Afghanistan: Observations, Problems

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Afghanistan Observations, Problems Solutions

• Professor Thomas H. Johnson
• Dept. of National Security Affairs
• Naval Postgraduate School
• thjohnso_at_nps,edu
• www.nps.edu/programs/ccs/

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Lack of a strategic vision for Afghanistan has
ultimately damned our engagement
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Afghanistan is NOT Iraq
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Confuse tactical victories with strategic
success the Taliban were not defeated in 2001
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Pakistan matters greatly
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We have been sold a bill of goods promoted by the
Kabulis
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Misunderstood legitimacy in Afghanistan - the
Taliban are filling that void.
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Corruption is damning
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There is more than one insurgency strategies
must be localized.
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Eager to fight CT rather than COIN
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Economy of Force war on the cheap forced
reliance on air power
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Misunderstand and give lip service to damning
affect of collateral damage
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The role of IO and PSYOP for COIN IO must drive
kinetic operations
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Too many FOBITs we are driven by a siege
mentality.
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We are fighting and administering the war from
the Provincial level when we need to be at the
subdistrict / village level
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The role of opium is overblown
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Conducting the war according to Talibans game
plan we only control the land we happen to be
standing on
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Force protection has become the mission
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Time is NOT on our side some of our expectations
are delusional while the Taliban follow a
consistent and resonating script.
Different Sense of Time
US Shaping Ops, 4 months Decisive Ops, 4 m
onths Phase 4 Ops, 4 months Taliban Shapin
g Ops, 50 years Decisive Ops, 30 years
Phase 4 Ops, forever
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Program for Culture Conflict Studies

• Provincial Profiles
• Opium information
• Political party and tribal information
• Security, opium, tribal maps
• Tribal/political analyses
• Military and non-military research papers

www.nps.edu/programs/ccs
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Tribal Genealogies
Over 40 tribal trees of ethnic, tribe, and clan
divisions.
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Tribal Maps
Majority ethnic, tribe, and clan information
across district and provincial boundaries
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Questions?