2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

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2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

• May 2005
• Ethan E. Haase
• COMSTAC Technology Innovation Working Group

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Introduction

• COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast
• Updated annually since 1993
• Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing
  enhancements to final product
• 10-year forecast horizon (2005-2014)
• Average annual demand is similar to 2004 forecast
• 20.5 satellites per year vs. 21.1 satellites in
  2004 forecast
• 2005 Report presents updates on
• Estimate of realization of forecast demand
• Growth in satellite mass and transponders per
  satellite
• Respondents views on factors affecting demand
• Industry developments that may affect demand

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2005 Mission Model Panel

• Ethan Haase (panel chair) Lockheed Martin /
  International Launch Services
• Alexander Liang (TIWG chair) Aerospace
  Corporation
• I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation
• Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services
• Doug Howe Boeing Space and Communications
• David Keslow Orbital Sciences Corporation
• Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation
• Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV
• Dave Pollock Rocketdyne
• Kathy Shockey Space Systems / Loral
• John Sloan FAA AST

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Forecast Methodology

• Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites
  launched from satellite operators, manufacturers,
  and launch service providers worldwide
• Individual demand requirements from operators
• Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers
  and launch providers
• Projections by mass class
• Develop Near-Term (2005-2007) Mission Model
• Bottom-up forecast of launch opportunities by
  name
• Consensus forecast based on most recent
  information
• Individual inputs from operators used as
  available
• Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed
  upon by panel
• Develop Long-Term (2008-2014) Forecast
• Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by
  mass categories
• Only addressable commercial GSO satellites
  included
• Addressable satellites are defined as those open
  for internationally competitive launch service
  procurement

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2005 Survey

• Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for
  2005-2014
• 26 survey responses received
• 6 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive
  inputs
• 3 international manufacturers / launch service
  providers submitted comprehensive inputs
• Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand
• 15 companies also responded to questions on how
  various factors affected their plans to procure
  new satellites
• Responses compared to 2004 indicate shifts in
  views on the state of the market

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2005 Survey Respondents

• Alcatel (France)
• Arianespace (France)
• Asia Satellite Telecommunications, Ltd. (China
  Hong Kong)
• The Boeing Company (U.S.)
• Broadcasting Satellite System Corp. (Japan)
• Intelsat (U.S.)
• JSAT Corporation (Japan)
• Kistler (U.S.)
• Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co. (U.S.)
• Loral Skynet (U.S.)
• MEASAT (Malaysia)
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)
• Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)

• Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)
• New Skies Satellites (Netherlands)
• Orbital Sciences Corp. (U.S.)
• Satmex (Mexico)
• Sea Launch (U.S.)
• SES Americom (U.S.)
• SES Astra (Luxembourg)
• Sirius Satellite Radio (U.S.)
• Space Communications Corporation (Japan)
• Space Systems/Loral (U.S.)
• Spacecom (Israel)
• Telesat Canada
• Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)

Provided input on factors affecting demand
Provided comprehensive input
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2005 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch
Demand Forecast
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Realization of Demand

• The COMSTAC GSO Forecast projects demand for
  launches of satellites
• Several factors can affect the execution of a
  scheduled launch in a given year, including
• Launch failures
• Launch vehicle delays
• Manifesting delays
• One or more of these factors have delayed
  missions each year that the COMSTAC forecast of
  identified demand has been presented

• Manufacturing delays
• Satellite component issues
• Regulatory delays

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Forecasted Demand vs. Realization

• 2004 GSO Report forecasted demand of 20
  satellites to be launched in 2004
• 13 commercial GSO satellites were launched in
  2004
• 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues
• 2 satellites were delayed due to launch vehicle
  issues
• 1 satellite projected for 2005 launched early
• To give guidance on the number of satellites
  expected to be launched, the GSO forecast report
  includes a historically-based realization
  factor
• Estimate of actual satellites launched introduced
  in 2002 report
• Expected realization for 2004 was estimated at
  between 12 and 17 satellites launched
• Methodology has evolved to present realization
  factor for the first two years of the forecast

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2005 GSO Demand Forecast and Realization

• Expected realization is based on historical
  analysis of difference between demand forecast
  and actual satellites launched
• 2005 expected realization 13-19 satellites
  (historical 1st year variance of 13 to 42)
• 2006 expected realization 10-20 satellites
  (historical 2nd year variance of 10 to 55)

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Historical Demand Forecast Comparison

• 2005 10-year average about the same as last
  years forecast
• 2005 forecast higher in near-term, lower in
  out-years

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Spacecraft Trends Transponders

• The average commercial GSO satellite carried
  almost 42 more transponders in 2002 that it did
  in 1997
• Total transponders launched is projected to
  increase from 2004 to 2005, due mainly to the
  shift of several large satellites to 2005
• The average satellite will carry fewer
  transponders in 2005 than in 2004, yet still more
  than the 2000-2003 average

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Spacecraft Trends Mass

• Average satellite mass continues to increase the
  typical commercial GSO satellite now has a launch
  mass of over 4,000kg
• Total mass launched projected to jump in 2005 due
  to the launch of several very large satellites

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Spacecraft Trends Forecast by Mass

• 2005 forecast indicates growth in average
  satellite mass will continue
• Satellites in the 4,200kg to 5,400kg range
  increase from 7.0 per year in last years
  forecast to 8.1 per year
• Satellites in the below 2,200kg category fell
  from 4.1 per year to 2.7 per year

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International Input Comparison

• 3 international companies provided comprehensive
  forecast inputs (Arianespace, Alcatel, Mitsubishi
  Heavy Industries)
• The average 10-year demand forecast projection
  from the international inputs was nearly the same
  as the 2005 GSO demand forecast
• One significant difference between the GSO demand
  forecast and the international inputs
• International inputs projected more satellites in
  the 2,200kg to 4,200kg range than the 4,200kg to
  5,400kg range

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Factors Affecting Demand

• Economic and market conditions worldwide continue
  to be challenging
• Capacity oversupply continues in some markets
• Financing for new ventures heavily scrutinized
• But with signs of improvement

Results comparison 2004 2005 COMSTAC
supplemental questionnaire
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Factors Affecting Demand

• Rollout of new services
• Ka-band systems providing HDTV and broadband
  services are rolling out in 2005 (e.g. DIRECTV
  Wildblue)
• Their success will determine future growth
  prospects in this segment
• Private Equity buy-ins
• Over the last few years, Private Equity firms
  have purchased stakes in many of the worlds
  major satellite operators
• e.g. Inmarsat, Intelsat, PanAmSat, Eutelsat
• The effect of the business plans of these new
  owners has yet to be fully seen, but their
  strategies will have a substantial impact on
  future satellite demand

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COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Feedback

• The 2004 and 2005 surveys included a feedback
  form for contributors to inform Working Group
  what is useful in the report
• 2004 Feedback
• Most companies use the report for market/business
  planning
• Many respondents asked for easier report
  availability
• Action FAA AST and the Working Group will
  electronically distribute the report to
  respondents
• 2005 Feedback
• Different companies found various parts of the
  report to be most useful
• Majority of respondents find the addition of the
  realization factor and the transponder mass
  history charts useful

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Summary of Findings

• 2005 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast
• Average satellite demand 2005-2014 20.5 per
  year
• Near-term demand is 22 in 2005, 22 in 2006, and
  19 in 2007
• Expected realization is 13 to 19 satellites
  launched in 2005
• Average transponders per satellite and average
  satellite mass continue to increase
• Compared to last years forecast, the 2005
  forecast includes fewer satellites below 2,200kg
  and more satellites between 4,200kg and 5,400kg
• Economic and market conditions continue to be
  challenging, with some improvement being seen
• The success of new broadband services and the
  strategies of new owners should have significant
  impact on demand in the coming years