Title: APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 14 Feb 2011
1 Technical Analysis14 FEB 2011 Market commentary
2 APF Trading
9 Battery Road
12F Straits Trading Building
3 SP 500 INDEX 4 SP 500 INDEX
Bull trend is intact
Index stayed well above the Tenkan Sen and has not touched Kijun Sen since Oct 2010
From Nov 2010 til now Tenken Sen stayed above Kijun Sen since the last Tenken Sen/Kijun Sen crossover
Chikou Span is above index
The current Kumo is thin but thickening
5 SP 500 INDEX
Notice how the Senkou Span A Senkou Span B (Kumo) Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen all show a rough 45 deg upslope
Index broke the TD Sequential Risk Level at 1257.9801 5 weeks ago on a qualified basis (represented by a solid line) while TD Setup is in early count
Expect a higher chance of a completion of TD Sequential Countdown
6 SP 500 INDEX
Last weeks TD Setup perfection suggests a 1-4 period of correction
High probability of a 1-4 weeks correction which would bring the index level closer to Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen before continuing the bull trend.
7 DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX 8 DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX the index is well in a bull trend.
Dow Jones Index was well supported by a thick Kumo from Jun 2010 to Oct 2010 rallying for another few months now
Chikou Span is well above prices with the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen and index closed above the Tenken Sen for 21 weeks now
Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen angles upwards
Index is well in a bull trend
9 DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX the index is well in a bull trend.
Thin Kumo ahead
Weak region of support
With the index far above the Kumo we are concerned but not placing a high priority to the thin Kumo
First line of defence really is still the Tenkan Sen (Magenta Line) and next the Kijun Sen (Yellow Line)
Current TD Setup had broken up of the TD Sequential Risk Level at 11550.6396
10 DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX the index is well in a bull trend.
This happened early in the count of TD Setup. There is a good chance this sell countdown would be completed
The recent perfected TD sell setup might push the index into a 1-4 bar correction
We expect the index to maintain a bull trend with high probability of a short term correction (1-4 weeks)
11 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 12 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
NASDAQs curent bull trend is intact with prices staying well above the Kijun Sen for 20 weeks now
Chikou Span is above prices
The Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen as well as the Kumo all angle upwards
Bull trend is still in play
Watch for a TD Sequential Countdown completion in coming months
First line of defence is the support at Tenkan Sen
13 HANG SENG INDEX 14 HANG SENG INDEX
Hang Seng Index is stuck between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen
Otherwise Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen Chikou Span above index and index is trading above support region of Kumo
Note how the Tenken Sen Kijun Sen and Kumo are in a flat horizontal zone
We expect Hang Seng to trade sideways with first line of support at Kijun Sen (22680.4297). The thin Kumo weeks ahead might not be sufficient support should more bearish signs show up
15 NIKKEI 225 16 NIKKEI 225
Chikou is above prices
Following the Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish crossover on weak resistance (thin Kumo) Dec 2010 prices stayed above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. Prices also stayed above the Kumo
While these are bullish signs we are cautious due to the structure of the Kumo forming
The Nikkei has been stuck in a trading range for close to 2 years now
Notice how the Kumo twists belly up and belly down while the index just got stuck in the range
The Senkou Span B is flat for months
The TD Sequential Risk Level (11390.7402) is expected to be the resistance level to watch for
We expect more sideway action in coming months for the Nikkei 225
17 SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 18 SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE
Shanghai Index is drifting in the cloud with no clear directions at the moment
Kumo gets thinner index action is happening inside the Kumo
Wait for clearer gloomy or clear blue skies scenario before getting more excited
A week ago index was stuck inside the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. There was a medium strength bearish crossover but the Chikou Span was above prices.
Sideway trading expected to be the path of least resistance. We will get too excited over the Shanghai Index until some further price action takes place.
19 KOSPI INDEX 20 KOSPI INDEX
Index closed significantly below Tenkan Sen last week
Chikou Span has been above prices for months Tenkan Sen rising steadily above Kijun Sen. The Kumo is also thickening recently providing strong support.
Do watch the flat Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B. The next line of defence is the Kijun Sen at 1920.13.
TD Sequential Completion suggest market exhaustion. Index failed to break above the TD Risk Level on a qualified basis.
Overall bull trend intact with a possibility of a pullback.
21 Astra International 22 Astra International
Astra International completed TD Sequential Sell Countdown in Oct 2010 and prices started coming off dropping below the Tenkan Sen.
Currently the Tenkan Sen had crossed below the Kijun Sen producing a weak bearish crossover with the Kumo providing good support.
Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are flat currently. This is aligned to the fact that prices would hit into the Kumo in coming weeks providing good support.
Monitor the price development in coming weeks. A bounce off the Kumo resulting in a Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish crossover would be a strong bullish crossover.
23 GENTING SINGAPORE 24 GENTING SINGAPORE
Genting SP has been one of our favourite stock commentary pieces of late
We mentioned weeks back how prices are failing to break above the TD Sequential Risk Level in a qualified basis aligning with the high probability of a convergence of prices to the Kijun Sen.
Currently we still maintain that view as prices develop. The rubber band effect would bring prices close to Kijun Sen. The Kumo is looking to provide good support for the stock. Watch for a rebound off the Kijun Sen. If that happens prices would re test the high and also the TD Risk Level at 2.37
APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies signals trading systems execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts research and technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.
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