism
Industry on Other Sectors
SourceMcCatty and Serju, 2006
6Climates contribution to tourism
- Climate is an important component of the islands
tourism resource base - Jamaicas tourism product is based primarily on
its tropical climate and coastal resources - Tourism industry is therefore highly susceptible
to the direct and indirect impacts of climate
change
7Expected impacts of climate change
- - Sea level rise
- Saline intrusion into freshwater
- aquifers
- Coastal flooding and erosion
- - Increased temperatures
- Heat stress
- Coral bleaching
- Biodiversity loss
- Increased emergence of vector borne
- diseases
8 Expected impacts of climate change (contd)
- Changes in rainfall patterns
- Droughts or floods
- Decreased fresh water availability
- Increased intensity of storm activity
- Direct damage of infrastructure
- Loss of lives
9How climate change impacts will affect tourism
- Direct damage to tourism plant and natural
resources - Hotels
- Coral reefs
- Beaches
- Loss of attractiveness of the region as a
- destination
- Impacts on health emergence of dengue, malaria,
etc. - Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged
- Loss of employment in the industry
- Increased insurance costs for properties in
- vulnerable areas
10Climate change impacts on tourism demand
- Promotion of tourism based on sun, sea and
- sand
- Climate change will lead to a deterioration of
these - resources
- Visitors will be less attracted to island as a
tourist - destination
- Climate change therefore puts a downward
pressure on - the island's tourism demand
11Climate change impacts on tourism demand
- Jamaicas major tourist market is north America
- North America accounted for approximately 80 of
tourist - arrivals over the past 5 years
- Rising temperatures as a result of ongoing
climate change - will lead to milder winters in north America
- This in turn, will remove the need for some
visitors to visit - the island
12Projected costs of climate change to the tourism
industry
Without the necessary mitigation and adaptation
strategies, expected losses for the Jamaican
tourism industry are-
- Low Probability scenario up to 2050
- reduced tourism US44.2
- loss of beaches US23
- replacement US1.5
- lost dive-,eco-tourism US2.2
- Total expected losses US70.9
Figures 1999 US millions
Source King, 2003
13Projected costs of climate change to the tourism
industry
- High Probability scenario up to 2050
- reduced tourism US134.4
- loss of beaches US199.7
- replacement US12.9
- lost dive-,eco-tourism US6.7
- Total expected losses US353.7
Figures 1999 US millions
Source King, 2003
14Mitigation and Adaptation
Firstly, we must recognise that tourism is a
major contributor to GHG emissions. Mitigation
srategies must therefore include reducing the
industrys emissions.
- Sea level Rise
- seawalls
- preservation of natural sea defences (e.g. coral
reefs) - prohibition of sand mining
- Water
- de-salinization
- water harvesting
- drip irrigation
- Tourism Demand
- diversification of tourism offerings (e.g. green
and heritage - tourism
15- Physical Infrastructure
- energy efficient building designs
- facilities that incorporate future climate
- change
- increased insurance costs should be
- factored into future profitability
- Government Policy
- fiscal incentives for compliance
- land use planning
- coastal defence
- Adaptation and Mitigation will require
significant capital outlay and political will,
however the long run benefits far outweigh the
short run costs.
16 Recommendations
- A urgent need exists for sustainable tourism
development - that incorporates climate change mitigation
strategies - Regional petition of the governments of
developed - countries to reduce GHG emissions
- Promotion of green tourism
- Energy savings by industry
- Private and public partnership to formulate and
implement - tourism plan that takes climate change into
- consideration
- Future promotions should be based primarily on
increasing - tourists spending and their average length of
stay
17Thank you