Investigating the Effects of the SAL on TC Intensity Change and Model Forecasts of Track and Intensi

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Investigating the Effects of the SAL on TC
Intensity Change and Model Forecasts of Track and
Intensity
Jason P. Dunion University of Miami/CIMAS
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
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Why is the Atlantic such a relatively inactive
basin? Why do only 1 in 10 AEWS develop?

• Is the SAL an important piece of the TC intensity
  problem in the Atlantic?
• Document how the SALs dry air, enhanced
  vertical wind shear, and suspended dust can
  affect TC intensity change.
• Document how effectively the SAL is being
  represented in forecast models and if NAMMA data
  can improve forecasts.
• Design aircraft sampling strategies to help best
  address these questions.

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NOAA G-IV 75 hrs
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NOAA P-3 77 hrs