A Road Map to Peacemaking on the Korean Peninsula

1

A Road Map to Peacemaking on the Korean
Peninsula S. J. Chang, Ph.D. Professor of
Finance College of Business Illinois State
University November 12, 2003
2
Disclaimer A Road Map to Peacemaking on the
Korean Peninsula misleading. Just to share
some casual, informal, and non-analytic
observations on the issue from a concerned
Korean-Americans standpoint. http//lilt.ilstu.
edu/sjchang/isu-nk.ppt
3
Korea(s) at a Glance
A small country KP is about the size of
Minnesota, with 234770m pop. An old country
Year 2003 Year 4336 in Korean history A very
homogeneous country One race, language, history,
culture, A long-forgotten country Remote,
peripheral, isolated in world history A
never-a-dull-moment country In recent history
--- Japanese Occupation, 38th
Parallel, Korean War, Kim Il-sung in NK,
Emergence of SK (88 Olympics, Huyndai cars,
Samsung cell phones), NK Nuclear Crisis, and N-S
economic contrast ?
4

• Extreme Contrast between NK and SK Economy
• SK Worlds 13th largest economy, OECD member,
  Per-capita income of 10,000, Hi-tech/modernized
  market economy,
• NK One of the poorest, 800 per-capita income,
  Tightly controlled economy with 30 agriculture
  and 31 military, 1/28 of South, on the brink
  of economic collapse
• ? The current nuclear crisis masks NKs economic
  implosion. ? The time bomb is ticking?!
• So, human tragedy continues
• Millions of NK people have reportedly died of
  starvation.
• Tens of thousands of people have been fleeing NK
  to seek a shelter, refuge, or asylum elsewhere.

5

• Human tragedy continues
• Millions of Koreans remain separated since the
  division. 122,000 SK people have
  applied for family reunions, but 20,000 of them
  have already died without fulfilling dream.

Tearful Family Reunion
What keeps such homogeneous Korea divided and
separated?
6
What makes and keeps such homogeneous Korea
divided and separated? Fundamentally different
ideology Basic regime and system
differences, stark contrasts in policy choices
and leadership types, North and South Koreas
clearly demonstrate how such factors can
determine the fate of a country and the
well-being of its people. So, today
7
Some 20 miles north of Seoul, SK
almost two million troops are stationed along the
DMZ, while NK keeps firm grip on its ideology
8
NK Military Poster
NK Soldiers on Parade
NKs Arirang Festival
NK Guard at Panmunjom
9
World's tallest flagpole dominates the North
Korean side of the DMZ.
North Korean Infiltration Tunnel 3
In the meantime,
10
Seoul, 1893
11
Seoul, 2003
Apparently (unbeknownst to some people), many
things have happened on the Korean Peninsula over
the years
12
Chronology of Major Events on the Korean
Peninsula 1945 Aug. 9 KP divided into N and S
along the 38th parallel. 1948 Aug. 15
Foundation of the Republic of Korea (SK). 1950
June 25 Korean War breaks out. 1953 July 27
Armistice signed. 1961 May 16 Military coup in
SK. 1968 Jan. 21 NK infiltration into Seoul
area USS Pueblo kidnapped. 1974 Nov. 15
Norths first underground infiltration tunnel
discovered. 1985 Sept. 20 First family
reunions. 1988 Sept. 10 Seoul hosts Summer
Olympics. 1991 Sept. 17 South and North
simultaneously admitted to the UN. 1994 July 9
Kim Il-sung dies. 2000 June 15 First
inter-Korean summit. 2002 Oct. 4 N admits
its nuke weapons program. Confrontation continued.
13

• Confrontation between North and South
• Since the armistice North and South have engaged
  in countless battles, fightings and scuffles.
  And Norths belligerency continues.
• Major Provocations by North Korea
• Feb. 1958 Kidnapped a SKorean commercial plane.
• Jan. 1968 A 30-member commando squad infiltrated
  into the SK presidential house area.
  Kidnapped USS Pueblo in the East Sea.
• Oct. 1968 Commando squads infiltrated into the
  east coast area of SK.
• Apr. 1969 Gunned down US reconnaissance plane
  EC-121.
• Dec. 1969 Kidnapped 51 people aboard Korean
  Airlines YS-11.
• June 1970 Botched bombing of the National
  Cemetery in Seoul.
• Aug. 1974 Attempted to assassinate President Park
  (First Lady killed).

14
NKs Major Provocations contd Nov. 1974 The
first underground infiltration tunnel
discovered. Aug. 1976 30 N soldiers wielded axes
in Truce Village (2 US GIs killed). Aug.
1981 Missile-attacked US reconnaissance plane
SR-71. Oct. 1983 Killed 17 of SK presidential
entourage in Rangoon. Oct. 1987 Gunned down a SK
fishing vessel drowning 11 people. Nov.
1987 Bombed a Korean Airlines plane killing all
115 aboard. Mar. 1990 Underground infiltration
tunnel 4 discovered. Oct. 1995 Armed N agents
infiltrated into the southwestern part of
SK. Sep. 1996 26 Armed N agents infiltrated by a
submarine. Jun. 1998 A NK submarine infiltrated
(all 9 aboard killed themselves). All
told, over 431,000 violations committed by NK so
far --- military provocations, terror attacks,
assassinations, arsons, kidnappings, sabotages,
, and now, nuke violations.
15
Nuclear Crisis Jan. 2002 Bush brands NK, Iran,
and Iraq an axis of evil. Oct. 2002 NK admits
that it has a nuclear weapons program in
violation of the 1994 agreement. Nov. 2002 U.S.
suspends fuel oil shipments to NK. Dec. 2002 NK
removes seals and cameras from Yongbyon
nuclear complex, and expels IAEA
monitors. Jan. 2003 NK announces it will withdraw
from the NPT (and subsequently it does in
April). Feb. 2003 IAEA declares NK in violation
of the NPT and refers the crisis to the UN
Security Council. Apr. 2003 US, NK, and China
meet for 3-way talks. Jun. 2003 NK says it has
completed reprocessing 8,000 spent nuclear fuel
rods for more nuclear bombs.
16
July 2003 NK agrees to six-way talks with China,
Japan, Russia, SK, and the U.S. Aug. 2003 The
6-nation talks in Beijing end in acrimony with
NK insisting on a non-aggression pact with the
US. Oct. 2, 2003 NK says it's making nuke bombs
(for the 3rd time). Oct. 16, 2003 NK says it will
display its nuclear deterrent force (indication
that it intends to test a nuclear bomb). Oct.
20, 2003 US and SK agree to promote a plan of
5-nation written security assurances for NK.
Oct. 25, 2003 In a sudden shift, NK says it
would consider the 5-nation written assurance
offer. Oct. 30, 2003 NK agrees that the 6-way
talks should continue. Nov. 4, 2003 US will
reportedly suspend NKs LWR project. So, is the
glass empty, half empty, or half full?
17
The Sun Also Rises on the Korean
Peninsula? Sunshine Policy, Nobel Peace Prize,
and goodwill gestures --- economic cooperation,
family reunions, tourism, humanitarian aids,
sports and cultural exchanges, scholarly
interactions, Aug. 1992 SK establishes a formal
diplomatic tie with China. Jul. 1994 Kim Il-sung
dies. Mar. 1995 KEDO organized. Jun. 1996 NK
economic liberalization begins (Rajin-Sunbong
EFTZ). Jun. 1998 Chung Ju-yung leads a procession
of 500 cattle to Pyang. Nov. 1998 First SK
tourist group travels to Mt Kumgang by sea. Jun.
2000 First Inter-Korean Summit. July 2002 Big
Bang NK begins testing a market economy -
Raised prices, wages, exchange rates, cut
government subsidies,
18
The Sun Also Rises (contd) Sep. 2002 NK sends
its cheerleading squad to Pusan Asian Games
(repeats in summer 2003 for the Universiad
held in SK). Aug. 2003 Inter-Korean trade amounts
to 407 mil. for the first 8 months (45
increase from a year earlier). Sep. 2003 First
Tour of Pyongyang by SK people (by air). Oct.
2003 N and S light a torch at Mt. Paekdu in NK to
signal the beginning of an inter-Korean sports
festival on Cheju Island. 800 SK people travel
to Pyang (by bus) to participate in
opening of a gym named after Chung. Dec.
2003 Cross-border roads on the east and west
coasts will open. May 2004 A Hyundai-sponsored
large industrial park will open in Kaesung, NK
(includes a 36-hole golf course). Hyundai will
also pursue projects in electricity,
communication, railroads, airports, dams, and
casinos in NK. NK will soon send its circus
troupes to SK and have exhibitions of its
national treasures in SK. N and S continue to
exchange scholarly activities. N and S also
seriously consider sending a unified Team Korea
to the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
19
Increased Contacts between N and S During
August 2003, Number of visits to NK by SK
1,771 (118 YoY) 16 family reunion
contacts 488 economic exchanges 150
social and cultural exchanges 127 tourism
visits 211 LWR project visits 345
humanitarian aid contacts 434 for other
purposes Number of Mt. Kumgang tourists
7,921 in 16 trips Inter-Korean trade 65.6
mil. in 222 items (66 YoY) S ? N 39 mil.
in 168 items N ? S 26.6 mil. in 79
items Humanitarian aids to NK 7,272,589 by
18 organizations Since the early 90s there have
been 9 rounds of family reunions, 12 rounds of
ministerial talks, 7 rounds of Inter-Korean
Economic Cooperation Committee meetings, 1
summit, ? A road map is being drawn? What
kind of road map?
20
(No Transcript)
21

• Road Map?
• Cautiously optimistic about the progress in the
  midst of confusion, inconsistency, extremism, and
  unpredictability displayed by both sides.
• Regional complexity Geo-politically the KP is
  right in the middle where the Big Fours
  political, economic, and strategic aims
  intersect.
• NK will most likely try to consolidate unity of
  the regime around Kim Jong-il.
• But they need both rice and oil. With a
  devastated economy with 30 agriculture and 31
  military, the only way to avoid a total collapse
  is military downsizing?! (So, they may think
  nuke is a better, cheaper substitute for oil. a
  big concern)

22

• 2003 Centennial anniversary of Korean
  Immigration to the U.S. and the 50th anniversary
  of the US-SK alliance.
• The U.S.-SK alliance has successfully deterred
  NK, while maintaining stability on the Peninsula
  for over 50 years.
• Core policies of the respective leaderships have
  challenged the U.S.-SK relationship. Debate
  about the presence of US troops in SK ( It is
  estimated that in the absence of the U.S. forces
  on the Peninsula SKs defense budget would
  increase by 200 bil.).
• China's Role? Its brokering multilateral talks
  may indicate a shift from a U.S.-led stability to
  the beginning of a transition with China taking a
  bigger role? (In late October Chinas top leader
  met with NK Kim Jong-il, who expressed agreement
  to re-convene 6-nation talks)

23

• Road Map to Peacemaking on the Korean Peninsula
• I think its important for the two Koreas to
  continue and increase exchanges, visits, and
  contacts --- sports teams, tourist groups,
  cheerleaders, circus troupes, exhibitions,
  scholars, artists, performers, etc.
• First and foremost, they should try to
  understand each other better. They have been
  separated and isolated from each other for so
  long that a huge gap has opened up in between,
  not only politically and economically, but also
  socially, culturally, and even linguistically. ?
  So, they need exposure to one another!
• I hope the exchanges and exposures will broaden
  their mutual understanding and eventually
  contribute to reconciliation.
• N should downsize its military, promote civilian
  economy, and go for broader opening and
  liberalization for foreign investment.

24

• Also, the future of the NK economy will depend
  on how they will proceed with inter-Korean
  economic cooperation. The on-going inter-Korean
  economic projects definitely have a strong
  positive impact on the Norths economy. So, they
  should maintain this momentum.
• To maintain that momentum NK should assure not
  only SK but also the international community that
  they have no intent of aggression or building up
  nuclear weaponry.
• The Big Four and others? Need cooperation and
  coordination to keep NK at the negotiation table
  and push to de-nuclearization. Right now NK is
  responding to the proposal of written
  non-aggression assurances. ? Maintain the
  momentum.
• 3 Is Internal Changes, N-S Interaction, Intl
  Cooperation
• What about you, me, us? What can we do to help?
• Well, just keep buying Hyundai and Kia cars ?
  

25
http//lilt.ilstu.edu/sjchang/isu-nk.ppt