The Relation Between Juvenile Salmon Hydrosystem survival and Adult returns Preliminary Results Fish

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The Relation Between Juvenile Salmon Hydro-system
survival and Adult returnsPreliminary
ResultsFish Passage CenterJerry McCannJack
TuomikoskiBrandon Chockley
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Changing relationship between reach survival and
SAR

• Past analyses of juvenile Reach survival have
  emphasized the unknown importance to adult
  return
• Recently NOAA has shown no statistically
  signficant relation between juvenile survival
  and adult return (Smith and Muir ppt to NPCC
  2007)emphasizing instead the relative importance
  of ocean conditions on SARs (Williams and
  Scheuerell 2005)
• (Schaller and Petrosky 2007), used ocean indices
  to explain variability in S3 and SAR as well as
  common year effect. In another analysis these
  authors also showed a relation between SAR and
  WTT at out-migration as surrogate for inriver
  survival under different ocean productivity
  levels (Schaller personal comm).

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FPC approach to juvenile survival vs SAR

• Characterized relative ocean productivity/conditio
  n for the year of ocean entry for juvenile Snake
  River yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead
• Estimated reach survivals and compared to adult
  returns under different levels of ocean
  productivity/conditions

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Ocean Indices

• Combination of indices described and used by
  Williams and Scheuerell (2005), Schaller and
  Petrosky (2007 unpublished)
• April upwelling
• -Monthly upwelling indices as measured at
  Lat. 45N, 125 W (Near Columbia mouth). Units are
  cubic meters/second/100 meters of coastline. NOAA
  Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory at the
  following link www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/mo
  deled/indices/upwelling/upwelling.html
• May PDO
• -The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index
  is defined as the leading principal component of
  North Pacific monthly sea surface temperature
  variability (poleward of 20N for the 1900-93
  period) http//jisao.washington.edu/pdo/. (Joint
  Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and
  Ocean)
• September PDO
• October upwelling

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Regime Shift

• Limited years considered in ocean data set to
  time period after regime shift in 1976-77
  identified by Hare and Mantua 2000

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Developed ranking system to categorize relative
ocean productivity/condition by year

• Each index was
• divided into thirds
• over 30 year span
• Each third of data
• was used as a
• category to score
• ocean year

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Summarizing the logic used to classify each year
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Example of categorization method

• 1999 categorized as good 3-rank good (3),
  1-rank mod. (2)

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Results of rankings

• Years listed would be associated
  with year of juvenile salmon outmigration

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Reach Survival and SAR

• Estimated LGR to Bonneville and LGR to McNary
  Reach Survival from 1998 to 2005
• Divided each year into 4-two week blocks based on
  passage timing at LGR
• Dates at LGR 4/8 to 4/21, 4/22 to 5/5,
• 5/6 to 5/19, 5/20 to 6/2
• Estimated SAR based on each two-week interval
  each year

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Juvenile Reach Survival

• CJS method, with addition of LGS detections of
  fish undetected at LGR added based on travel time
  LGR to LGS
• S1 (m2z2(R2/r2))/R1
• S1 Survival LGR to LGS
• R1 fish released or detected at
  LGR
• m2 fish detected at LGS
• z2 detects of fish not detected
  at LGS
• R2 fish released at LGS, either
  having been detected at LGR or first time
  detects at LGS
• r2 subsequent detections of fish
  released at LGS
• This greatly increased sample sizes to provide
  better precision in reach survivals as well as
  greater likelihood of getting estimates of
  juvenile survival in 2-week blocks

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Estimate of SAR

• Calculated smolt to adult returns from LGR to LGR
• Adjusted initial number of fish detected at LGR
  to account for transport removals at LGS and LMN
  and for additional first-time detects at LGS (R2
  from example)
• Used method of calculating LGR equivalents
  described in CSS 10 year report (Schaller et al
  2007)

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Starting juvenile population at LGR

• LGS Releases expressed in LGR equivalents
• R2 R2x11 R2x01 - t2
• S1 LGR to LGS survival
• R2lgr-equiv R2/S1
• LMN removals expressed in LGR equivalents
• t3/S1S2
• McNary removals expressed in LGR equivalents
• t4/S1S2S3
• Lower Granite Starting Juvenile population
• LGRPop R1 R2/S1
  t3/S1S2 t4/S1S2S3

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LGR to LGR SAR

• Adult returns were counted detections at LGR dam
• SAR LGRAR/LGRpop
• Jack returns were not included in analysis

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Results for Yearling Chinook - LGR to BON vs SAR
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Results for Yearling Chinook - LGR to McN vs SAR
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Results for Steelhead LGR to BON vs SAR
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Results for Steelhead LGR to McN vs SAR
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Conclusions

• Results show strong relation between in-river
  survival and adult returns at different ocean
  productivity/conditions levels
• Next step assign in-river environmental
  variables to reach survival groups (such as FTT,
  WTT, Spill Pct, Temperature) and analyze in-river
  effects on SARs at various levels of ocean
  productivity/conditions

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References

• Hare, S.R. and N.J. Mantua. 2000. Empirical
  Evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977
  and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47103-145.
• Schaller, H.A., and C.E. Petrosky. 2007.
  Assessing Hydrosystem Influence on Delayed
  Mortality of Snake River Stream-type Chinook
  Salmon. N. Amer. Jour. Fish. Man. 27(3)810-824.
• Schaller, H.A., P. Wilson, S. Haeseker, C.
  Petrosky, E. Tinus, T. Dalton, R. Woodin, E.
  Weber, N. Bouwes, T. Berggren, J. McCann, S.
  Rassk, H. Franzoni, and P. McHugh. 2007.
  COMPARATIVE SURVIVAL STUDY (CSS) of PIT-Tagged
  Spring/Summer Chinook and Steelhead In the
  Columbia River Basin, Ten-year Retrospective
  Summary Report, BPA Contract s 25634, 25264,
  20620, 25247.
• Scheuerell, M.D., and J.G. Williams. 2005.
  Forecasting climate-induced changes in the
  survival of Snake River spring\summer Chinook
  salmon. Fisheries Oceanography 14(6)448-457.