SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects

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SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects
Science Advisory Committee Meeting 13 June 2007
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Extension of RA to Applications Partnership with
NWS/MIA
Direct Outcome of the Joint NAS SOO/SPoRT Workshop
SPoRT and Pablo Santos (SOO/MIA) developed a plan
to evaluate and then transition the MODIS SST
composites within WRF for use in Miamis
operational forecasts
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Methodology for MIA Modeling

• Project designed to optimize and share
  computational resourcesa direct outcome of the
  2006 workshop
• 27 h WRF-NMM simulations have been run four times
  daily since February 2007
• 4 km resolution 31 vertical levels
• MIA uses LAPS for initialization
• SPoRT parallel runs use the 2 km MODIS SST
  composites, while Miamis forecasts use the 1/12
  RTG SST analyses
• 27 h forecast initialized daily at 03, 09, 15,
  and 21 UTC.

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Future Plans

• Determine the impact of MODIS SSTs (research
  perspective)
• Verify forecasts against surface and
  precipitation observations
• Perform comparison of forecasts similar to May
  2004 study period to show general impact
• Transition the capability to ingest the MODIS SST
  composites to Miami WFO
• Integrate LIS soil moisture representation into
  system

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What is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed?
Both a facility and an organization - The
facility is located on the second floor of the
new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational
forecasting areas. - An organization that
supports and promotes collaborative research
activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the
broader meteorological community.
Two Main Program Areas
Experimental Warning Program
Experimental Forecast Program
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Hazardous Weather Testbed Benefits

• The close working relationship between
  operational and research meteorologists has
  fostered
• Increased appreciation by Research Meteorologists
  of forecaster insights, and operational
  constraints and requirements
• Education of Operational Meteorologists about NWP
  models, other research and diagnostic tools, and
  application of scientific knowledge to severe
  weather forecasting
• Accelerated transfer of useful new technologies,
  products and diagnostic / prediction tools from
  research to operations

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Proposed HWT Activities Spring Program 2007

• Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program
• First year of multi-year effort (2007-2009)
• Contributing Partners SPC, NSSL, CAPS, EMC,
  NCAR, OUN (unique diversity of backgrounds and
  expertise)
• Scientific Objectives
• Improve high resolution WRF models
• Further explore impacts of various physics (PBL,
  microphysics, etc.) on high-res WRF forecasts
• Pre-convective environment, PBL sounding
  structure, and convective storms
• Continue investigating impact of resolution on
  WRF simulation of stormscale structures (e.g.,
  supercells, bow echoes, etc.)

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Proposed HWT Activities Spring Program 2007

• Scientific Objectives (contd)
• Begin to explore development and utility of a
  daily high resolution convection-allowing 10
  member WRF ensemble in short-term (12-30h)
  prediction of severe convection
• Investigate IC versus physics spread in
  convection-allowing ensemble
• Explore understanding of physics on ensemble
  performance
• Environment convective initiation, intensity and
  mode
• Compare to higher resolution deterministic WRF
• 2 km WRF (CAPS) and 3 km WRF (NCAR)
• Begin developing interrogation tools to extract
  ensemble-based information for a variety of
  hazardous weather events

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Collaboration With SPoRT.