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Tourism Industry at Risk: The Economic Impact of Climate Change

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Title: Tourism Industry at Risk: The Economic Impact of Climate Change


1
Tourism Industry at Risk The Economic Impact of
Climate Change
Mr. Damani Thomas
2
Tourism Industry at Risk The Economic Impact of
Climate Change
  • Climate Change Conference Impacts on the
    Caribbean
  • June 15-17, University of the West Indies, Mona
  • Damani Thomas
  • M.Sc. Economics Student, UWI, Mona

3
Outline of Presentation
  • The economic value of Jamaicas tourism industry
  • The climates contribution to tourism
  • Expected impacts of climate change
  • Climate change impacts on demand for tourism
  • Projected costs of climate change to the tourism
    industry
  • Mitigation and Adaptation
  • Recommendations

4
The economic value of Jamaicas tourism industry
  • Tourism has been the largest foreign exchange
    earning sector over the past decade, generating
    over US1 billion per annum
  • Tourism industry accounts for approximately 7 of
    GDP
  • Tourism industry accounts for approximately 10
    of the employed labour force
  • Tourism industry provides an important impetus
    for growth in other sectors
  • Each 1 spent in the tourism industry generates
    another 1 of output in the other sectors

Source McCatty and Serju, 2006
5
Multiplier Effect per 1 spent in the Tourism
Industry on Other Sectors
SourceMcCatty and Serju, 2006
6
Climates contribution to tourism
  • Climate is an important component of the islands
    tourism resource base
  • Jamaicas tourism product is based primarily on
    its tropical climate and coastal resources
  • Tourism industry is therefore highly susceptible
    to the direct and indirect impacts of climate
    change

7
Expected impacts of climate change
  • - Sea level rise
  • Saline intrusion into freshwater
  • aquifers
  • Coastal flooding and erosion
  • - Increased temperatures
  • Heat stress
  • Coral bleaching
  • Biodiversity loss
  • Increased emergence of vector borne
  • diseases

8
Expected impacts of climate change (contd)
  • Changes in rainfall patterns
  • Droughts or floods
  • Decreased fresh water availability
  • Increased intensity of storm activity
  • Direct damage of infrastructure
  • Loss of lives

9
How climate change impacts will affect tourism
  • Direct damage to tourism plant and natural
    resources
  • Hotels
  • Coral reefs
  • Beaches
  • Loss of attractiveness of the region as a
  • destination
  • Impacts on health emergence of dengue, malaria,
    etc.
  • Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged
  • Loss of employment in the industry
  • Increased insurance costs for properties in
  • vulnerable areas

10
Climate change impacts on tourism demand
  • Promotion of tourism based on sun, sea and
  • sand
  • Climate change will lead to a deterioration of
    these
  • resources
  • Visitors will be less attracted to island as a
    tourist
  • destination
  • Climate change therefore puts a downward
    pressure on
  • the island's tourism demand

11
Climate change impacts on tourism demand
  • Jamaicas major tourist market is north America
  • North America accounted for approximately 80 of
    tourist
  • arrivals over the past 5 years
  • Rising temperatures as a result of ongoing
    climate change
  • will lead to milder winters in north America
  • This in turn, will remove the need for some
    visitors to visit
  • the island

12
Projected costs of climate change to the tourism
industry
Without the necessary mitigation and adaptation
strategies, expected losses for the Jamaican
tourism industry are-
  • Low Probability scenario up to 2050
  • reduced tourism US44.2
  • loss of beaches US23
  • replacement US1.5
  • lost dive-,eco-tourism US2.2
  • Total expected losses US70.9

Figures 1999 US millions
Source King, 2003
13
Projected costs of climate change to the tourism
industry
  • High Probability scenario up to 2050
  • reduced tourism US134.4
  • loss of beaches US199.7
  • replacement US12.9
  • lost dive-,eco-tourism US6.7
  • Total expected losses US353.7

Figures 1999 US millions
Source King, 2003
14
Mitigation and Adaptation
Firstly, we must recognise that tourism is a
major contributor to GHG emissions. Mitigation
srategies must therefore include reducing the
industrys emissions.
  • Sea level Rise
  • seawalls
  • preservation of natural sea defences (e.g. coral
    reefs)
  • prohibition of sand mining
  • Water
  • de-salinization
  • water harvesting
  • drip irrigation
  • Tourism Demand
  • diversification of tourism offerings (e.g. green
    and heritage
  • tourism

15
  • Physical Infrastructure
  • energy efficient building designs
  • facilities that incorporate future climate
  • change
  • increased insurance costs should be
  • factored into future profitability
  • Government Policy
  • fiscal incentives for compliance
  • land use planning
  • coastal defence
  • Adaptation and Mitigation will require
    significant capital outlay and political will,
    however the long run benefits far outweigh the
    short run costs.

16
Recommendations
  • A urgent need exists for sustainable tourism
    development
  • that incorporates climate change mitigation
    strategies
  • Regional petition of the governments of
    developed
  • countries to reduce GHG emissions
  • Promotion of green tourism
  • Energy savings by industry
  • Private and public partnership to formulate and
    implement
  • tourism plan that takes climate change into
  • consideration
  • Future promotions should be based primarily on
    increasing
  • tourists spending and their average length of
    stay

17
Thank you
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