Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal

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Land use and water Resources

• Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu,
  Nepal

By Dr. Pervaiz Amir
June
29-30, 2006
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Coverage of this presentation

• Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver for Water
  related Stresses (extreme events)
• 2. Some Brief Findings of APN Funded Activities
  in two Selected SHU Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas

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Studies/Sources

• Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus
  on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Editors Y.P Abrol
  Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Publishers.
  New Delhi. 2000
• Socio-economic aspects of drought in
  Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Hydrological Units of
  Pakistan. Science and Culture. Vol 71 No7-8
  July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News
  Association. New Delhi.
• Climate Change and Water resources in
  South Asia- Proceedings of Year end Workshop
  Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (APN)
• Current Issues in Water Sector
• (Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistans
  Water Economy Running Dry
• In India Indias Water Economy Bracing
  for Turbulent Future

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OBJECTIVES-APN Project

• Analyze recent climate variability and extreme
  events, and impacts on regional water resources
• Assess impacts of projected CC variability and
  associated extreme events, and socio-economic
  changes, on water resources
• Determine vulnerability of regional water
  resources to CC identify key risks to each
  sub-region and prioritize adaptation responses
• Evaluate efficacy of various adaptation
  strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce
  vulnerability of regional water resources
• Provide inputs to relevant national and regional
  long-term development strategies

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Agro Ecological Zones Main features of the
agro-ecological zones of Pakistan
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LAND UTILIZATION STATISTICS
(Million HA)
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E Estimated R Repeated of last
year. Source- Provincial Agriculture
Departments. GEOGRAPHICAL AEA is that area
which has been surveyed and calculated by the
Survey of Pakistan. TOTAL AEA REPORTED is the
total physical area of the village/deh, tehsil or
district etc. FOREST AERA is the area
of any land classed or administered as forest
under any legal. Enactment dealing
with forests. Any cultivated area which may exist
within such forest should be exclude
(and shown under heading cultivated area).
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Land Use/Land Cover As Driver of ChangeLand
Use f Resource Endowments, Land Q, History,
Pop, climate (T and P)-changes, skills and
tradition, Type of Agriculture, Infrastructure,
Water Q and Availability Investments,profitabilit
y Development Goals, T

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Virtual Water Content

• Agriculture viewed as virtual water outputs that
  result in net transfer of water when the produce
  is sold
• Thus a water deficient country when it exports
  wheat, rice, meat, beef and cheese, is
  essentially using a large input of water that it
  transfers to water scarce nations
• In Pakistan wheat produced in Punjab and Sindh is
  being exported to neighboring provinces, NWFP and
  Balouchistan-
• A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure
  in India or China and these countries enter in
  as big buyers in the international arena!

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Virtual Water Content of a Few Selected Products
in M3/Ton
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Water Requirements Equivalent of Crop Production
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SELECTED SUB HYDROLOGICAL UNITS
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Survey Objectives

• To provide data on key aspects of Livelihood,
  Drought, Changes in magnitude, Rainfall pattern,
  Agriculture, Livestock, and certain coping
  mechanisms.
• To report on farmers perceptions about Drought in
  the areas of Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas.

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Source APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas
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Adjustments adopted to cope with the last
drought? (n113)
Source APN Survey, June 2003-Bahawalpur Note
Due to multiple responses, sample size exceeds 113
Effectiveness of water user organizations to
motivate the farmers to solve the problems
related to water use? (n113)
Source APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas
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Findings of APN Survey

• Land size small, dependence on desert and
  periphery on livestock. Carrying capacity
  becoming problem during drought
• Minimal govt or NGO support. Food main expense.
  Income low and uncertain
• Main reason for drought rainfall. High shadow
  price of water during drought
• Little application of advanced technology,
  sprinkler, centrifuge-Egypt, Israel
• Droughts damage crops, livestock, pastures,
  gardens and distort livelihood
• Major difference in crop and livestock yields .
  Statistically significant
• Decision making framework compels step-wise
  adoption. Need drought and salt tolerant
  varieties

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• Water scarcity, well digging now at 250 feet. We
  must conserve total water, price it and regulate
  its use No more a free good.
• Considerable political turmoil. Droughts fueling
  controversy.
• Linear application inappropriate
• Drought forces an Exit strategy where options
  exist. Food security not problem but purchasing
  power lacking
• Water user association, extension in-effective.
  Livestock extension rated good. Policy
  interventions needed.
• People Cope with livestock sale, equipment, gold
  and belongings. Long tem impacts on human lives,
  asset inventory, and sustainability of systems
• Droughts affect people physiologically, depress
  them and changes their perspective on life

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CC Findings

• 92 of the countrys area is arid to semi-arid
  thus the climate change will have negative impact
  on availability of water because of
• Extremes are going to be severe i.e. droughts
• Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid
  monsoonal regions
• Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid
  winter dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan

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Contribution by Glaciers
Shahid 2004
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Sum up land Use and Water

• Change in water availability is evident impacts
  of variability or climate change persistent
  drought is a phenomena of severity of extremes
• Increasing trend in Water Demand competing
  water users people, agriculture, nature
• Physical limitations with the surface water
  resources
• Groundwater Resource Limitations -Quantity and
  Quality exploiting the marginal quality zone

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Meeting the Water Stress Challenge in Agriculture

• Water conservation (raised bed furrow technology)
• Efficiency options (sprinkler, trickle, drip
  etc.)
• New Storages for Regulation
• Supply and Demand Management
• Addressing water Rights an entitlements
• Managing the Management Nexus

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Macro Implication of Water Saving with Adoption
of Resource Conservation Technologies
Source OFWM, 1999-2000 and Dhillon and Sidhu,
2004
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Water channels
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Water Ponds
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Technologies For Irrigated Areas
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Technologies For Barani Areas
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Technologies For Desert areas
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THANK YOU