JAMM 444: Public Opinion - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 32
About This Presentation
Title:

JAMM 444: Public Opinion

Description:

a) Impeachment of Bill Clinton. b) Use of government wiretaps to fight terrorism ... Impeachment of Bill Clinton ... country if Bill Clinton resigned from ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:49
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 33
Provided by: kento6
Category:
Tags: jamm | bill | clinton | opinion | public

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: JAMM 444: Public Opinion


1
JAMM 444 Public Opinion
  • Survey Methodology
  • Question Wording
  • Feb. 12, 2008

2
Tuesday, Feb. 12
  • Quiz 2
  • Schedule update
  • Research paper topic memo
  • Democratic, Republican contests
  • Survey methods question wording
  • End of class Return news clipping assignment

3
Quiz 2
  • 1. What term is given to governors, senators, and
    other party bigwigs who have voting privileges
    at the Democratic national convention?
  • 2. Which Republican candidate pulled out of the
    race after Super Tuesday?
  • 3. What might explain why Barack Obama received
    more support in primaries in Alabama and Georgia
    than pre-election polls indicated?

4
Quiz 2
  • 4. Why might a potential candidate for public
    office commission a poll before deciding whether
    to run? (Give one reason.)
  • 5. In Travis Ridouts opinion, which of the two
    remaining Democratic candidates has the best
    chance of winning the nomination? Why?
  • BONUS What color tie did Travis wear during his
    guest lecture on Feb. 7?

5
Schedule update
  • TODAY Chapter 3, Question Wording
  • Turn in extra-credit papers on Idaho caucus
  • Thursday Chapter 4 Sampling
  • Guest speaker Chris Williams, Department of
    Statistics
  • Feb. 19 Interviewing Data Collection
  • Research topic memo due (new date)

6
Research Topic Memo
  • Due Tuesday, Feb. 19
  • See Web site http//www.class.uidaho.edu/jamm444/
    assignments.htm

7
Possible Research Topics
  • Practice (methodology)
  • Issue or controversy
  • Person (historical figure)
  • Presidential candidate
  • Primary or caucus (one state)

8
Elements of memo
  • Topic, why you have chosen it, and its importance
    to public opinion.
  • At least three research questions (things you
    hope to discover).
  • At least five sources
  • One must be from a scholarly journal, such as
    Public Opinion Quarterly
  • No more than one Web site

9
Superdelegates
  • Delegates drawn from the Democratic National
    Committee, members of Congress, governors and
    distinguished party leaders, such as former
    presidents, vice presidents, and congressional
    leaders.
  • Former House Speaker Tom Foley is a superdelegate
    from Washington state.

10
Why superdelegates matter
  • Current tally of superdelegates (CNN)
  • Clinton 224
  • Obama 135
  • Neutral/undecided/no public preference 437
  • TOTAL 796
  • This number may change over the next several
    months as people die, leave office or leave the
    Democratic Party.

11
The race for the nomination
  • Democrats
  • Clinton 1,148
  • Obama 1,121
  • Edwards 26
  • Needed for nomination 2,025

12
The race for the nomination
  • Republicans
  • McCain 783
  • Romney 286
  • Huckabee 217
  • Paul 16
  • Needed for nomination 1,191

13
Brokered convention
  • A situation in U.S. politics in which no
    candidate obtains a majority of delegates during
    the primary and caucus process. Because no
    candidate will receive enough votes on the first
    ballot to win the nomination, the convention is
    brokered through political horse-trading and/or
    multiple ballots.
  • Last brokered conventions
  • 1948 Republicans (Thomas Dewey)
  • 1952 Democrats (Adlai Stevenson)

14
Survey methodology
  • Why do a survey?
  • Measure opinion of a population too large to
    contact individually
  • Save time, save money
  • Surveys can be used in a scientific way to
    realize the great benefits of interviewing a
    representative sample instead of the whole
    population.
  • Salant Dillman, 1994

15
Surveys work, if...
  • Sample is large enough to yield desired
    precision.
  • Everyone in population has equal chance of being
    selected.
  • Questions enable respondents to give accurate
    answers.
  • Sampled respondents have similar characteristics
    to non-respondents.

16
5 key elements of a survey
  • Identify population
  • Choose type of sample
  • Choose method(s) for gathering data
  • Write (and test) questionnaire
  • Analyze the results

17
Choosing a sample
  • Identify population of interest
  • University of Idaho students
  • Moscow residents
  • Idaho voters
  • The American public

18
Choosing a sample
  • Non-probability sampling
  • 1936, Literary Digest
  • Probability sampling
  • Simple random sampling (rarely used)
  • Systematic random samples (i.e., every 30th name
    in student directory)
  • Stratified sample divided into groups (strata)
  • Cluster sampling (spread over a wide area)

19
Cluster sampling
  • Used for many national surveys
  • National Election Survey (NES)
  • General Social Survey (GSS)
  • Gallup Organization
  • 350 geographical segments
  • Sample to reflect U.S. as a whole (geographic
    area, size of community)
  • Random telephone numbers in each area

20
How big is a typical sample?
  • UI or Moscow 200 to 500
  • Idaho 500 to 800
  • National 1,000 to 1,500

21
For Thursday
  • Read PP 4 Sampling Techniques
  • Non-probability vs. probability samples
  • Sample size
  • Sampling error

22
Chapter 3 Question wording
  • 1. How can a sponsor with an ax to grind
    manipulate wording of questions?
  • What types of problems with question wording are
    more subtle but just as harmful to the accuracy
    of responses?

23
Chapter 3 Question wording
  • 2. Describe the potential problems with the
    following types of questions
  • a) Compound (multi-topic) questions
  • b) Factual questions
  • c) Double-negative questions
  • d) Leading (argumentative) questions
  • e) Branching (follow-up questions)
  • f) Use of multiple items or indexes

24
Chapter 3 Question wording
  • 3. The book gives several questions of how
    alternative wording of questions influenced
    responses. Discuss the examples presented in
    these cases
  • a) Impeachment of Bill Clinton
  • b) Use of government wiretaps to fight terrorism
  • c) The National Security Agencys collection of
    telephone records of U.S. citizens
  •  

25
Impeachment of Bill Clinton
  •  Q If the full House votes to send impeachment
    articles to the Senate for a trial, then do you
    think it would be better for the country if Bill
    Clinton resigned from office, or not?
  • Q If the full House votes to impeach Bill
    Clinton, then do you think it would be better for
    the country if Bill Clinton resigned, or not?

26
Use of government wiretaps
  •  Q After 9/11, President Bush authorized
    government wiretaps on some phone calls in the
    U.S. without getting court warrants, saying this
    was necessary to reduce the threat of terrorism.
    Do you approve or disapprove?
  • Q After 9/11, President Bush authorized
    government wiretaps on some phone calls in the
    U.S. without getting court warrants. Do you
    approve or disapprove of George W. Bush doing
    this?

27
NSA collection of phone records
  •  Q Its been reported that the NSA has been
    collecting phone records of millions of
    Americans. It then analyzes calling patterns in
    an effort to identify possible terrorist
    suspects Would you consider this an acceptable
    way for the federal government to investigate
    terrorism?
  • Q Based on what you have heard about the program
    to collect phone records, would you say you
    approve or disapprove of this government program?

28
Chapter 3 Question wording
  • 4. How can the order in which questions are asked
    affect responses? Give an example.
  • Context effect When the preceding question
    influences a response
  • Q Would you say that traffic contributes more or
    less to air pollution than industry?
  • Q Would you say that industry contributes more
    or less to air pollution than traffic?

29
Tips for better question wording
  • 1. Include filter questions
  • to exclude some respondents
  • based on interest or knowledge of issue
  • 2. Use a neutral tone
  • Unbiased phrasing of controversial topics
  • Avoid words that lead respondent to preferred
    answer (pseudo-surveys)
  • Examples Bill Sali constituent surveys

30
Question wording
  • 3. Provide middle alternatives
  • Offer a position between extremes
  • Likert scale 5 options, from strongly agree to
    neutral to strongly disagree
  • 4. Be aware of context effect
  • preceding questions affect responses
  • hard knowledge vs. attitude
  • general vs. specific

31
Question wording
  • 5. Note the order of alternatives (especially in
    phone surveys)
  • Primacy (first asked)
  • Recency (last asked)
  • Solution rotate the alternatives.

32
Reading for Thursday
  • PP 4 Sampling Techniques
  • Non-probability vs. probability samples
  • Sample size
  • Sampling error
  • Pick up news clipping assignments
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com