Millenium Ecosystem Assessment A Review

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Climate Change and Food Security in India
Anita Chaudhary P. K. Aggarwal Indian
Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi
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Outline

• Linkage of Climate Change and food Security
• Past and Present Climate variability Trends in
  India
• Projection of Climate Change impact on
  agriculture
• Vulnerability of Food Security

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Linkage of Climate Change and Food Security

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Climate Change and Food Security
Source Ingram et al., 2005
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Food Security
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Percentage of Malnourished People In Developing
Countries
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Projected Food Grain Availability and Demand in
India
Source Economic Survey, GOI
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Links Between Undernutrition and Hydroclimatic
Preconditions
Source Rockstorm et al.,2007
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Impacts of climate change and socio-economic
development paths on the people at risk of hunger
in developing countries
Source Schmidhuber et al., 2007
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Past and Present trends in Climate Variability of
India

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Trends in Climate Variability of India

• A 0.68C increase per century, increasing trends
  in annual mean temp., warming more pronounced
  during post monsoon and winter
• Increase in extreme rains in north-west during
  summer monsoon in recent decades, lower number of
  rainy days along east coast
• Frequency of hot days and multiple-day heatwave
  has increased in past century increase in deaths
  due to heat stress in recent years

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Trends of Extreme Events in India

• Serious and recurrent floods in N-E states of
  India during 2002, 2003 and 2004 and droughts
  during summer monsoon of 2006
• A record 944 mm of rainfall in Mumbai, India in
  2005 led to loss of over 1,000 lives with loss of
  more than US250 million
• Floods in Surat, Barmer and in Srinagar during
  summer monsoon season of 2006
• Consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 caused
  crop failures, mass starvation and affected 11
  million people in Orissa

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Area and Production of Food Grains and Oil Seeds
in Drought Year
Source Narain et al.,2002
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Projections of Climate Change Impact on
Agriculture

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Percentage Change in Yield Across the Globe

• Crop Yields are Projected to Decrease Throughout
  the Tropics and Sub-tropics, but Increase at High
  Latitudes
• Among developed regions, simulations indicate
  that North America gains in all scenarios
• Agricultural GDP increases in Russia
• Europe loses agricultural GDP in all scenarios.
  In Europe, positive climate change impacts are
  limited mostly to higher latitudes.

Source IPCC, 2007
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Projection of Impact of Climate Change on Cereal
Production

• A 2 to 5 decrease in yield potential of wheat
  and maize for a temp. rise of 0.5 to 1.5C
• For every 75 ppm increase in CO2 concentration
  rice yields will increase by 0.5 t ha-1, but
  yield will decrease by 0.6 t ha-1 for every 1 C
  increase in temperature
• In Rajasthan, a 2C rise in temp. was estimated
  to reduce production of Pearl Millet by 10-15 .
• If max. and min. temp. rise by 3C and 3.5C
  respectively, then Soyabean yields in M. P. will
  decline by 5 compared to 1998.
• Agriculture will be worst affected in the
  coastal regions, as fertile areas are vulnerable
  to inundation and salinisation

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Yield loss of Ground nut in India
Source Vara prasad et al.,2001
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Effect of Temperature on Basmati Rice Quality
Source IARI/ICAR network
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Trends in Declining Yields of Apple in H.P.
Source HPKV/ ICAR Network
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Impact of Climate Change on Oil Sardine

• Massive fishery in India annual production is
  3.8 lakh tons (15)
• Low priced staple sustenance and nutritional
  food for millions
• A tropical fish with preference for Sea surface
  temperature gt 28?C

Source CMFRI/ICAR network
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Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Along the Indian
Coast
Data Source NOAA/NASA
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Extension of Northern Boundary of Oil Sardine
The colored lines indicate percentage of All
India oil sardine production
0.1 - 1
1 - 10
10 - 25
25 - 50
gt50
Source CMFRI/ICAR network
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Climate Change Impact on Glaciers

• Climate change-related melting of glaciers could
  seriously affect 1/2 a billion people in the
  Himalaya- Hindu-Kush region for their water
  supplies
• As glaciers melt, river runoff will initially
  increase in winter or spring but eventually will
  decrease as a result of loss of ice resources
• Consequences for downstream agriculture, which
  relies on this water for irrigation, will be
  likely unfavourable in most countries of South
  Asia.

Source NASA/IPCC, 2007
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Projection of Climate Change on Water
Availability

• The gross per capita water availability in India
  will decline from about 1,820 m3/yr in 2001 to as
  low as about 1,140 m3/yr in 2050
• India will reach a state of water stress before
  2025 when the availability falls below 1000 m3
  per capita
• Warmer sea-surface temperatures along coastlines
  of South and South-East Asia would support higher
  phytoplankton blooms which will spread infectious
  bacterial diseases such as cholera
• Water-borne diseases including cholera and the
  suite of diarrhoeal diseases caused by organisms
  such as Giardia, Salmonella and Cryptosporidium
  could also become common with the contamination
  of drinking water.

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Vulnerability of Food Security

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Per Capita Food Consumption
Source FAO, 2006
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Change in Food Consumption Patterns In Developing
Countries
Source FAO,2006
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Changes in Millions at Risk of Hunger with
Increasing Global Temperature
Strong Carbon Fertilization
Weak Carbon Fertilization
Source Warren et al., 2006
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Additional Millions at Risk from Coastal Flooding
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Stylised U-shaped Human Mortality Curves as a
Function of Temperature.
Source McMiachel et al.,2006
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Adaptation to Climate Change in India

• Crop Improvement
• Crop Insurance
• Disaster Management
• Drought Proofing
• Health
• Livelihood Preservation
• Infrastructure Development

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Indicative Analysis for India of Freshwater Use
by Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems as Compared
with Water Requirements
To reach the 2015 MDG target and eradicate hunger
by 2030 and 2050.

• Capturing local rain
• Horizontal expansion of agriculture
• Imports of Food
• Changes in diet i.e. lower kcal.p-1.d-1

Source Rockstorm et al.,2006
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Climate Change Needs to be Converted from
Difficulty to Opportunity
Thank you