Title: JAMM 444: Public Opinion
1JAMM 444 Public Opinion
- Survey Methodology
- Question Wording
- Feb. 12, 2008
2Tuesday, Feb. 12
- Quiz 2
- Schedule update
- Research paper topic memo
- Democratic, Republican contests
- Survey methods question wording
- End of class Return news clipping assignment
3Quiz 2
- 1. What term is given to governors, senators, and
other party bigwigs who have voting privileges
at the Democratic national convention? - 2. Which Republican candidate pulled out of the
race after Super Tuesday? - 3. What might explain why Barack Obama received
more support in primaries in Alabama and Georgia
than pre-election polls indicated?
4Quiz 2
- 4. Why might a potential candidate for public
office commission a poll before deciding whether
to run? (Give one reason.) - 5. In Travis Ridouts opinion, which of the two
remaining Democratic candidates has the best
chance of winning the nomination? Why? - BONUS What color tie did Travis wear during his
guest lecture on Feb. 7?
5Schedule update
- TODAY Chapter 3, Question Wording
- Turn in extra-credit papers on Idaho caucus
- Thursday Chapter 4 Sampling
- Guest speaker Chris Williams, Department of
Statistics - Feb. 19 Interviewing Data Collection
- Research topic memo due (new date)
6Research Topic Memo
- Due Tuesday, Feb. 19
- See Web site http//www.class.uidaho.edu/jamm444/
assignments.htm
7Possible Research Topics
- Practice (methodology)
- Issue or controversy
- Person (historical figure)
- Presidential candidate
- Primary or caucus (one state)
8Elements of memo
- Topic, why you have chosen it, and its importance
to public opinion. - At least three research questions (things you
hope to discover). - At least five sources
- One must be from a scholarly journal, such as
Public Opinion Quarterly - No more than one Web site
9Superdelegates
- Delegates drawn from the Democratic National
Committee, members of Congress, governors and
distinguished party leaders, such as former
presidents, vice presidents, and congressional
leaders. - Former House Speaker Tom Foley is a superdelegate
from Washington state.
10Why superdelegates matter
- Current tally of superdelegates (CNN)
- Clinton 224
- Obama 135
- Neutral/undecided/no public preference 437
- TOTAL 796
- This number may change over the next several
months as people die, leave office or leave the
Democratic Party.
11The race for the nomination
- Democrats
- Clinton 1,148
- Obama 1,121
- Edwards 26
- Needed for nomination 2,025
12The race for the nomination
- Republicans
- McCain 783
- Romney 286
- Huckabee 217
- Paul 16
- Needed for nomination 1,191
13Brokered convention
- A situation in U.S. politics in which no
candidate obtains a majority of delegates during
the primary and caucus process. Because no
candidate will receive enough votes on the first
ballot to win the nomination, the convention is
brokered through political horse-trading and/or
multiple ballots. - Last brokered conventions
- 1948 Republicans (Thomas Dewey)
- 1952 Democrats (Adlai Stevenson)
14Survey methodology
- Why do a survey?
- Measure opinion of a population too large to
contact individually - Save time, save money
- Surveys can be used in a scientific way to
realize the great benefits of interviewing a
representative sample instead of the whole
population. - Salant Dillman, 1994
15Surveys work, if...
- Sample is large enough to yield desired
precision. - Everyone in population has equal chance of being
selected. - Questions enable respondents to give accurate
answers. - Sampled respondents have similar characteristics
to non-respondents.
165 key elements of a survey
- Identify population
- Choose type of sample
- Choose method(s) for gathering data
- Write (and test) questionnaire
- Analyze the results
17Choosing a sample
- Identify population of interest
- University of Idaho students
- Moscow residents
- Idaho voters
- The American public
18Choosing a sample
- Non-probability sampling
- 1936, Literary Digest
- Probability sampling
- Simple random sampling (rarely used)
- Systematic random samples (i.e., every 30th name
in student directory) - Stratified sample divided into groups (strata)
- Cluster sampling (spread over a wide area)
19Cluster sampling
- Used for many national surveys
- National Election Survey (NES)
- General Social Survey (GSS)
- Gallup Organization
- 350 geographical segments
- Sample to reflect U.S. as a whole (geographic
area, size of community) - Random telephone numbers in each area
20How big is a typical sample?
- UI or Moscow 200 to 500
- Idaho 500 to 800
- National 1,000 to 1,500
21For Thursday
- Read PP 4 Sampling Techniques
- Non-probability vs. probability samples
- Sample size
- Sampling error
22Chapter 3 Question wording
- 1. How can a sponsor with an ax to grind
manipulate wording of questions? - What types of problems with question wording are
more subtle but just as harmful to the accuracy
of responses?
23Chapter 3 Question wording
- 2. Describe the potential problems with the
following types of questions - a) Compound (multi-topic) questions
- b) Factual questions
- c) Double-negative questions
- d) Leading (argumentative) questions
- e) Branching (follow-up questions)
- f) Use of multiple items or indexes
24Chapter 3 Question wording
- 3. The book gives several questions of how
alternative wording of questions influenced
responses. Discuss the examples presented in
these cases - a) Impeachment of Bill Clinton
- b) Use of government wiretaps to fight terrorism
- c) The National Security Agencys collection of
telephone records of U.S. citizens -
25Impeachment of Bill Clinton
- Q If the full House votes to send impeachment
articles to the Senate for a trial, then do you
think it would be better for the country if Bill
Clinton resigned from office, or not? - Q If the full House votes to impeach Bill
Clinton, then do you think it would be better for
the country if Bill Clinton resigned, or not?
26Use of government wiretaps
- Q After 9/11, President Bush authorized
government wiretaps on some phone calls in the
U.S. without getting court warrants, saying this
was necessary to reduce the threat of terrorism.
Do you approve or disapprove? - Q After 9/11, President Bush authorized
government wiretaps on some phone calls in the
U.S. without getting court warrants. Do you
approve or disapprove of George W. Bush doing
this?
27NSA collection of phone records
- Q Its been reported that the NSA has been
collecting phone records of millions of
Americans. It then analyzes calling patterns in
an effort to identify possible terrorist
suspects Would you consider this an acceptable
way for the federal government to investigate
terrorism? - Q Based on what you have heard about the program
to collect phone records, would you say you
approve or disapprove of this government program?
28Chapter 3 Question wording
- 4. How can the order in which questions are asked
affect responses? Give an example. - Context effect When the preceding question
influences a response - Q Would you say that traffic contributes more or
less to air pollution than industry? - Q Would you say that industry contributes more
or less to air pollution than traffic?
29Tips for better question wording
- 1. Include filter questions
- to exclude some respondents
- based on interest or knowledge of issue
- 2. Use a neutral tone
- Unbiased phrasing of controversial topics
- Avoid words that lead respondent to preferred
answer (pseudo-surveys) - Examples Bill Sali constituent surveys
30Question wording
- 3. Provide middle alternatives
- Offer a position between extremes
- Likert scale 5 options, from strongly agree to
neutral to strongly disagree - 4. Be aware of context effect
- preceding questions affect responses
- hard knowledge vs. attitude
- general vs. specific
31Question wording
- 5. Note the order of alternatives (especially in
phone surveys) - Primacy (first asked)
- Recency (last asked)
- Solution rotate the alternatives.
32Reading for Thursday
- PP 4 Sampling Techniques
- Non-probability vs. probability samples
- Sample size
- Sampling error
- Pick up news clipping assignments