False HOPE Implications of Expansive Eligibility Requirements for the Tennessee Education Lottery Sc

1
False HOPE? Implications of Expansive
Eligibility Requirements for the Tennessee
Education Lottery Scholarship Program SFARN
Conference June 21, 2007 David Wright Rob
Anderson
2
Statutory Charge

• provide assistance to the general assembly and
  to the Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation
  (TSAC) by researching and analyzing data
  concerning the scholarship and grant programs
  created under this part, including, but not
  limited to, student success and scholarship
  retention. THEC shall report its findings
  annually to the education committee of the senate
  and the education committee of the house of
  representatives before the second Tuesday in
  January.

3
Lottery ScholarshipRecent THEC Activities

• Annual report addressing student success and
  scholarship retention
• January 25 THEC appoints committee for further
  study, chaired by Shelby County Mayor Wharton
• Additional data analysis
• Best practices (institutional and state,
  secondary and postsecondary)
• Recommendations by end of March
• Fiscal/policy analysis for legislative proposals
• Ongoing data collection and analysis

4
Context and Purpose of Study

• Much debate regarding the academic requirements
  for scholarship recipients
• Bipartisan alliance
• To examine the impact of the more expansive
  eligibility criteria being applied to Tennessees
  lottery scholarship program.

5
Award Amounts/Criteria
6
Scholarship Recipients by Gender(All Award
Types)
7
Scholarship Recipients by Race/Ethnicity(All
Award Types)
8
Scholarship Recipients by Sector(All Award
Types)
9
Scholarship Recipients by Family Income(All
Award Types)
10
First-time Freshmen Scholarship Retention Rates
by Family Income Fall 2005 to Fall 2006
11
Fall 2005 TELS First-Time Freshmen Who Lost
Scholarship But Remained Enrolled Fall 2006, by
Family Income
12
Research Questions

• How do student profiles differ based on method of
  qualification?
• How do scholarship and postsecondary retention
  rates differ based on method of qualification?
• What factors beyond academic preparation are
  predictive of scholarship and postsecondary
  retention?

13
Academic PreparationQualification Standards Met
by Fall 2005 TELS First-Time Freshmen
14
Scholarship Retention Rates
Fall 2005 TELS First-Time Freshmen who
Retained Award in Fall 2006, by Academic
Qualifications Met
15
Academic Preparation
Qualification Standards Met by Fall 2005
First-Time Freshman TELS Recipients Caucasian
Students
16
Scholarship Retention Rates
Fall 2005 TELS First-Time Freshmen
Retaining Scholarship in Fall 2006 Caucasian
Students
17
Academic Preparation
Qualification Standards Met by Fall 2005
First-Time Freshman TELS Recipients African
American Students
18
Scholarship Retention Rates
Fall 2005 TELS First-Time Freshmen
Retaining Scholarship in Fall 2006 African
American Students
19
High School GPA by Method of Qualification
20
ACT Score by Method of Qualification
21
Method of Qualification by Income Quintile
22
Scholarship Retention Based on Method of Lottery
Scholarship Qualification
23
Postsecondary Retention Based on Method of
Lottery Scholarship Qualification
24
Methods and Data

• Cohort of Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship
  recipients.
• Total of 17,160 first time freshmen in fall 2005.
• Average HSGPA 3.36
• Average ACT 22.5 (state average 20.5)
• Race 10 African American (state average is
  19)

25
Methods and Data

• Two logistic regression models
• Outcome Maintain lottery scholarship eligibility
  in year-2
• Outcome For scholarship forfeiters, maintain
  postsecondary enrollment in year-2
• Independent variables
• High school GPA
• ACT score
• Gender
• Race
• Parents AGI

26
Impact on Lottery Scholarship Retention (Year-2)
plt.001 plt.01 plt.05 Race Black1 Gender
Male1
27
Impact on Continual Enrollment by Scholarship
Forfeiters
plt.001 plt.01 plt.05 Income
Quintile1lowest income African American1
Male1
28
Future Research

• School choice
• Student debt
• Brain drain

29
THEC Resources
David Wright David.L.Wright_at_state.tn.us (615)
532-3862
Rob Anderson Robert.Anderson_at_state.tn.us (615)
532-8017
www.state.tn.us/thec