An Epistemic Approach Applied for Integrated Water Quantity and Quality Problems: Case Study Berlin

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An Epistemic ApproachApplied for Integrated
Water Quantity and Quality ProblemsCase Study
Berlin_________________________________
V. Wenzel Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact
Research Dept. Integrated Systems Analysis
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Content

• 1. The Integrated Approach
• 2. Case Study Berlin Waters Quantity Quality
• An integrated model of the Greater Berlin
  river-network
• Embedding into a Framework
• for integrated regional problem solving
• An actual problem and Alternative Strategies
• for its potential solution
• Evaluating the results of impact analyses
• Integrating evaluation criteria
• NAIADE Multicriteria- Equity-analyses
• Ranking Decision Support

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Pattern for an integrated approach
The miracle of life
Epistemic structure
Conception Genome Proteome Organs
Growth Saturation Organs Functions Integratio
n Organism Viability
Question, Problem, Conflict Selective
Cumulation Saturation Epistemic
Aggregation Answer, Solution
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Investigation of complex systems
Epistemology in general
Problem definition and analysis Stakeholder,
Common values Conceptualisation for problem
solving Actions, Criteria, Model set-up
Definition of scenarios External Drivers,
Alternatives Impact-Analysis Evaluation of
Alternatives Index-variables, Multi-criteria
analysis Negotiation for Compromise Conflict
analysis Optimal Compromise Ranking
Question, Problem Selective Cumulation
Saturation Epistemic Aggregation
Answer, Solution
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Basic Integration Scheme
Leitbilder
Global Change
Question Problem Conflict
Interdisciplinary Studies
Integrated Assessment
Transdisciplinary Participation
Answer Solution Compromise
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Language Categories
Category Symbol 1 Regions REG
Geographical objects of investigation
2 Time Range TIR Simulation
interval for scenarios 3 Time Units
TIU Time steps of models 4 Master Scenarios
MSC Regional problems, conflicts
tasks 5 Stakeholders STA Interest
groups institutions 6 Exogeneous drivers
EXO Components of Global Change or
other drivers 7 Alternatives ALT
Management strategies as bundles of options 8
Management Fields MTF Fields for
management activities 9 Management Options
MTO Activities as quantitative
measures 10 Models MOD Methods,
instruments for impact analyses
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Language Categories cont.
category symbol 11 Single
Indicators IND Variables,
states 12 Index Variables IDX
Aggregated indicators 13 Criteria CRI
for integrated evaluation 14 Alternatives
vs. Criteria AvC Impact matrix for
multicriteria analysis 15 Alternatives vs.
Stakeholders AvS Equity matrix for
conflict analysis 16 Leitbilder
LBD Generally accepted values
17 Integrated Impact Analysis IIA
18 Multicriteria Analysis
MCA 19 Equity Analysis EQA 20
Negotiations NEG
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Research object River system of Greater Berlin
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Greater Berlin Integrated waters model
Episodic Fish Mortality
LUSIM Soil Sealing geogr. explicit
Demography Social Dyn.
Urbanization
Waters Quality Classes
QSIM Waters Quality
Canal Overflow
ArcEGMO Rain Water run-off
Climate Change
Precipitation Patterns
Trophy Saproby Pollution
HYDRAX Hydrodynamics
Management quantity- sensitive
ArcGRM Long Range Rationing
Demands
EMMO Aquatic Ecosystem
Matter Charges
Bathing Site Water Quality
Supply Risks
Management quality- sensitive
Index for Supply Security
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Framework for Problem Solving
Master Scenario
Participation Stakeholders of Interest
groups Decision makers
Management options
Exogenous drivings
Indicators
Alternative strategies
Evaluation criteria
Development scenarios
Impact analysis
Impact matrix
Data Models Expert- knowledge Literature
Multicriteria analysis
Ranking
Equity matrix
Coalition dendrogram
Equity analysis
Policy recommendations
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Problems in the focus of research
Master-Scenarios

• Security for demanded water availability and
  expected waters quality in Berlinunder the
  conditions of Global change
• Facility and security of navigation on Lower
  Spree and Havel rivers under consideration of the
  demands with respect to environmental protection

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Components of Global Change
100 Realizations of A1-Climate Urbanization
scenario A1U geographically explicit by LUSIM

• Present state A1
• Present state B2
• - Demographic dynamics as part of
  urbanization
• - Technology and behavioural changes mapped
  through MAS-models
• to be realized later in GLOWA II

100 Realizations of B2-Climate
Urbanization scenario B2U geographically
explicit by LUSIM
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Interest groups and InstitutionsStakeholders

• Regional development authorities
• Environmental policy authorities
• Health authorities
• Water suppliers
• Energy suppliers
• Navigation agencies
• Environmental protectionists
• Bathers
• Fishermen and angler

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• 6 Management fields - with 2 or 3 options

• Senates water policy WP0 SenStadt scenario
  2025A
• WP1 SenStadt scenario 2025B
• Pur. Plant performance KAL0 b.a.u. - operation
  with present equipment KAL1 P-elimination PP
  Münchehofe,Waßmannsdorf,Ruhleben
• KAL2 membrane filtering in PP Ruhleben
• Rain water management RWB0 b.a.u. - sealing
  grows with urbanization
  RWB1 partial unsealing / detain
  more rain water
• Energy policy EP0 b.a.u. - present
  EP-capacities
• EP1 EP-capacity reduction, better cooling
  technology
• Flow regulation FR0 b.a.u. - usual adaptive
  Berlin - control
• FR1 transfer of 3.5 m3/s water Oder
  Spree basin
• Environm. protection UMW0 b.a.u. - no further
  actions
• UMW1 1 / 2 outflow PP Münchehofe
  Wuhletal
• UMW2 stop water transfer PP Ruhleben
  Teltowkanal

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• 2 4 Alternatives

4 Strategies in Berlin
ALT1 WP0,KAL0,RWB0,EP0,FR0,UMW0 - Business
as usual ALT2 WP1,KAL0,RWB1,EP1,FR0,UMW1
- Moderate Options ALT3 WP1,KAL0,RWB1,EP0,FR0,
UMW2 - Redistribution for Biotopes ALT4
WP1,KAL2,RWB1,EP0,FR0,UMW2 - Improved purific.
Biotopes ---------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------
ALT5 ALT8 as ALT1 ALT4 but with FR1 instead
of FR0 -------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
4 Scenarios in the Spree region
1. Basic-Scenario ALT1 ALT4 2. Oder-water
transfer ALT5 ALT8 3. Flooding of abandoned
holes ALT9 ALT12 4. Reduced affluxes ALT13
ALT16
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Structures for Evaluation of Alternatives
Multicriteria Evaluation NAIADE
CRI1
CRI2
CRIn
Integrating Criteria
. . . .
IDX1
IDX2
IDXn
Aggregated Index Variables
. . . .
Modelling
IND11
Single Indicators
IND12
IND13
IND21
IND22
IND23
INDn1
INDn2
INDn3
. . . .
MOD1
MOD2
MOD3
MODm
Approved Models
Selection Adaptation vs. Modelling Validation

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• Evaluation criteria
• Derived from following Aggregated Index Variables

• Water Supply Security Index
• Waters Quality Class Index
• Bathing Site Water Quality
• Episodic Fish Mortality
• Urban Climate
• Monetary Index

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The Index-ModelsBase for Evaluation criteria
Aggregated Index Variable Combined Single
indicators

• Water Supply Security Index Deficit
  probabilities for minimal discharges
• and the demands of PPs, WPs and lockage
• Waters Quality Class Index LAWA-threshold values
  for
• matter compounds and trophy
• Bathing Site Water Quality TP, Chlorophyll-a,
  Blue-green algae, Secchi depth,
• Pathogenic bacteria, Potential Bathing
  frequency
• Episodic Fish Mortality O2-provisions,
  pH-value, NH4 through
• exceptional loads by Canal overflows
• after Heavy rain events
• Urban Climate Temperature distribution, Air
  moisture and
• circulation in the urban area
• Monetary Index Balances for costs and benefits
• of the alternative strategies

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Criterion of Supply SecurityLevels of aggregation

• Demand facilities Water plants, Power plants,
  Minimal discharge Aggregates a are the single
  WPs, PPs and gauges
• ArcGRM Counts the deficit probabilities
  W(a,monat)
• A time integration yields W(a,jahr)
  W(a,pentade)
• Integration over the aggregates with individual
  weights V(p) (S q(a) W(a,p)) / Q with Q
  S q(a)
• Weight for a gauge is the demanded local
  discharge Qmin(a) ... for a PP or WP is
  the demanded quantity to be used
• For PP the deficit probability corresponds to
  those of needed multiple use of the available
  water quantity

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Waters quality index

• Components Matter compounds and Trophy
• Compounds considered O2, TOC, NO3, NO2, NH4,
  totP, solP with given LAWA-threshold values for
  the assignment of one of the 7 quality classes
  I, I-II, II, II-III, III, III-IV, IV
• Projection of the entire intervals for all
  compounds onto interval (0,1)
• Assignment of weight values qi so that O2, TOC
  and the remaining compounds together take by one
  third it follows additive combination of the
  single indicators Gi coming up with quality
  index GGS for matter compounds
• GGS S qi Gi i 1,...,7
• As measure for the trophic state serves the
  Chlorophyll-a content
• The trophic quality index GGT we receive by
  assigning one of the 7 classes I to IV guided
  by the given LAWA-threshold values

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Criterion of Bathing site Waters quality

• Aspects of an Integrating Evaluation
• Ecological States according to phosphorus
  concentration, algae blooming and secchi depth
  CHLa,
• in particular, the share of Blue-green
  algae BA
• Social Health threatening by Blue-green algae
  toxin
• and pathogenic bacteria EC
• Economic Potential vs. actual bathing frequency
  
• Normative Standardization of the Index by
  EU-orders
• G-values (guiding) for warning
• I-values (imperative) for bathing prohibition
• Index BQ after processing of all threshold
  values
• BQ (1-BQ1) / 3 (1-BQ2) / 3 (1-BQ3) / 3
• with BQ1 CHLa / 150 BQ2
  0.113BA BQ3 log(EC)/4

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Index for Bathing site water qualityTrajectories
of 3 Scenarios Basic, Oder-water transfer,
Flooding for one bathing season
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NAIADE Multi-criteria und Equity Analyses

• Developped with respect to applications in
  Ecological Economy
• Allows Fuzzy-linguistic ratings as much as
• numeric or probabilistic ones
• Provides an Equity Analysis parallel
• to MCA

NAIADE is the quintessence of a monograph to MCA
by G. Munda (JRC EC, Ispra, Italy) Multicriteria
Evaluation in a Fuzzy Environment Theory and
Applications in Ecological Economics
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Analyses with NAIADE

• Definition/Identification ofAlternatives,
  Evaluation criteria, Interest groups
• Establish Matrices Impact-Matrix
  Equity-Matrix

... only fuzzy-linguistic
Element numeric, stochastic or fuzzy
k. Criterion
k. Interest group
n. Alternative
n. Alternative

• Analyses and Results
• Impact-Matrix Ranking of Alternatives
• Equity-Matrix Coalitions dendrogram for
  Interest groups

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Ranking of the Berlin-Alternatives by water
quantity criteria
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Ranking of all Berlin/Spree-Alternativesby water
quantity criteria
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Ranking of the 4 Berlin Alternativesby criteria
for both quality and quantity
Pentade 1 (2003-2007)
Pentade 10 (2048-2052)
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Fuzzy-linguistic Scale
0 Extremely Bad Very Bad 0.08
Bad 0.24 More or Less Bad 0.41 Moderate 0.59
More or Less Good 0.76 Good 0.92 Very
Good 1 Perfect
Based on the interval (0,1), a Fuzzy-set is
defined for each of the 9 introduced linguistic
variables. The scale marks the points of
overlapping for neighboring functions.
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Equity-Matrix and Coalitions dendrogram
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Resume

• The presented method of integrative,
  participative analysis and evaluation has been
  applied and demonstrated
• with all its steps from problem definition to
  decision supportfor the case study Berlin. The
  instrument is prepared for further
  investigations.
• Following the hierarchical structure for the
  methods categories in top-down direction, coming
  investigations may also concern - other research
  objects - new problems - additional drivers
  (other components of Global change) -
  changed structures for the characteristic
  concepts
• (Stakeholders, Alternatives, Evaluation
  criteria) - new models to be applied or - the
  change of certain assumptions or model
  parameters.

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Thank you for attention!