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A WORLD OF CHANGE A CONSTANT WORLD

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... just under 1 in 4 people (nearly 13 million) live in ... Forces which threaten peoples lives. vs. Forces which provide opportunities for their improvement ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A WORLD OF CHANGE A CONSTANT WORLD


1
A WORLD OF CHANGE A CONSTANT WORLD
  • COMMUNITY FOUNDATIONS SYMPOSIUM ON A GLOBAL
    MOVEMENT
  • Berlin, Germany, Dec. 2-4,2004

2
Outline
  • Introduction Thinking About the Future
  • Existing Trends
  • Alternative Futures
  • Vision, Mission, Goals, Strategies
  • Where We Come In The Role of CFs
  • Summary and Conclusion A Constant World

3
Constantly Changing World
  • We live in a constantly changing world due to
    scientific progress and technological innovation
  • Future is uncertain and unpredictable
  • Final outcome depends on battle between two
    opposing forces
  • Those that threaten peoples lives
  • Those that improve them

4
Constantly Changing World
  • Why think about the future of the world?
  • To better shape what will happen
  • To apply what we learn to our own community
  • The Power of One

5
State of the Present
  • Progress in human development during the 20th
    century was dramatic and unprecedented.
  • 2004 Human Development Report

6
State of the Present Good News
7
State of the Present Good News
8
State of the Present Good News
9
State of the Present Good News
10
State of the Present Good News
11
State of the Present Good News
12
State of the Present Good News
  • Child Mortality more than halved (1960-2000)
  • Adult Illiteracy almost halved (1975-2000)
  • Secondary school enrollment rose by more than 40
    (1982-2002)
  • Population growth slowed down from 80.5 million a
    year in 1982 to 73.9 million in 2002.

13
State of the Present Good News
  • International cooperation to reduce threats of
    new and reemerging diseases and immune
    microorganisms (e.g. SARS)
  • Women
  • Increasing number of women with formal education
    or participation in the cash economy.
  • This has contributed to the improvement in
    improved general welfare better nutrition
    conditions, lower infant mortality, lower birth
    rates

14
State of the Present Good News
  • Political front
  • Fewer major armed conflicts from 31 in 1982 to
    25 in 2002
  • Vast majority of world living in peace
  • Greater dialogue and formal and informal regional
    groupings adding to stability
  • Number of democracies growing, number of
    dictatorships decreasing
  • Incidence of violent crime has gone down

15
State of the Present Good News
  • Science and Technology front
  • Greater efficiency
  • It takes 33 less energy to produce a unit of
    output in industrial economies than it did 30
    years ago
  • Revolution in information and communication
    technology
  • 13 of humanity connecting to the internet, and
    digital divide between North and the South
    narrowing from 40-to-1 in 1996 to 4-to-1 last
    year

16
State of the Present Bad News
  • Overall progress not equally shared by all the
    6.4 billion people who populate the 194
    countries/areas around the world.

17
State of the Present Bad News
  • 54 countries are poorer now (lower real per
    capita income) than in 1990
  • Of these, 20 are from SSA, 17 from E. Europe and
    CIS, 6 from Latin America and the Caribbean, 6
    from East Asia and the Pacific, and 5 from the
    Arab States
  • Income poverty rates increased in 37 of 67
    countries with data
  • At the beginning of this century, 1.1 billion
    people were living on less than 1 PPP US a day

18
State of the Present Bad News
19
State of the Present Bad News
20
State of the Present Bad News
21
State of the Present Bad News
  • In 19 countries more than 1 person in 4 is going
    hungry and the situation is failing to improve or
    getting worse.
  • In 21 countries the hunger rate has increased
    831 million people are undernourished.
  • In 14 countries, under-5 mortality rate increased
    in the 1990s.
  • In 7 countries, almost one in four children will
    not see their fifth birthday 11 million
    children under age 5 are dying each year.

22
State of the Present Bad News
  • In 9 countries more than 1 person in 4 does not
    have access to safe water 1.2 billion people
    have no access to safe water
  • In 15 countries more than 1 person in 5 does not
    have access to adequate sanitation 2.7 billion
    people have no access to adequate sanitation.
  • In the 2 cases above, the situation is failing to
    improve or getting worse.
  • Water tables are falling on every continent,
    agricultural land is becoming brackish,
    groundwater aquifers are being polluted.

23
State of the Present Bad News
  • More than 30 new and highly infectious diseases
    have been identified in the last 20
    years(including AIDS, SARS, Ebola, avian flu) and
    for many there is as yet no treatment cure, or
    vaccine
  • Annual AIDS deaths rose to 3.10 million in 2002
    from zero in 1982 in SSA alone over 7 million
    are infected

24
State of the Present Bad News
  • Some 104 million primary age children are not in
    school, 60 of them are girls
  • Developing country debt in 2002 was 74 more than
    it was 20 years earlier

25
State of the Present Bad News
  • Women
  • Violence against women between 15-44 years of age
    causes more death and disability than cancer,
    malaria, traffic accidents, and even war
  • Estimates are that 1 out of every 3 women has
    been physically assaulted by an intimate male
    partner at some point in her life

26
State of the Present Bad News
  • Political front
  • Some 1.8 billion people live in countries where
    political regimes do not fully accommodate
    democratic, political and civil freedoms
  • Between 1990 and 2001 there were 57 major armed
    conflicts in 45 locations
  • These have killed as many as 3.6 million people
    and injured many millions more more than 90 of
    whom are civilians, with children accounting for
    at least half of the casualties.

27
State of the Present Bad News
  • Political front
  • About 900 million people belong to ethnic,
    religious, racial or linguistic groups that
    face discrimination

28
State of the Present Bad News
  • Environment front
  • Atmospheric CO2 has increased for another record
    year mean monthly CO2 in the atmosphere has
    grown by almost 10 from 337.9 to 367.5 ppm 3 of
    the last 5 years were the warmest in recorded
    history
  • Forestlands have diminished, from 4.1 billion
    hectares in 1982 to 3.9 billion in 2002

29
State of the Present Bad News
  • Terrorism and crime
  • No. of people killed in terrorist attacks almost
    quintupled between 1982 (739) and 2002 (3361)
  • Civilization is more vulnerable to cyber
    terrorism, information pollution (e.g.,
    misinformation, pornography, junk email, media
    violence) and virus attacks cyber weapons can
    now be considered weapons of mass destruction.

30
State of the Present Bad News
  • Terrorism and crime
  • Transnational organized crime has grown to the
    point (2 trillion a year) that it is
    increasingly interfering with the ability of
    governments to act

31
State of the Present Bad News
  • Important Note
  • Just as progress is unevenly distributed at the
    international level, the same phenomena can be
    observed at regional, national, subnational and
    community levels

32
State of the Present Bad News
  • Even in developed countries
  • In the US official poverty rate in 2002 was
    12.1, up from 11.7 per cent in 2001 (34.6
    million v. 32.9 million)
  • The number of Americans living in severe poverty
    with incomes below half of the poverty line was
    14.1 million, with 3.9 million Americans
    suffering from food insecurity and hunger

33
State of the Present Bad News
  • Even in developed countries
  • In the UK, just under 1 in 4 people (nearly 13
    million) live in poverty
  • In Germany, once the new package of welfare
    reform law goes into effect in January 2005, it
    is estimated that the no. of poor people will
    increase from 2.8 to 4.5 million people.

34
State of the Present Bad News
  • In the Philippines
  • Some provinces exhibit similar human development
    as developed countries, while others would be at
    the same level as countries in Sub Saharan Africa
  • Average life expectancy in Philippine provinces
    ranges from 53 years to 71 years
  • Infant mortality rates range from 41.8 to 80.4
  • Cohort survival rates in elementary range from
    22 to 81

35
Alternative Futures
  • Future depends on which will dominate
  • Forces which threaten peoples lives
  • vs
  • Forces which provide opportunities for their
    improvement

36
Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios
  • Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and
    sanitation, there will be increased disease,
    migrations, conflict
  • e.g. roughly 40 of the worlds population live
    in 260 major international water basins shared by
    more than two countries already a potential
    source of conflict

37
Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios
  • 98 of the growth of the worlds population up to
    2050 is expected to be in the poorest countries
  • Within the next two decades, hundreds of millions
    more could be added to the 1.1 billion people
    living on less than USPPP1 a day
  • 285 minority groups could be in conflicts due to
    different forms of injustice

38
Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios
  • Advances in science and technology increase the
    possibility that single individuals acting alone
    can create and use weapons of mass destruction
  • e.g. hospitals, food storage, water supply and
    other support systems increasingly depend on
    computerization and the internet, and are thus
    vulnerable to cyber terrorism.
  • Global warming, continuing unabated, may lead to
    a greenhouse effect growing beyond human control

39
Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios
  • AIDS could reach global catastrophic proportions,
    as by 2012 the number of people dying early of
    AIDS could double or triple
  • by 2025, China, India, and Russia, even in a
    moderate scenario, would see almost 200 million
    people infected
  • Transnational organized crime may be able to buy
    the technology to create new forms of crime to
    generate even more profits and control
    governments

40
Alternative Futures Boom Scenarios
  • State of the Future 2003 reports
  • The synergies and confluence of nanotechnology,
    biotechnology, information technology and
    cognitive science (NBIC) will create tools that
    will dramatically increase individual and group
    performance and the support systems of
    civilization
  • NBIC products will range from biometrics to
    counterterrorism systems, from restoring brain
    functioning and eyesight to increased longevity,
    not to mention increases in agricultural
    productivity

41
Alternative Futures Boom Scenarios
  • More sophisticated biomedical devices and imaging
    methods could lead to more accurate diagnosis and
    treatment of cancer, heart disease, Parkinsons,
    Alzheimer's, schizophrenia, etc.
  • Growing a new lung or a new heart may be
    possible, as will be a pharmacy-on-a-chip that
    time releases medicine

42
Alternative Futures Boom Scenarios
  • Natural capital will be replaced by made capital,
    technological change will continue to result in
    improvements in collective human-machine capital
    and reduce dependence on raw materials thus
    ensuring sustainable development

43
Alternative Futures
  • State of the Future Index (SOFI)
  • a statistical combination of key indicators and
    forecasts designed to show the direction and
    intensity of future change as well as to identify
    the factors responsible

44
RESHAPING THE FUTURE
  • CASE STUDY UN MILLENIUM DECLARATION, MILLENIUM
    DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG), MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT
    COMPACT

45
RESHAPING THE FUTURE VISION
  • Vision is guided by Fundamental Values
  • Freedom
  • Equality
  • Solidarity
  • Tolerance
  • Respect for Nature
  • Shared Responsibility

46
Vision
  • What is envisioned is a world at peace, secure,
    and disarmed
  • What is envisioned is a world free from want
  • What is envisioned is a world where the common
    environment is protected rather than irredeemably
    spoilt by human activities
  • What is envisioned is a world characterized by
    democracy, upholding the rule of law and human
    rights

47
RESHAPING FUTURE MISSION
  • Millenium Development Goals (MDGs)
  • 8 goals, together with a set of 18 specific,
    time-bound targets (with exceptions), as well as
    48 indicators that would provide measures of
    performance
  • Goals range from halving extreme poverty to
    halting the spread of HIV/AIDS to universal
    completion of primary grades
  • Interrelated improvement in one improves
    prospects for the others, and vice versa.

48
RESHAPING FUTURESTRATEGIES
  • Key Elements
  • 1. Not a one-size-fits all, but tailored to fit
    needs of the country, owned by stakeholders
  • 2. Prioritize the poorest, most neglected top
    priority, high priority
  • 3. Burden sharing and accountability among the
    stakeholders

49
WHAT DO THESE ALL MEAN FOR CFs?
  • There is a need for CFs everywhere rich or poor
    countries, North v. South
  • Knowledge is power familiarity with situation,
    stakeholders, possibilities make for greater
    effectiveness, success
  • Knowledge not just book-learning includes
    combined inputs and experience of stakeholders
    (e.g. sharing of best practices)
  • Strategies must be OWNED

50
The Role of Community Foundations
  • Many choices education, health, women, debt,
    democracy, environment, youth (the warm/soft
    heart)
  • Choice depends on both specific needs of the
    community and financial and human resources of
    the CF (the cool/hard head)

51
The Role of CFs
  • Not limited to design of strategies and provision
    of philanthropic services
  • Must include participation in larger arena,e.g.,
    serve as watchdogs to ensure the fulfillment of
    local, national and international commitments
  • Networking with other CFs makes each one a
    stakeholder in the others activities and
    contributes to their success

52
Summary and Conclusion
  • The world is constantly changing
  • Progress around the world has been uneven
  • There is an infinite number of futures,
    ranging from the most pessimistic to the most
    optimistic
  • Getting the future we prefer involves vision,
    mission, goals, targets and strategies cool
    heads in the service of warm hearts

53
Summary and Conclusion
  • Everything depends on us. That is the constant,
    unchanging, truth we are in charge
  • In the end, the future is shaped by the people,
    by us by our commitment or our indifference, by
    our despair or by our confidence

54
All We Really Need To Know We Learned in
Kindergarten
  • SHARE EVERYTHING
  • PLAY FAIR
  • DONT HIT PEOPLE
  • PUT THINGS BACK WHERE YOU FOUND THEM
  • CLEAN UP YOUR OWN MESS
  • DONT TAKE THINGS THAT ARENT YOURS

55
ALL WE REALLY NEED TO KNOW WE LEARNED IN
KINDERGARTEN
  • SAY YOURE SORRY WHEN YOU HURT SOMEBODY
  • WASH YOUR HANDS BEFORE YOU EAT
  • FLUSH
  • WARM COOKIES AND COLD MILK ARE GOOD FOR YOU

56
ALL WE REALLY NEED TO KNOW WE LEARNED IN
KINDERGARTEN
  • LIVE A BALANCED LIFE LEARN SOME AND THINK SOME
    AND DRAW AND PAINT AND SING AND DANCE AND PLAN
    AND WORK EVERY DAY SOME
  • TAKE A NAP EVERY AFTERNOON
  • WHEN YOU GO OUT INTO THE WORLD, WATCH OUT FOR
    TRAFFIC, HOLD HANDS, AND STICK TOGETHER

57
ALL WE REALLY NEED TO KNOW WE LEARNED IN
KINDERGARTEN
  • BE AWARE OF WONDER
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