Peak Oil Awareness Information and Training Session - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 39
About This Presentation
Title:

Peak Oil Awareness Information and Training Session

Description:

Create awareness in the Portland community about Peak Oil ... When approximately half of the total oil available has been produced, the point ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:163
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 40
Provided by: AndrewN
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Peak Oil Awareness Information and Training Session


1
Peak Oil AwarenessInformation and Training
Session
Presented by the Portland Peak Oil group
2
Who are we?
The Portland Peak Oil Group
  • Were a grass roots group of concerned local
    citizens, from different backgrounds, with
    different interests, whove separately become
    aware of the looming crisis caused by the peaking
    of world oil supplies
  • Weve come together to try to - -
  • Develop individual and collective strategies to
    cope with this crisis
  • Create awareness in the Portland community about
    Peak Oil
  • Influence policies of local government to help
    mitigate the crisis
  • Serve as a community resource as the crisis
    becomes more severe

3
What is this about?
Were here to talk about Peak Oil
  • What is it?
  • When will its impact be felt?
  • What does it mean for - -
  • Ourselves and our families?
  • Our community?
  • What can we do to prepare?

4
What do we hope to accomplish?
  • This training is intended to raise your awareness
    of Peak Oil. We hope to show you that - -
  • Fossil fuels will soon become less plentiful,
    less readily available and increasingly
    expensive
  • The coming decline in fossil fuel production will
    wreak havoc with our way of life and force all of
    us to make dramatic changes in how we live
  • How we respond, both individually and
    collectively, will determine the nature of our
    post-Peak quality of life, and possibly even
    whether we and our loved ones survive the crisis

5
What is Peak Oil?
  • The concept of Peak Oil was developed in the
    1950s by petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert
  • Its a mathematical model that seeks to predict
    the point at which maximum possible oil
    production will be reached by an individual
    field, a region, a country, or even the entire
    world
  • Hubbert discovered that oil production follows a
    bell-shaped curve (Hubberts Curve)
  • The first oil produced is always the easy stuff
    (think gusher)
  • As the low hanging fruit is gradually depleted,
    additional production becomes increasingly
    difficult and expensive
  • When approximately half of the total oil
    available has been produced, the point of maximum
    production is reached
  • Thereafter, production begins an inevitable
    decline - - the previous peak will never be
    exceeded

6
Does Hubberts Model Work?
  • Based on his model, in 1956 Hubbert predicted
    that oil production in the US lower 48 states
    would peak in the early 1970s
  • This prediction received nearly universal
    ridicule from oil industry and government
    experts, most of whom believed peak US production
    was many decades away
  • Hubbert was right US oil production peaked in
    1971, and has been steadily declining ever since

7
Now, The World is Nearing Peak
  • Leading researchers using Hubberts model are
    predicting a worldwide peak of fossil fuel
    production before 2010
  • Some experts believe Peak Oil will be this year
    or next

Source Post Carbon Institute
8
Were Not Running Out of Oil
  • Peak Oil means weve used up about half of
    natures bounty of fossil fuels
  • This sounds good however, the half weve used
    was the easy stuff to get - - the cheap oil
  • From the peak onward, every barrel will be harder
    and more expensive to produce, and, as a result,
    well produce less of it
  • Thats why non-conventional fossil fuels (like
    Canadian oil sands) are no answer - - theyre
    expensive and they require much more energy to
    produce than light crude
  • Eventually, itll take more energy to produce the
    remaining oil than the oil itself will generate
  • At that point, unless we have an energy
    alternative in place, the lights go out

9
Lights Out?
The New Yorker
10
Cant We Just Find Some More?
  • Its highly unlikely
  • Peak discovery typically precedes peak production
    by 25 to 30 years
  • World oil discovery peaked in the mid-1970s and
    has been declining ever since

Source Post Carbon Institute
11
The Consequences of Peak OilHow will oil
depletion impact our lives in the years ahead?
  • There is NO viable substitute for cheap fossil
    energy
  • Petroleum is much more energy dense than
    alternatives
  • Weve invested trillions in a petroleum-based
    transport infrastructure
  • Modern agriculture runs on fossil fuels
  • Our mass consumption economy cant function
    without abundant, cheap fossil energy

12
Energy Density vs. Alternatives
  • Petroleum is extremely energy dense
  • Energy output per unit is much higher than from
    any other source
  • Petroleum products are very convenient
  • Easy to transport and to store
  • Relatively safe to use
  • Very versatile
  • Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of
    petroleum is higher than alternatives
  • Marked decline from 1001 in the 40s, but still
    over 81
  • No combination of alternatives comes close to
    matching these advantages

13
Modern Transport Requires Petroleum
  • Gasoline and other transport fuels are energy
    dense
  • One gallon of gas contains about 36 kW hrs of
    energy, enough to power a small house for a week
  • Batteries have low energy density
  • Battery-powered flight is impractical
  • Battery-powered cars require electricity, mostly
    generated by fossil fuel or nuclear energy
  • Massive use of biodiesel or ethanol is
    impractical
  • Studies indicate that these fuels have an EROEI
    of
  • Growing feedstock to run the current US
    automotive fleet on ethanol would require all
    available farmland, and more

14
Agriculture Runs on Fossil Fuels
  • The green revolution was based on petroleum
  • Industrial agriculture uses about 50 times the
    energy inputs of traditional agriculture
  • Modern agriculture is fossil energy intensive
  • Nitrogen fertilizer is produced with natural gas
  • Pesticides and herbicides are synthesized from
    oil
  • Mechanized agriculture runs on petroleum
  • Farm equipment is powered by petroleum energy
  • Monocrop agriculture involves long-distance
    transport of seeds, inputs and crops
  • North American food travels an average of 1,300
    miles from farm to plate

15
Fossil-Fueled Mass Consumption
  • Without cheap, plentiful petroleum, globalized
    production will grind to a halt
  • The flood of cheap goods from China will become a
    trickle (Wal-Mart is toast)
  • The current US standard of living depends on
    global distribution of cheaply-produced goods
  • The end of this system will see a marked decline
    in the living standard of most Americans
  • The world financial system requires constant
    growth
  • Without growth, our debt-based fiat money system
    will implode
  • Constant growth depends on access to a
    continually-increasing supply of cheap energy

16
So, What Happens After We Peak?
  • Continual warfare for control of remaining
    resources
  • Iraq is probably just the beginning
  • Severe, long-term (permanent?) economic decline
  • A second Great Depression, but this one might
    never end
  • Societal breakdown
  • Collapse of the globalized economy leads to chaos
    - - mass unemployment, poverty, hunger
  • Dieoff
  • Famine mass starvation due to a huge decline in
    crop yields
  • Plague mass death from disease due to collapse
    of the modern medical system

17
Resource Wars
Of several types
  • Consuming nations vs. producing nations
  • US vs. Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, etc., etc.
  • Between consuming nations
  • US vs. China
  • Civil wars within producing nations
  • Columbia, Algeria, Afghanistan, West Africa
  • Asymmetrical warfare consuming nations vs.
    non-state entities in producing nations
  • Terrorism, at home and abroad

18
Economic and Societal Collapse
  • As the growth engine sputters out, our growth
    economy will begin to implode
  • A lower energy economy means lower productivity,
    as more human labor power is needed to do the
    same work
  • Reduced productivity leads to declining economic
    activity, less demand for goods and services
    depression
  • Collapse of the economy and infrastructure will
    trigger societal breakdown
  • Mass unemployment, with little hope of a return
    of prosperity, causes widespread anger and
    despair
  • Hunger and poverty lead to rampant crime and
    violence

19
Dieoff?
  • World population has increased from about 750
    million in 1750 to around 6.5 billion today
  • This exponential growth was made possible by the
    huge temporary expansion of the planets human
    carrying capacity, through massive consumption of
    non-renewable fossil fuels
  • Absent abundant fossil fuels,
  • most experts place Earths
  • human carrying capacity at
  • between 1 and 2 billion
  • Carrying capacity cannot be
  • exceeded forever
  • Sooner or later, nature takes care of the excess,
    one way or another

20
What About Alternatives to Oil?
  • Futuristic alternatives
  • Hydrogen
  • Fusion
  • Free energy
  • Non-renewable alternatives
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Nuclear
  • Methane hydrates
  • Renewable alternatives
  • Wind
  • Hydro
  • Geothermal
  • Solar
  • Biomass
  • Thermal depolymerization

21
Non-Renewable Alternatives
  • Natural gas
  • Unsuitable as a substitute for oil
  • North American production is nearly at peak
  • Importing from elsewhere requires liquefaction,
    which is expensive and dangerous
  • Gas isnt suited to powering transport
  • Gas cant supply the panoply of petrochemicals we
    get from oil
  • Coal
  • An inadequate substitute for oil
  • Much heavier than oil harder, more energy
    intensive to transport
  • Mining runs on oil as oil becomes expensive, so
    will coal
  • Coal is much more polluting than oil its use as
    a substitute for oil would greatly exacerbate
    global warming

22
Non-Renewable Alternatives (contd)
  • Nuclear
  • Unsuitable as a substitute for oil
  • Very expensive (costs of initial plant
    construction, fuel, safeguarding from terrorism,
    decommissioning, etc.)
  • Cannot produce plastics, pesticides or
    petrochemicals
  • Problem of disposal of radioactive waste hasnt
    been solved
  • Methane hydrates
  • Ice-like crystals that trap natural gas, mainly
    on the ocean floor
  • Unsuitable as a substitute for oil
  • Difficult to accumulate in large quantities
  • Actual level of reserves may be much smaller than
    once believed
  • Very expensive and dangerous to recover
  • Accidental release of large quantities of methane
    into the atmosphere could trigger catastrophic
    global climate change

23
Renewable Alternatives
  • Wind
  • Unrealistic as a substitute for oil
  • Not portable or storable, like oil
  • Cant produce petrochemicals, pesticides,
    plastics
  • Not suitable as energy source for transportation
  • Could be used to produce hydrogen however, this
    would require a multi-trillion dollar investment
    starting now
  • Solar/Hydro/Geothermal
  • All are unsuitable as substitutes for oil
  • Cant produce petrochemicals, pesticides,
    plastics
  • Not suitable as energy source for transportation
  • Subject to geographic and/or weather constraints
  • Much less energy dense than petroleum
  • To replicate the energy sold by an average gas
    station in a single day would require 84 square
    miles of solar panels
  • A solar energy system covering 20 of the US
    landmass would only supply about half of our
    current energy consumption

24
Renewable Alternatives (contd)
  • Biomass
  • Includes both direct burning of plant materials
    (wood, peat, etc.) as well as biofuels
    (biodiesel, ethanol, etc.)
  • An inadequate substitute for oil
  • Very low EROEI - - some types are actually energy
    sinks
  • Burning of biomass creates air pollution
  • Arable land in the US will be needed for growing
    food there is not nearly enough to feed us and
    support production of biofuels
  • Running our automotive fleet on ethanol would
    require nearly the entire continental US landmass
    for growing the feedstock - - thered be no land
    left over to house us, let alone to feed us
  • Thermal depolymerization (energy from waste)
  • An energy sink - - literally garbage in, garbage
    out!
  • The waste input, itself, was produced using
    fossil energy
  • As oil production declines, well have less waste
    to process

25
Futuristic Alternatives
  • Hydrogen
  • The so-called hydrogen economy is a myth it is
    unsuitable as a substitute for oil
  • Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy
    source producing it requires substantial energy
    inputs
  • Whatever the source of the energy input (fossil
    fuel, wind, hydro, etc.), the process involves a
    net loss of energy
  • Massive fossil fuel inputs are still required to
    build the hydrogen production facilities as well
    as the hydrogen-powered vehicles
  • It is much less energy dense than oil
  • One 40-ton tanker would supply only 40
    hydrogen-powered cars
  • Fusion, cold fusion and free energy
  • Unrealistic as a substitute for oil
  • Most of these schemes appear to violate the First
    Law of Thermodynamics (energy cannot be created
    or destroyed)
  • No functional prototypes currently exist
  • Even if theoretically possible (as with fusion),
    tremendous practical difficulties put large-scale
    use far into the future (if ever)
  • Fusion requires reactor temperatures of approx.
    360 million ºF no material or process has been
    developed which can contain such temperatures

26
So, What Will the Future Hold?
  • In his recent book Powerdown, Peak Oil researcher
    Richard Heinberg outlines four possible options
    for our post-peak future
  • Last one standing
  • Powerdown
  • Waiting for the magic elixir
  • Building lifeboats

27
Last One StandingThe Path of Competition for
Remaining Resources
  • This option envisions continuous activity by
    elites to commandeer remaining resources
  • This appears to be the current strategy of US
    elites
  • If this option is allowed to play out, the next
    decades will likely be characterized by
  • Continuous warfare abroad
  • Increasing repression at home
  • Severe economic crises
  • Environmental catastrophe

28
PowerdownThe Path of Cooperation, Conservation,
and Sharing
  • This option envisions a massive worldwide effort,
    with tremendous economic sacrifice, to
  • Reduce per-capita resource usage in rich
    countries
  • Develop alternative energy sources
  • Distribute resources more equitably
  • Humanely but systematically reduce the size of
  • human population over time
  • Under this option, the next decades would be
    focused on
  • Economic re-localization (especially food,
    transport, housing)
  • Conservation and de-centralized production of
    energy
  • Sustainable practices and increased use of
    permaculture

29
Waiting for the Magic ElixirThe Path of
Wishful Thinking, False Hopes, and Denial
  • Understandably, most people hope for a relatively
    painless way out of this crisis
  • Dont worry, theyll find more oil.
  • Dont worry, theyll come up with some new
    technology.
  • Dont worry, theyll think of something, like
    they always do!
  • Dont worry, be happy!

Unfortunately, in this case, such wishful
thinking is not just counter-productive its
downright dangerous It distracts us from the hard
work well need to do if were to avert violent
competition and societal collapse
30
Building LifeboatsThe Path of Community
Solidarity and Preservation
  • This option begins with the assumption that
  • Industrial civilization cannot be salvaged in
    anything like its present form
  • We are even now living through the early stages
    of disintegration
  • Given this, it makes sense for at least some of
    us to devote our energies to
  • Preservation of the most worthwhile cultural
    achievements of the past few centuries
  • Providing resources to help ourselves and others
    weather the storms in the decades ahead

31
OK, Things Look Pretty GrimIs There Anything We
Can Do?
  • Yes! Each one of us can (and should) take the
    following steps to prepare for Peak Oil
  • Educate ourselves and our friends and loved ones
    about Peak Oil and what it means
  • Assess our level of energy dependence and the
    practical coping skills we currently possess
  • Then Act to
  • develop a plan for ourselves and our families
  • learn the skills well need to survive
  • raise Peak Oil awareness in local organizations,
    in our neighborhoods, and in our community
  • strengthen communal ties with our fellow citizens

32
Resolve to Educate Yourself
  • Learn more about the following inter-related
    issues
  • Peak Oil and the end of cheap energy
  • Our growth and debt-based financial and fiat
    currency system
  • Geopolitics in particular, our countrys role in
    the world
  • Global climate change and environmental
    degradation
  • Ecological carrying capacity and why societies
    collapse
  • Learn about low-energy, sustainable lifestyle
    strategies
  • Contemporary sustainable living ideas and
    practices, such as permaculture, the ecovillage
    movement, and the primitive technology
    movement
  • Historical examples of societies coping with
    economic hardship and resource scarcity
  • The Great Depression
  • The World War II Victory Garden movement
  • The experience of Cuba in the special period of
    the 1990s, following the fall of the Soviet Union

33
Assess Your Energy Dependence
  • How large a home do you really need?
  • The average house in 1950 1000 sq. ft. today
    2200 sq. ft.
  • How energy efficient is your home?
  • Consider your appliances, lighting, windows,
    insulation, water heater, cooling and more
  • How car-dependent are you?
  • Could you use public transport, use a bicycle, or
    walk to work, to shop and for other activities?
  • How energy intensive is the food you eat?
  • Try to eat lower on the food chain (less meat!)
  • Support local sustainable agriculture
    participate in the Community Supported
    Agriculture (CSA) program

34
Assess Your Practical Skills
  • Do you have necessary skills for a low energy
    future?
  • Can you garden?
  • Could you grow some or all of the food you and
    your family need if you had to?
  • Do you have household skills like sewing,
    knitting, cooking, canning?
  • Do you have medical or veterinary skills?
    Midwifery training or experience? Do you have
    knowledge of herbal medicines? Have you had
    training in first aid?
  • Do you have carpentry or artisanal skills? Could
    you design and construct shelter? Repair
    agricultural tools?
  • These (and other) skills may be vital to the
    survival of you and your family in the years
    ahead

35
Act To Prepare for Peak Oil
  • Develop a plan for you and your family
  • Reduce your energy consumption
  • Learn the skills you will need
  • Strive to develop a sustainable, self-reliant
    communal lifestyle in place of an isolated,
    consumerist, unsustainable one
  • Work within your community
  • Join up with others who are aware and involved on
    this issue
  • Educate your friends, neighbors, and loved ones
  • Resolve to act as a resource for others in the
    years ahead

36
A Vision of Post-Fossil Fuel Living
Decentralized Communal
Permacultural Low energy
37
For More Info on Peak Oil
  • Books
  • Overshoot by William Catton
  • High Noon For Natural Gas by Julian Darley
  • Hubberts Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes
  • Collapse by Jared Diamond
  • A Century or War by F. William Engdahl
  • The Partys Over by Richard Heinberg
  • Powerdown by Richard Heinberg
  • The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler
  • The Oil Age is Over by Matt Savinar

38
For More Info on Peak Oil (contd)
  • Websites
  • www.culturechange.org
  • www.dieoff.org
  • www.energybulletin.net
  • www.globalpublicmedia.com
  • www.hubbertpeak.com
  • www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
  • www.museletter.com
  • www.odac-info.org
  • www.peakoil.net
  • www.peakoil.com
  • www.postcarbon.org

39
Thank You!
  • Presented by
  • The Portland Peak Oil group
  • www.portlandpeakoil.org
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com