Overcoming%20Impossible%20Projects

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Overcoming Impossible Projects
                                                                

• By
• Orlando Moreno, PMP

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How Many Projects Fail?
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Standish Group, 1998

• 26 Successful (on time/on budget)
• 46 Challenged (late, over budget, etc.)
• 28 Cancelled
• Behind the numbers
• Software Development Projects, averaging 2M
• Reported by CIOs, IT Managers, CTOs

75 of All Projects Fail
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Real Projects The Truth Is Out There

• Projects Fail for Three Reasons
• The Objective (Scope) Is Actually Impossible.
• The Project Is Overconstrained.
• The Project Is Poorly Planned and Executed.

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Project Risk Management

• Depends on Project Planning to
• Identify (and Avoid) Truly Impossible Projects.
• Develop Negotiation Data for Overconstrained
  Projects.
• Eliminate Poorly Planned and Executed Projects.

Two Sides of the Same Coin You Cannot Manage
What Might Go Wrong Until You Know What Going
Right Looks Like.
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PERIL Database

• Project Experience Risk Information Library
• Over 200 Project Records
• Primarily IT and Product Development Projects
• World-wide
• All Risk Impacts Normalized to Schedule Slippage

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PERIL Database Risk Types

• Risk Types
• Scope (Changes, Defects)
• Resources (People, Outsourcing, Money)
• Schedule (Delay, Dependency, Estimates)

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PERIL Relative Risk Severity
300
250
Weeks of Project Impact
200
150
100
50
0
Scope Defect
Scope Change
Schedule Delay
Resource Money
Resource People
Schedule Estimates
Resource Outsourcing
Schedule Dependency
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PERIL Scope Risks

• Changes (Scope Creep, Gaps, Dependencies)
• Defects (Hardware, Software, Integration)

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PERIL Scope Risk Severity
200
160
Weeks of Project Impact
120
80
40
0
Change Gap
Defect Software
Defect Hardware
Defect Integration
Change Dependency
Change Scope Creep
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Scope Risk Remedies

• Scope Planning
• Work Breakdown Structure
• Change Control
• Worst Case and System Analysis
• Evolutionary or Cyclic Development Methods

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PERIL Resource Risks

• People (Loss, Temporary Loss, Late Start,
  Queuing)
• Outsourcing (Delay, Turnover, Late Start)
• Money

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PERIL Resource Risk Severity
90
80
70
Weeks of Project Impact
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
People Loss
People Conflict
People Queuing
People Late start
Money Limitation
People Motivation
People Temp. loss
Outsourcing Delay
Outsourcing Late start
Outsourcing Turnover
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Resource Risk Remedies

• Resource Planning
• Project Staffingby Name
• Sponsorship
• Contracting Competence
• Co-Location

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PERIL Schedule Risks

• Delay (Hardware, Parts, Decisions, Information)
• Dependency (Projects, Support, Other)
• Estimates (Judgment, Learning Curve, Deadline)

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PERIL Schedule Risk Severity
80
70
Weeks of Project Impact
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Delay Parts
Delay Decision
Delay Hardware
Estimation Deadline
Estimation Judgment
Estimation Learning
Delay Information
Dependency Other
Dependency Project
Dependency Support
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Schedule Risk Remedies

• Dependency Analysis
• Interface Analysis
• Estimation Methods and Metrics
• Worst Case Analysis

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PERT Schedule Analysis
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
t
t
t
t
p
0
e
o
m
Duration
99
50
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But What About Parkinsons Law?
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Worst Case Schedule Analysis
0
Duration
Worst Case Estimating
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Project Risk Management

• Use Qualitative (and When Appropriate,
  Quantitative) Analysis to Assess Risk Severity.
• Avoid or Mitigate All Severe Preventable Risks.
• Transfer or Establish Contingency Plans for All
  Other Severe Risks.
• Reduce Project Size, Complexity.
• Establish Reserves for Schedule and/or Budget
  Based on Risk Analysis.
• Negotiate Project Objectives Consistent with
  Credible Plans.

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So

• If Planning and Analysis Show Your Project Is
  Impossible
• Change It, Avoid It, or Stop It, Early.
• If Planning Shows the Project Is Overconstrained
• Negotiate the Constraints.
• Set Appropriate Reserves.
• Manage Risks.
• If Planning is Poor, or Not Done
• You are part of the 75.

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Questions?
Orlando A. Moreno omoreno_at_hotmail.com 408.656.2498

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One of the things we always like to remind
ourselves before we do any job was to expect the
unexpected. Right? Right. Always sounds like
good advice. Except of course, if you are
expecting the unexpected, well, then it really
isnt unexpected anymore, is it? And that leaves
you vulnerable to the truly unexpected, because
you are not expecting it. Bruce Williss
character in Bandits (2001)