Title: Interconnection in an IP-Based NGN Environment
1Interconnection in anIP-Based NGN Environment
- J. Scott Marcus, Senior Consultant
- ITU Workshop What rules for IP-enabled NGNs?
- Geneva, March 23-24, 2006
2Interconnection in anIP-Based NGN Environment
- Introduction
- The economics of interconnection
- Fixed, mobile, Internet
- Retail and wholesale arrangements
- Quality of Service
- Market power and interconnection
- Interconnection and universal service
- Billing and accounting challenges
- A hypothetical scenario
- Summary
3Introduction
- IP-based NGNs represent the marriage of the
Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) with the
world of the Internet - Very different interconnection arrangements
prevail in these two worlds. - Different technology.
- Different regulatory history.
- Different industry structure.
- What should happen when worlds collide?
4Introduction
- Why do we regulate?
- Market failures Market power
- Market failures Desirable capabilities that
would not deploy without help (some of which
constitute public goods) - Manage limited resources (spectrum, numbers)
5Introduction
- What role for regulation in the world of the
IP-based NGN? - Where service providers possess Significant
Market Power (SMP), they will tend to have both
the ability and the incentive to exploit that
market power, to the detriment of consumers. In
the absence of regulation, interconnection often
serves as a locus for the exploitation of SMP. - Coase Theorem (1959) private parties can
often negotiate arrangements more efficiently
than government regulators, provided that
necessary preconditions have been met. - In markets where competition is fully effective
(no SMP exists), competitive forces will
generally make regulation unnecessary. - Things should be as simple as they can be, but
no simpler. - EInstein
6Introduction
- NGN access versus NGN core (source ECTA)
- NGN access the deployment of fibre into the
local loop, either to the incumbents street
cabinet or the deployment of fibre all the way
to customer premises (typically apartment blocks
rather than individual houses). - NGN access the replacement of legacy
transmission and switching equipment by IP
technology in the core, or backbone, network.
This involves changing telephony switches and
installing routers and Voice over IP equipment. - Significantly different regulatory implications.
- My primary focus in this talk is on the NGN core,
but broadband deployment generally and NGN access
in particular interact with these issues.
7Introduction
- My history
- Senior Consultant, WIK-Consult (Germany)
- Senior Advisor for Internet Technology, FCC (USA)
- Chief Technology Officer, GTE Internetworking
(USA) - Engineer by training
- My approach to these interconnection issues is
primarily through economics rather than
engineering.
8The economics of interconnection retail
- Calling party pays (CPP) the party that
initiates the call pays for the call, usually
based on the duration of the call generally, the
party that receives (terminates) the call pays
nothing. - Receiving party pays (RPP) or Mobile Party Pays
(MPP) the originating and terminating parties
each pay a share for the call. In North America,
where this system historically has been used,
mobile receiving parties paid but fixed receiving
parties did not. - Flat rate the consumer pays a fixed (monthly)
fee for unlimited domestic calls. - The buckets of minutes plan the consumer pays
a fixed (monthly) fee for some number of minutes
of domestic calls, but pays a per-minute fee for
minutes in excess of those in the bucket.
9The economics of interconnection retail
- CPP arrangements reflected the historical
perception that the caller is the primary
beneficiary of the call, and also the main
cost-causer. - This concept has been challenged in recent years
- Clearly, the receiver also benefits.
- If the receiver saw no merit in the call, he or
she could simply hang up thus, after the first
minute, caller and called party can be viewed as
(equal) partners in the call. (Cf. Jeon et. al.) - In the world of the IP-based NGN, origination and
termination are likely to become less relevant
over time. (Cf. de Graba)
10The economics of interconnection retail
- Consumers tend to grealy prefer flat rate (or
buckets) plans over usage-based plans (Cf.
Odlyzko) - ATT Wirelesss offer of Digital One Rate (1998)
- America Onlines flat rate Internet access (1995)
- In the United States, flat rate / bucket plans
are increasingly prevalent at all levels - Mobile services
- Fixed services, including long distance
- Internet access
11The economics of interconnection wholesale
- Calling Partys Network Pays (CPNP) the calling
partys network (the originating operator) makes
a wholesale payment to the receiving partys
network (the terminating operator). - Bill and Keep a U.S. term of art denoting the
absence of any regulatory obligation for payments
between the networks.
12The economics of interconnection wholesale
- In an unregulated CPNP system, carriers will tend
to establish very high termination charge levels.
Normal economic forces provide an inadequate
brake on this practice, because the terminating
operator is imposing the charges indirectly on
another carriers customer. The terminating
operator does not bear the full burden of
suppressing demand through a price that is
arguably too high. - These high prices impact consumer welfare in a
number of ways. This problem is general referred
to as the termination monopoly. - Paradoxically, small operators will be motivated
to set termination charges to even higher levels
than will larger operators. (Cf. Laffont and
Tirole (2001) Haucap and Dewenter) - Regulatory asymmetries for example, between
regulated fixed operators and unregulated mobile
operators can exacerbate this problem.
13The economics of interconnection
- Termination charges at the wholesale level
interact with retail pricing arrangements. - The termination fee generally sets a floor on the
retail price. - Where termination fees are high, they generally
prevent flat rate or buckets plans from
emerging. - This is true even where payments between the
operators are in rough balance, such that little
money changes hands. - Each operator will tend to view the termination
charge as a component of its marginal cost. (Cf.
Laffont and Tirole) - If an operator chooses to ignore this wholesale
cost in the hope that the payments will balance
anyway, that operator risks attracting customers
who place disproportionately many calls to
customers of other providers (adverse
selection).
14The economics of interconnection
- Mobile operators that implement CPP/CPNP tend to
have the following characteristics at the retail
level - Low or zero initial cost
- Low or zero monthly cost
- High usage (per minute) cost
- Mobile operators (U.S.) that implement buckets
plans and Bill and Keep tend to have the
following characteristics at the retail level - Higher initial cost
- Higher monthly cost
- Low or zero effective usage (per minute) cost
- These differences tend to lead to faster adoption
of the mobile service in CPP/CPNP systems, but
much lower rates of utilization.
15The economics of interconnection
Source of data U.S. FCC, 10th CMRS Report, July
2005, Table 10, based on Glen Campbell et al.,
Global Wireless Matrix 4Q04, Merrill Lynch, Apr.
13, 2005.
16The economics of interconnection
- In the U.S., the FCC has been attempting for
years to migrate their interconnection
arrangements to a Bill and Keep basis for all
services. (Cf. de Graba (2000), Atkinson and
Barnekov (2000)). - The FCCs sense has been that
- Bill and Keep simplifies regulatory rate-setting
or avoids it altogether. - Bill and Keep already works well in many settings
in the U.S. - Bill and Keep will be easier to apply to the
IP-based networks of the future. - To date, the U.S. has been unable to forge a
political consensus to move forward on this issue.
17Peering economic models
- An extensive economics literature exists about
interconnection in the traditional PSTN world. - An emerging literature deals with interconnection
in the world of the Internet. - We are in the early stages of understanding the
relationships between the two.
18Peering and Transit
- Peering is an agreement between ISPs to carry
traffic for each other and for their respective
customers. Peering does not include the
obligation to carry traffic to third parties.
Peering is usually a bilateral business and
technical arrangement, where two providers agree
to accept traffic from one another, and from one
anothers customers (and thus from their
customers customers). - Transit is an agreement where an ISP agrees to
carry traffic on behalf of another ISP or end
user. In most cases transit will include an
obligation to carry traffic to third parties.
Transit is usually a bilateral business and
technical arrangement, where one provider (the
transit provider) agrees to carry traffic to
third parties on behalf of another provider or an
end user (the customer). In most cases, the
transit provider carries traffic to and from its
other customers, and to and from every
destination on the Internet, as part of the
transit arrangement. In a transit agreement, the
ISP often also provides ancillary services, such
as Service Level Agreements, installation
support, local telecom provisioning, and Network
Operations Center (NOC) support. - Peering thus offers a provider access only to a
single providers customers. Transit, by
contrast, usually provides access at a
predictable price to the entire Internet. - Historically, peering has often been done on a
bill-and-keep basis, without cash payments.
Peering where there is no explicit exchange of
money between parties, and where each party
supports part of the cost of the interconnect,
is typically used where both parties perceive a
roughly equal exchange of value. Peering
therefore is fundamentally a barter
relationship. - - NRIC V (advisory council to FCC)
19Peering and Transit
Transit Connection
Larger ISP or Backbone
Regional or Local ISP
Many remote locations connect to a regional or
local ISP with individual, low bandwidth
connections
Concentration to a larger ISP or backbone
provider with global connectivity by means of
a concentrated, high bandwidth connection
20Peering and Transit
Transit Connection
Larger ISP or Backbone
Regional or Local ISP
This peering connection will tend to exist if the
cost of the connection to each ISP is less
than the money each saves due to reduced transit
traffic.
Transit Connection
Larger ISP or Backbone
Regional or Local ISP
21Peering and Transit
Cf. Lixin Gao (2000)
- In general, money flows upstream, while
obligations flow downstream. - Transit agreements are vastly simpler than
peering agreements. - In general, peering is a bilateral technical and
commercial arrangement.
22Peering economic models
- Define
- co as cost of origination
- ct as cost of termination
- a as an access charge levied on the sender
- Due to shortest exit, ct gt co
- Then
- cost for the originating network is co a
- cost for the terminating network is ct a
- The model extends in a straightforward way to
accommodate multiple levels of quality of service
(QoS).
Network i
Network j
Source Laffont et. al., Internet
Interconnection and the Off-Net-Cost Pricing
Principle
23Peering economic models
- A key difference with this telecommunications
literature is that in the latter there is a
missing price receivers do not pay for receiving
calls The missing price has important
implications - The operators optimal usage price reflects
their perceived marginal cost. But when operators
do not charge their customers for the traffic
they receive, operator i s perceived marginal
cost of outgoing traffic is the unit cost of
traffic is the on-net cost c, augmented by the
expected off-net markup. - Comparing the two perceived marginal costs of
outgoing traffic with and without receiver
charge, for given access charge and market
shares, the price for sending traffic is higher
(lower) than in the presence of reception charges
if and only if there is a termination discount
(markup). - In sum, the missing payment affects the
backbones perceived costs, and it reallocates
costs between origination and reception.
Source Laffont et. al., Internet
Interconnection and the Off-Net-Cost Pricing
Principle
24Market power and interconnection
- Regulators continue to find it necessary to
intervene where an operator has Significant
Market Power (SMP). - The migration to NGN will not necessarily
eliminate SMP. Notably, market power associated
with last mile bottlenecks will continue to be a
significant regulatory concern for the
foreseeable future. - A new market power challenge has appeared,
primarily in the U.S. the network neutrality
issue.
25Market power and interconnection
- Network neutrality means different things to
different people - The possibility that an integrated ISP might
offer better performance to some Internet sites
than to others - The possibility that an integrated ISP might
assess a surcharge where a customer wants
better-than-standard performance to certain
Internet sites - The fear that the integrated ISP might permit
access only to affiliated sites, and block access
to unaffiliated sites - The fear that the integrated ISP might assess
surcharges for the use of certain applications,
or of certain devices - The fear that the integrated ISP might disallow
outright the use of certain applications, or of
certain devices, especially where those
applications or devices compete with services
that the integrated ISP offers and for which it
charges and - The fear that the integrated ISP might erect
tollgates in order to collect unwarranted
charges from unaffiliated content providers who
need to reach the integrated ISPs customers.
26Market power and interconnection
- The chief executive of ATT, Edward Whitacre,
told Business Week last year that his company
(then called SBC Communications) wanted some way
to charge major Internet concerns like Google and
Vonage for the bandwidth they use. "What they
would like to do is use my pipes free, but I
ain't going to let them do that because we have
spent this capital and we have to have a return
on it," he said. NY Times, March 8, 2006
27Market power and interconnection
- Many of the concerns that have been raised in
regard to network neutrality relate to behaviors
that, in the absence of market power, would tend
to enhance consumer welfare. - Some would appear to represent legitimate price
discrimination. - Others enforce the economic property of
excludability (the ability to prevent someone
from using a service that he did not pay for) in
support of price discrimination. - The form of market power that could potentially
be exploited in anticompetitive ways in
connection with network neutrality relates to
network externalities (where the value of a
service depends on the number of users of the
service). (Cf. Katz and Shapiro (1985)). - The degree to which this issue has heated up
recently in the U.S. probably reflects increasing
concentration in the relevant markets.
28Market power and interconnection
- Trying to address these network neutrality
challenges through regulation ex ante (in
advance) is likely to prove extremely difficult. - A first line of defense for regulatory
authorities should instead be to maintain the
competitiveness of the underlying markets,
especially as regards broadband Internet access
and as regards high capacity Internet transit.
Service-based competition (rather than
facilities-based competition) would be sufficient
for this purpose. - In countries where competition law provides an ex
post (after the fact) complement to regulation,
it might be most appropriate to deal with
occasional or sporadic problems related to
network neutrality through the exercise of
competition law.
29Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- A series of initiatives to implement
inter-provider QoS on an inter-provider basis
have generated scant results. - Early Nineties RSVP
- Late Nineties - DiffServ
- Backbone peering attempts especially circa 2000
- 2001
30Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- Early Nineties Integrated Services Architecture
(RSVP) - Comprehensive system of prioritized delivery.
- Required significant soft state in the routers.
- Perceived as too difficult to deploy.
- Not entirely true BBN (my former employer) had
working RSVP-capable production networks from the
mid-Nineties. - Technical success.
- Market failure.
- No customer willingness to pay a significant
premium for on-net differentiated service.
31Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- Traffic is classified on entry to a network
- Metered
- Marked
- Policed
- Shaped
- Services implemented based on defined Per-Hop
Behaviors (PHBs) - Queue processing (prioritization)
- Queue management (drops)
32Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- At a technical level, QoS is not fundamentally
hard. - DiffServ is technically trivial.
- MPLS in a single network is technically trivial.
- Cross-provider MPLS is only marginally harder.
- Even RSVP is not that hard. My company, BBN, had
working production RSVP-compliant networks in
1995! - In terms of the basic economics, QoS is not
fundamentally hard. - Nonetheless, there is no significant
cross-provider roll-out to date. - WHY NOT?
33Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- M/G/1 queueing analysis of link performance
- (with clocking delay of 50 µsecs (284 byte
packets) and a 155 Mbps link)
34Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- For real time services such as voice telephony
traffic, it is important that mean delay and
variability of delay be held to low values. - Delay in excess of about 150 milliseconds causes
collisions. - Buffering can address variability as long as the
mean and variance are not too great. - The buffer then represents a fixed increment to
the propagation delay. - For circuit speeds of T-3 and up, queuing delays
in a properly designed network will generally be
less than 1 millisecond per hop under normal
operating conditions. - Propagation delay (speed of light) will tend to
dominate any variable queuing delays under normal
operating conditions.
35Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- IMPLICATION Most of the time, and under normal
conditions, variable delay in the core of the
network(s) is unlikely to be perceptible to the
VoIP user. - FURTHER IMPLICATION Consumers will not willingly
pay a large premium for a performance difference
that they cannot perceive. - Packet delay is more likely to be an issue
- For slower circuits at the edge of the network
- For shared circuits (e.g. cable modem services)
- When one or more circuits are saturated
- When one or more components have failed
- When a force majeure incident has occurred
36Differentiated Quality of Service (QoS)
- Technical challenges, or economic challenges?
- Revenues
- Limited customer willingness to pay a substantial
premium. - Limited benefits until widely deployed (network
effects). - Costs
- Agreements needed with many peering partners.
- Economic transaction costs to negotiate each
agreement. - Measurement, management and dispute resolution
challenges. - The business case is difficult to prove in.
- Implies difficulties in getting past the initial
adoption hump.
37Interconnection and universal service
- Most countries seek to ensure that all can afford
basic communication services. This often implies
some degree of subsidy support to areas that are
remote or that have low teledensity. - There is some economic basis for this, grounded
again in the theory of network externalities. The
communications network is worth more to everyone
if nearly everyone is reachable through it. - At the same time, economists worry about the
economic distortions implicit in any system of
universal service. Universal service implies that
service will be deployed to areas where rational
economic judgment alone would not lead to
deployment. - In many countries, interconnection charges are
used to provide implicit or explicit funding
support for universal service programs.
38Interconnection and universal service
- Some developing countries (and also some
developed countries, including the U.S.) permit
rural operators to assess higher termination fees
than urban operators, presumably reflecting
higher unit costs (due to lower density of
consumers, and possibly to more challenging
geography). This effectively subsidizes the rural
operator. Organizations such as the World Bank
have tended to be supportive of such practices. - International termination charges have also
tended to generate subsidies from developed
countries to developing countries, even if the
rates are symmetric. Far more calls are placed
from developed countries to developing countries
than vice versa. This asymmetry generates an
effective subsidy to the developing world, which
could be used to support universal service
programs.
39Interconnection and universal service
- The migration to IP-based NGNs will tend to put
pressure on any interconnection arrangements that
are widely at variance with cost. It will,
moreover, tend to expand opportunities to bypass
inefficient interconnection arrangements. - There are many, obvious problems associated with
using termination charges to subsidize universal
service. Nonetheless, the concern that must be
raised is that it is not clear what developing
countries might do if these subsidies were to
disappear over the next few years.
40Billing and accounting
- Billing/accounting systems must enable a service
or network provider to reliably charge for the
service. - Both parties must ultimately agree on the
correctness of the charge. To the extent that
charges are not predetermined, this implies - Clear documentation of the basis for the bill.
- Data capture (accounting) to create and
substantiate the bill. - Dispute resolution / reconciliation procedures.
41Billing and accounting requirements
- In a DiffServ environment, billing and accounting
systems would likely need to - Enable the sending provider to mark the DS
codepoint required for a particular IP datagram. - Enable the receiving provider to accept or
decline the request, remarking the IP datagram if
necessary. - Authorize one provider to apply a surcharge to
the other's traffic in exchange for respecting
its request for differentiated handling. - Enable both providers to verify that the service
that was delivered conformed to their service
level specification commitments to one another. - Facilitate trouble-shooting across multiple
provider networks. - The providers could, instead, choose to waive
payments (Bill and Keep).
42Billing and accounting challenges
- In an NGN world, the network service provider
(the ISP) will not necessarily be the application
service provider. A VoIP service or an IPTV
provider will not necessarily be a network
provider. - The network provider will have only limited
visibility into third party applications running
over its network (and the user could further
reduce visibility by encrypting the data). - The unaffiliated application provider may have
extensive visibility into the application that it
provides, but only limited visibility into the
use of network resources. - Usage-based billing will be possible only to the
extent that the usage can be rigorously and
unambiguously measured.
43Billing and accounting challenges
- How will providers and customers ensure that
service commitments are met? Whose statistics
will govern? - Competitive providers are reluctant to share
statistics about their respective networks with
one another, and peering agreements typically
restrict the ability of the providers to disclose
information about one anothers networks to third
parties. Can sufficient information be disclosed
to customers? - How will responsibility be allocated if a
customers traffic fails to achieve its committed
service level specification? Traffic data can
legitimately be interpreted in more than one way.
Will it be possible to administer payments and
penalties rigorously and fairly? - How can providers prevent fraud? How can they
distinguish between fraud and legitimate use?
44A Hypothetical Scenario
- Consider a migration to an IP-based NGN in a
European country. - Prior to migration, the country has
- an incumbent wired and wireless operator that had
previously been the countrys PTT (BigCo), and
that still has substantial market share and
market power - various wired and wireless competitive operators
- various independent providers of broadband
Internet services, some facilities-based, some
providing service competition based on
procompetitive regulation (LLU, bitstream, and
shared access) - several independent providers of VoIP and
- a number of local providers of Internet content,
both web and video.
45A Hypothetical Scenario
- BigCo chooses to migrate
- To achieve economies of scope through improved
integration - To achieve faster time-to-market for new
services. - Competitors may feel pressure to migrate to
maintain competitiveness with BigCo. - BigCo would likely continue to be subject to
procompetitive regulatory obligations for
competitive access to last mile facilities (e.g.
local loop unbundling LLU, shared access and
bitstream access), until and unless three or more
effective competitors were to emerge for the last
mile. - Interconnection obligations would likely remain
in place as long as traditional interconnection
is offered.
46A Hypothetical Scenario
- Would it be necessary to impose interconnection
obligations for IP-based interconnection? Assume
arguendo that obligations are not imposed. - Extrapolating from todays experience, BigCo
would likely be motivated to implemented
(settlement-free) IP-based peering arrangements
with large international operators, and probably
with a small number of its largest domestic
competitors. - If BigCo were not motivated to peer with any
domestic competitors, regulatory action might
possibly be appropriate. (Cf. Telstra in
Australia) - Smaller competitors could purchase transit from
BigCo, or from one or more of its competitors.
47A Hypothetical Scenario
ForeignCo
48A Hypothetical Scenario
- Assume that key underlying markets (including
broadband access, and leased lines) are subject
either to (1) effective competition, or (2)
effective regulation. - Under these various assumptions, BigCos
competitors should be able to reach BigCo
customers with unit costs that are not greatly
different from those of BigCo itself. This would
appear to imply that a competitive market should
emerge, with prices not greatly in excess of
marginal cost. - ForeignCo would be able to reach BigCo customers
with unit costs that exceed those of BigCo
primarily by the incremental costs imposed by
ForeignCo operating from outside the national
territory. If BigCo were to price excessively,
doing so might encourage a ForeignCo to attempt
entry. This implicit threat also serves to
constrain BigCos behavior.
49A Hypothetical Scenario
- BigCo should be able to charge a premium for
better-than-best efforts service under these
assumptions, but its ability to charge a premium
will be limited to the willingness of consumers
to pay, given that they have meaningful
competitive alternatives. - BigCo should be able to sell application services
(VoIP, IPTV and more) to its broadband customers,
and there is no obvious reason why this should
not be profitable however, their price will tend
to be constrained by the ability of independent
service providers (e.g. Skype) to offer services
directly to BigCos broadband customers. - Again, all of this seems to imply the likely
emergence of an appropriately competitive market,
as long as underlying facilities (broadband
access, leased lines and so on) are subject
either to effective competition or to effective
regulation.
50A Hypothetical Scenario
- This scenario did not assume a regulatory
obligation to interconnect at the IP level. - The apparent implication is that a Coasian
solution letting the providers determine their
own interconnection arrangements through private
arrangements should continue to function well
in an NGN world (much as it does today), as long
as regulators are careful to prevent exploitation
of market power in regard to underlying
facilities.
51A Hypothetical Scenario
- Implementation of differentiated QoS among peers
is likely to develop only slowly, for reasons
previously explained. - Differentiated QoS among transit customers of
BigCo, and those of its larger competitors, might
turn out to be a more tractable problem. In
countries where much of the traffic tends to
remain within the country (e.g. due to language
affinity effects), it might be possible to
achieve critical mass in this way, and then to
link islands of QoS-capable connectivity.
52Summary
- Provided that underlying markets for Internet
transit and for consumer broadband Internet
access are effectively competitive (or
effectively regulated), a Coasian NGN
interconnection regime of private unregulated
arrangements is likely to be more efficient, and
more consistent with consumer welfare, than a
regulated regime. - Conversely, where these markets are not
effectively competitive, mandates for
interconnection at the IP level and/or network
neutrality may prove to be unavoidable,
particularly once existing PSTN interconnection
is withdrawn. The migration to NGN potentially
creates new sources of market power, at the same
time that it creates new possibilities for
competition. - Policymakers might consequently be well advised
to focus their attention first on ensuring
competitive markets, and only secondarily on NGN
interconnection.
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