Global Warming and Science

1
Global Warming and Science

• So far the balanced story of basic science is not
  getting through to the public
• There is at least one alternate hypothesis
• and a new theory
• Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto

2
(No Transcript)
3
What is Global Warming?

• Throughout time the Earths climate has varied
• Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya)
  there have been at least 30 glacial -
  interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000
  years duration with interglacial periods warmer
  than now between them
• Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000
  years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average).
• ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year one might
  say its slowing down.
• All the worlds coastal tribes have flood myths
  because they lived on the continental shelves.
• Between glacial ages the climate varies due to
  external and internal influences some result in
  cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
• There are short-term cycles e.g. El Niño,
  among others for example - the 10 to 12 year
  long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate
  to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean
  masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle.

4
Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the ice
age
5
Pennekamp Park Key LargoReefs keep pace with
sea level rise
6
Solar System
7
What If?

• If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat,
  we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night
  and end up like a sun-dried tomato
• Mercury - 427 to 172 ºC
• Mars - temperate zone soil
• 27 to 80 ºC
• Moon - 107 to 153 ºC

8
What is the Greenhouse Effect?

• Certain gasses in the atmosphere absorb heat
  energy and reduce the amount that escapes into
  space
• This trapping of heat from our only source of
  warmth the Sun by the atmosphere is known as
  the Greenhouse Effect
• This gives us a global average temperature of
  15C rather than -18C if we had no Greenhouse
  Effect

9
Important Facts

• Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
  - 60 - 98 of the greenhouse effect is due to
  water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)
• CO2 and other minor gasses account for the
  remainder

10
Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including
water vapour) http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/gr
eenhouse_data.html
11
Is Global Warming Happening?

• Lets examine some very wiggly curves
• Death Valley California - temperature trend

12
Berkeley California
13
Blaine Washington
14
New York NY
15
Albany NY
16
Harrisburg Pa Civil War gap
17
State University Mississippi
18
Chicago Illinois
19
Houlton Maine - Did someone shoot the weatherman?
20
Buffalo NY
21
Niagara Falls NY - 1911
22
Key West Florida
23
Global Warming

• Typically the majority of weather stations yield
  corrupt time series data
• Those weather stations are located where people
  are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample
  of the surface of the world, rather a measure of
  increasing human density
• Death Valley, Key West, Blaine, and Houlton are
  far (remote) from urban centres and are likely
  more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany
  vs. New York City?
• Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from
  satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements
  give a much smaller warming.

24
Realistically

• The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner
  the alarmists claim
• There are many other sites that demonstrate
  cooling
• I accept the warming but not the drama
• I do not accept the popular cause CO2
• Why are the graphs so wiggly?
• Because climate is not weather

25
Kamél, 2003

• In the past couple of years, new and better
  analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a
  better time resolution, have shown that first
  temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels
  increase. It is the temperature increase which
  causes the increase in CO2 and not the other way
  around.
• The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra
  warming to what is going on, but not even that is
  certain.

26
CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing
phenomenon

• Throughout the greatest temperature transitions
  experienced by the planet over the past 420,000
  years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been
  proven to have been a follower, and not a leader,
  of climate change, rising from one to five
  thousand years after major increases in air
  temperature, and falling in similar manner
  throughout the course of the past four
  glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001).

27
Observations

• Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due to
  warming of the oceans
• CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your
  Guinness to see this effect)
• CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas
  effect more CO2 less effectiveness

28
CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid

• Solubility of solids increases directly with
  temperature of the solvent
• sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than
  cold
• Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water
  and evolves rapidly out of warm water
• Dont shake your Guinness!

29
And

• You might say, and alarmists say every day,
  that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the
  industrial revolution is tipping the climate over
  into uncontrollable heating

30
CO2 Feedback effect

• Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél,
  2003)
• Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
• Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds
  to the same window becomes decreasingly effective
  in blocking incoming light
• More CO2 less additional greenhouse effect
• Increase in CO2 has less effect because
• Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has
  exactly one important spectral line in the
  infrared part of the spectrum. This line is
  clearly saturated.
• If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in
  the atmosphere, not much will happen

31
Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs.
increasing CO2 content - Willis Eschenbach
32
Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O
33
Look up! - recognise the variation is in the
fourth significant digit
34
Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003
35
Sunspot peak frequency vs. temperature
anomalyBlack Temperature anomalyRed Sun
spot peak frequency
36
Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science
Magazine

• 95 correlation between sunspot peak frequency
  and the temperature anomaly
• Sunspot curve, moreover, does lead the
  temperature curve
• But, correlation is not causation
• What is the cause?

37
Danish National Space Centre

• An essential role for remote stars in everyday
  weather on Earth has been revealed by an
  experiment at the Danish National Space Center in
  Copenhagen. It is already well-established that
  when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic
  particles originating in exploded stars far away
  in the Milky Way, penetrate the Earths
  atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of
  ions and release free electrons.
• Now, results from the Danish experiment show that
  the released electrons play a significant role in
  promoting the formation of building blocks for
  cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor
  condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal
  mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the
  production of clouds in Earths atmosphere has
  been experimentally identified for the first
  time.
• http//www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-relea
  ses/getting-closer-to-the-cosmic-connection-to-cli
  mate

38
Danish Space Centre Theory

• Active sun ? enhanced magnetic and thermal flux
  solar wind ? geomagnetic shield response ? less
  low-level clouds ? less albedo (less heat
  reflected)  ? warmer climate
• Less active sun ? reduced magnetic and thermal
  flux reduced solar wind ? geomagnetic shield
  drops ? galactic cosmic ray flux ? more low-level
  clouds ? More snow ? more albedo (more heat
  reflected) ? colder climate
• That's how the bulk of climate change works
• Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are
  cycles of global warming and cooling like waves
  in the ocean

39
Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation
when stars supernova
40
CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science,
1991) www.friendsofscience.org
41
CO2 and Temperature Anomaly

• Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890 to 1950
• CO2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly
  from 1940 to 1970
• Temperature rise does correlate with solar
  activity
• CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming

42
Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas

• The most variable component of the atmosphere is
  water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud
  droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the
  strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and
  because the transition between the various phases
  absorb and release so much energy, water vapour
  is central to the climate and its variability and
  change.
• Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis
  Section 1.1.2 The Climate System

43
We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since
sunspots were first recorded
44
Cycle 23

• The cycle was short - 10 years (out of 11)
• Bimodal peak is interesting (cycle 22 was bimodal
  too)
• We are experiencing the sunspot minimum this fall
  and winter
• Anecdotally, this is consistent with both a
  warmer than usual climate and also the result of
  the Danish cloud chamber experiment
• High precipitation in humid regions of the planet
  like the Great Lakes Region and NA west coast
• Desertification in regions of low humidity
• El Nino

45
Why? Realistically?

• Is CO2 the target?
• CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
• Media propagation? Bottom Line
• Repetition of stale science
• Bandwagon science? - DDT and Malaria!
• Consensus science? - Copernicus and Galileo!
• Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
• Research grants? Tied to outcome
• All of the above?

46
Original Sin

• Gracious no! Humans can only claim
  responsibility, if that's the word, for about
  3.4 of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere
  annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC,
  Woods Hole)
• Anthropogenic 0.11 of the global CO2 cycle
• www.CO2Science.org

47
My hypothesis is very weak

• Eruption of Krakatau, 1883

48
Skepticism or Objectivity
49
Moving to higher ground above An Inconvenient
Truth

• "A scientific hypothesis that survives
  experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"

50
Key References

• Friss-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991 Length
  of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar
  activity closely associated with climate,
  Science, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1,
  1991, pp.698-700.
• Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel
  D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I.
  Uggerhoj, 2006 Experimental evidence for the
  role of ions in particle nucleation under
  atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal
  Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi10.1098/rspa.2006
  1773. Published online.

51
References

• Temperature
• Lars Kamél, 2003 Temperature measurements Is
  climate research pseudo science?
• Swedish original text from June, English
  translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made
  since.
• http//www.astro.uu.se/l/noworry.htm
• United States Historical Climatology Network
  dataset
• http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc
  n/ushcn.html

52
References

• CO2 as plant food
• Eamus, D. 1996 Responses of field grown trees to
  CO2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75
  39-47.
• Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003 Vegetation index
  trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999.
  Geophysical Research Letters 30
  10.1029/2002GL016772.
• Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998
  Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2
  atmosphere. New Phytologist 139 395-436.

53
References
CO2 Saturation Elachi, Charles, 1987
Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of
Remote Sensing (John Wiley Sons) Kamél,
Lars, 2003 Why we don't have to worry about CO2,
Department of Astronomy and Space Physics,
Uppsala, Sweden http//www.astro.uu.se/l/noworr
y.htm CO2 Trailing effect Mudelsee, M., 2001
The phase relations among atmospheric CO2
content, temperature and global ice volume over
the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20
583-589.
54
Other Reading

• deFreitas, C.R., 2002 Are observed changes in
  the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
  atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of
  Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June
  2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and
  Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand.
• McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005
  Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious
  significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32,
  L03710, doi10.1029/2004GL021750
• Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H.
  Said, 2006 Ad hoc committee report on the
  Hockey stick global climate reconstruction, To
  The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and
  Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on
  Oversight and Investigations, US House of
  Representatives.
• The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001 Third
  Assessment Report consists of four sub-reports
  1) Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis, 2)
  Climate Change 2001 Impacts , Adaptation and
  Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change
  2001Mitigation, and 4) Climate Change 2001
  Synthesis Report.

55
Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo.
(Ontario) artesian1_at_sympatico.ca 323 Blantyre
Avenue Toronto Ontario M1N 2S6 Canada 416-698-6291
56
Acknowledgements

• Jim Tilsley
• Les Manns
• Richard Bedell