Environmental Assessment

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Environmental Assessment

• University of Illinois
• Office for Planning and BudgetingDecember 2006

2
Environmental Assessment Purpose and Process

• The purpose of an environmental assessment is to
  support and inform the strategic planning
  process. A good environmental assessment will
  help an organization understand and respond
  effectively to changes in their environments.1
• This environmental assessment provides
  information on demographics, higher education,
  economic and budgetary matters, research,
  technology, and economic development, the
  political landscape, and the related
  implications, opportunities, and challenges for
  the University of Illinois.
• This version of the University of Illinois
  environmental assessment has been updated and
  expanded from the analysis that was initially
  developed in March 2005 to set a context for the
  Universitys strategic planning framework. In
  addition to updating source data for many of the
  charts and graphs originally included,
  information has also been added on the topics of
  global competitiveness in higher education
  participation, completion, and attainment,
  energy, online education, and the impacts of the
  aging population.
• Because the external environment in which the
  University of Illinois operates is continually
  changing, the environmental assessment will be
  updated and refined periodically to reflect the
  most recent available information on key
  opportunities and challenges facing the
  University.
• Feedback on the usefulness of the environmental
  assessment and suggestions for improvement are
  welcome and encouraged. Please direct any
  comments or questions to the University Office
  for Planning and Budgeting (UOPB) via e-mail to
  envscan_at_uillinois.edu.

1 Bryson, John M. Strategic Planning for Public
and Nonprofit Organizations. 2004.
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Key Highlights Opportunities

• Creatively addressing the educational, health
  care, and other needs of an increasingly diverse
  Illinois population
• Developing a niche within the rapidly developing
  market for online education both nationally and
  globally
• Responding to the growing global demand for
  individuals with training in the sciences and
  engineering

• Enhancing capacity in energy research and
  development (both traditional and renewable
  sources)
• Developing new and enhanced University revenue
  sources from the growing demand for higher
  education and RD activities
• Effectively responding to the increased interest
  of state and federal policymakers in the public
  accountability of colleges and universities

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Key Highlights Challenges

• Maintaining and enhancing access to the
  University for minority, low income, and
  first-generation students
• Recruiting and retaining high quality faculty and
  staff given increasing competition and looming
  retirements
• Ensuring the highest level of academic quality in
  the face of state and federal funding constraints

• Maintaining the Universitys physical environment
  absent new infusions of state capital funding
• Expanding the Universitys RD capacity given
  federal funding constraints
• Balancing interest in enhancing higher
  educations public accountability with legitimate
  privacy concerns within the University community
  (students, faculty, and staff)

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Table of Contents

• Demographics.
  7
• U.S. Population Projections, 2000-2020 8
• Illinois Population Ages 18-24 Race/Ethnicity 9
• University of Illinois Statewide Presence 10
• Undergraduate and Graduate/Professional
  Enrollments by Race/Ethnic Higher Education 11
• Minority Enrollment Data by Campus 12
• University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by
  Race/Ethnicity 13
• University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by
  Gender 14
• University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by
  Race/Ethnicity 15
• University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by
  Gender 16
• University of Illinois SURS Participants,
  Tenure-System Faculty Age Distribution 17
• University of Illinois SURS Participants,
  Non-Tenure Faculty and Staff by Age
  Distribution 18
• Health Care and Aging 19
• Implications for the University of Illinois 20
• Higher Education
  . 21
• International Comparisons Higher Education
  Attainment 22
• International Comparisons Higher Education
  Participation and Completion 23
• Projected Percentage Change in Number of
  High-School Graduates from 2002 to 2009 24
• University of Illinois Degrees Conferred 25

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Table of Contents

• Economy and Budget
  ... 33
• Economic Value of Higher Education 34
• U.S. Economic Indicators 35-36
• State of Illinois Economic and Fiscal
  Indicators 37
• State of Illinois General Fund Appropriations by
  Sector FY 2007 38
• State of Illinois Financial Liabilities 39
• Illinois Projected Employment Growth,
  2002-2012 40
• University of Illinois Share of State Tax
  Appropriations FY 1980 to FY 2007 41
• University of Illinois Budget by Source of
  Funds 42
• University of Illinois All Sources of Duns FY
  1990 FY 2007 43
• The Center The Top American Research
  Universities 44
• Big Ten University and Foundation Endowments 45
• Public Higher Education Capital Appropriation
  History FY 1999 to FY 2007 46
• Implications for the University of Illinois 47
• Research, Technology, and Economic
  Development. 48
• Trends in Federal RD Funding 49
• Total RD Expenditures of Carnegie Research I
  Institutions, FY 2004 50
• University of Illinois Rank among AAU
  Institutions on Selected Quality Indicators 51
• International Comparison Production of
  Undergraduate Degrees in Natural Sciences
  Engineering 52

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Demographics
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U.S. Population Projections, 2000-2020
Projected Total Number of High-School Graduates
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Illinois Population Ages 18-24 Race/Ethnicity
N 1.358M
N 1.200M
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University of Illinois Statewide Presence
On-Campus Headcount Enrollment by County, Fall
2005
University of Illinois Campus Locations

• Additional Facilities
• Regional Medical Colleges
• Rockford
• Peoria
• Urbana-Champaign
• Illinois has 102 Counties
• U of I Extension serves all 102 Counties
• Police Training Institute FY 2005 students from
  81 Illinois Counties
• Fire Service InstituteFY 2005 students from 99
  Illinois Counties
• FY 2005 State-wide Programming Course Locations
  in 16 Illinois Counties
• Online Instruction accessible from all 102
  Illinois Counties
• Regional Agricultural Stations
• 4-H Camps

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Undergraduate Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity Fall
2006
UIC
UIUC
UIS
Graduate/Professional Enrollments by
Race/Ethnicity Fall 2006
UIC
UIS
UIUC
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Minority Enrollment Data Fall 1996 through Fall
2006
UIC
UIS
UIUC
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University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by
Race/EthnicityFall 2005 All Fund Sources
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University of Illinois Full-Time Faculty by
GenderFall 2005 All Fund Sources
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University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by Race
and EthnicityFall 2005 All Fund Sources
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University of Illinois Full-Time Staff by
GenderFall 2005 All Fund Sources
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University of Illinois SURS Participants,
Tenure-System Faculty Age Distribution October
10, 2005
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University of Illinois SURS Participants,
Non-Tenure Faculty and Staff Age
Distribution October 10, 2005
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Health Care Spending of GDP in the USA1975 -
2020
Health Care Spending of GDP2003
Total Spending on Health Care Per Person2003
Number of Americans Over 60 by Decade
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DemographicsImplications for the University of
Illinois

• Illinois will experience slight population growth
  in coming years.
• As with the rest of the U.S., Illinois
  population will become more diverse and the
  Hispanic population will grow faster than any
  other segment.
• The proportion of African-American students at
  UIC and UIUC grew slightly after a period of
  decline, while the proportion of Hispanic
  students has generally grown at all three
  campuses in recent years. Pressure from
  University stakeholders to enhance diversity
  among students, staff, and faculty will continue.
  
• The over 50 population will grow rapidly. This
  aging population will put increasing pressure on
  social services and health care and may view
  higher education as less of a priority in the
  future.
• A significant proportion of the Universitys
  tenure/tenure-track faculty are age 55 or over
  creating the potential for large numbers of
  retirements in the near future.

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Higher Education
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International Comparison Higher Education
Attainment
Page 22
Source Organisation of Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD). Data represent the
percentage of adults with an associates degree
or higher in 2003.
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International Comparison Higher Education
Participation and Completion
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Source Organisation of Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD). Data are for 2003.
24
Projected Percentage Change in Numberof
High-School Graduates from 2002 to 2009
University of Illinois On-Campus
HeadcountEnrollment by State Fall 2005
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University of Illinois Degrees Conferred FY 2005
UIS Bachelors Degrees Conferred by
Race/Ethnicity FY 2005
UIUC Bachelors Degrees Conferred by
Race/Ethnicity FY 2005
UIC Bachelors Degrees Conferred by
Race/Ethnicity FY 2005
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Percentage of Bachelors Degrees Awarded by Gender
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Mean Income by Quintile in Illinois 1982 to 2004
Increase in Median Income for Families by
Quintile 1982 to 2004
Percent of Undergraduates Who Receive MAP Awards
by RaceFY 2005
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Faculty Salary Comparisons, IBHE Peers
Full-time Instructional Faculty Salary Rank, Fall
2005UIC
Full-time Instructional Faculty Salary Rank, Fall
2005UIUC
Full-time Instructional Faculty Salary Rank, Fall
2005UIS
Research I Universities Full-Time Instructional
Faculty Average Salaries FY 1982 to FY 2006
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University of Illinois Faculty and Enrollments
FTE On-Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure-System
Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2005 UIC
FTE On-Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure-System
Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2005 UIS
FTE On Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure
System Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2005
FTE On-Campus Enrollment per FTE Tenure-System
Faculty Fall 1983 to Fall 2005 UIUC
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Enrollment in Online Courses
National EnrollmentsFall 2002 to Fall 2005
At the University of Illinois Fall 1999 to Fall
2005
At Illinois Colleges and Universities Fall 1999
to Fall 2005
Illinois vs. University of Illinois FY 2005
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Prominent Online Educators
UI Online Course Enrollments 1998-2005

• 5 billion in total revenue generated by U.S.
  online education in 2004
• 3 million online enrollment compared to 17
  million on-ground enrollment in 2004
• Average annual growth rate in online education
  was 23 from 2002 2005

Enrollment by College (Univ. of Phoenix)

• University of Phoenix - 130,000 degree seeking
  online students (50 total enrollment), 30/year
  online growth rate
• Walden University - 23,000 degree seeking online
  students, 6,500 in doctoral programs, 90/year
  online growth rate during past 4 years
• Arizona Universities Network - 15,000 headcount
  students, growth rate constrained by traditional
  campus-based delivery model
• U MD University College - 48,000 online students
  (54 total enrollment), 30/year online growth

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Higher EducationImplications for the University
of Illinois

• U.S. competitiveness in higher education
  participation, completion, and attainment, while
  still strong, is slipping relative to other
  developed and developing nations.
• The college age population will grow nationwide,
  but this growth will vary greatly among regions.
  The West, Southwest, and Southeast will
  experience growth that will exceed capacity in
  public higher education, although in general the
  Midwest will not.
• A larger percentage of women are attending higher
  education than men and the gap is increasing.
• Competition from proprietary institutions and
  other non-traditional educational providers in
  the marketplace for students (both nationally and
  internationally) has greatly increased in recent
  years.
• Growth in faculty compensation at private
  institutions has surpassed public universities,
  and the intense competition for faculty will
  continue.
• Relatively flat incomes at the lower income
  brackets in recent years will have implications
  for tuition and financial aid policies
  particularly with regard to promoting access for
  low income and first-generation students.
• Rapid technological innovation has led to a need
  for lifelong learning that will allow individuals
  to continuously adapt and update skills. On-line
  instruction has grown rapidly in the last 10
  years as it has gained mainstream acceptance due
  to increasing internet access and innovations in
  instructional technologies.

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Economy and Budget
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Value of Higher Education
The Lifetime Expected Value of a Bachelors
Degreeis Rising Compared to a High School
Diploma
Median Income by Educational Achievement(Males)
CUMULATIVE LIFETIME EXPECTED EARNINGS (Dollars in
Millions)
Males
Females
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U.S. Economic Indicators
Cumulative Inflation Increases
Gross Domestic Product Annual Change
Target Federal Funds Rate
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U.S. Economic Indicators
Relative Labor Costs Among Major Auto-Producing
Nations (in dollars per hour)
Increase in U.S. Health Insurance Premiums
Compared to Other Indicators 1988 - 2005
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State of Illinois Economic Fiscal Indicators
State of IllinoisState-Supported Principal
OutstandingEnd-of-Year FY 1996-2006(Dollars in
Billions)
Cumulative Growth FY 1990 FY 2007
University of Illinois Flash Index Data
State of IllinoisGeneral Obligation Debt
ServicePrincipal and Interest
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State of IllinoisGeneral Fund Appropriations by
Sector FY 2007
State Tax AppropriationsChanges by Agency
State Tax AppropriationsHigher Education vs.
Elementary/Secondary Education
Sources of GRF
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State of Illinois Financial Liabilities
The 5 State Pension Systems
Medicaid Liability 15
Current Unfunded Liability 35.1 billion

• Teachers Retirement (not Chicago) 17.9B
• State Employees Retirement 11.2B
• State Universities Retirement 5.3B
• Judges Retirement 0.6B
• General Assembly Retirement 0.1B

House Demographic Analysis FY 2006 Adjusted
Pension Funding 2005 - 2045

• Taxpayers will contribute 286.6 billion to the 5
  pension systems.
• 40 will cover benefits paid and
• 60 will make payments on past years unfunded
  liability

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Illinois Projected Employment Growth, 2002-2012
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Average Compounded Annual IncreasesFY 1990 FY
2007
University of Illinois Share of State Tax
Appropriations FY 1980 to FY 2007
University of IllinoisPayments on Behalf
State of IllinoisGeneral Fund Appropriation FY
2007
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University of Illinois Budget by Source of
FundsFY 1980, FY 2007 and Projected FY 2017
FY 1980
Projected FY 2017
FY 2007
641.7 Million
7,048.5 Million
3,683.8 Million
Based on FY 1996-2007 Trends.
Excludes AFMFA.
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University of IllinoisAll Source of Funds FY
1990 FY 2007(Dollars in Millions)
University of IllinoisAll Source of Funds as a
of Total BudgetFY 1990 FY 2007
University of IllinoisCumulative GrowthFY 1990
FY 2007
State Tuition Pay for Instructional
Function Expenditures by Function FY 2005
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Total Endowment-Equivalent Adjusted for Student
FTE EnrollmentUniversities with More Than 20
Million in Federal Research in Rank Order
The Center The Top American Research
Universities(August 2002)
2004 Adjusted Total Endowment-EquivalentBased on
The Centers MethodologyUIUC Peer Institutions
(in billions)
2004 Adjusted Total Endowment-EquivalentBased on
The Centers MethodologyUIC IBHE Peer
Institutions (in billions)
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Big Ten University and Foundation
Endowments (Dollars in Billions)
Percentage Growth from 1995-2005
FY 2005
Big Ten University and Foundation Endowments
Annual Change in Endowment Spending
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Public Higher Education Capital Appropriation
History FY 1999 to FY 2007(Dollars in Thousands)
U of I Capital AppropriationsFY 1995 to FY
2007(Dollars in Millions)
Total Debt by Type
Total Debt by Campus
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Economy and BudgetImplications for the
University of Illinois

• The economic value of higher education to the
  individual especially those with
  post-baccalaureate degrees continues to grow.
• The U.S. economy will continue to grow, but at a
  slower rate. Health care costs continue to grow
  at a more rapid rate than general inflation and
  earnings which has an impact on both the national
  economy and governmental spending at all levels.
• The states fiscal situation, while somewhat
  improved, faces continued challenges in the
  coming years. Health care and pension obligation
  costs are expected to continue rising rapidly and
  will likely outpace any state revenue growth
  realized resulting in continued constraints on
  discretionary spending in the state budget
  (e.g., higher education).
• The state has greatly increased its debt burden
  in the last four years creating a reluctance
  among state policymakers to fund additional
  capital improvements. At the same time, the
  University must increasingly rely on internal
  sources for funding capital projects which in
  turn has contributed to increased debt service
  levels.
• The University has become more reliant on
  multiple revenue streams and state policymakers
  may interpret this trend as meaning the
  University can more easily absorb reductions or
  at least flat funding in the general
  appropriation.

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Research, Technology, and Economic Development
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Trends in Federal RD Funding
Federal Outlays for RDAll Agencies Annual
Percentage Change
Federal Outlays for RDNational Institute of
Health Annual Percentage Change
Federal RD Budget Proposal (Dollars in Millions)
Federal Outlays for RDNational Science
Foundation Annual Percentage Change
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Total Research and Development Expenditures of
Carnegie Research I Institutions, FY 2004
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University of Illinois Rank Among AAU
Institutions on Selected Quality Indicators
Sources National Science FoundationUSDA
Obligations, State/Local and Federal R D
spending, No. Post doctorates IPEDSNo.
Doctorates Thomson ISINo. Faculty Citations.
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International Comparison Production of
Undergraduate Degrees in Natural Sciences and
Engineering
Note Natural sciences include physical,
biological, earth, atmospheric, ocean,
agricultural, and computer sciences, and
mathematics. Data include terminal
undergraduate degrees only (e.g., bachelors
degrees). Source National Science Foundation
(NSF), Science and Engineering Indicators 2006.
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International Comparison Doctoral Degrees
Granted in Natural Sciences and Engineering
(1993 2003)
Notes Natural sciences include physical,
biological, earth, atmospheric, ocean,
agricultural, and computer sciences, and
mathematics. Data for China ends in
2001. Data for all countries include degrees
granted to both native and foreign national
students. Source National Science Foundation
(NSF), Science and Engineering Indicators 2006.
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University of Illinois Technology TransferU.S.
Patents
Applications Filed FY 1999 FY 2005
Technology Disclosures FY 1999 FY 2005
Issued FY 1999 FY 2005
Licenses Options Executed FY 1999 FY 2005
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University Technology Transfer and
Commercialization Performance Index 2000 - 2004

• Rank Institution Name
• Massachusetts Inst. Of Technology (MIT)
• University of California System
• California Institute of Technology
• Stanford University
• University of Florida
• University of Minnesota
• Brigham Young University
• University of British Columbia
• University of Michigan
• New York University
• Georgia Institute of Technology
• University of Pennsylvania
• University of Illinois, Chicago, Urbana-Champaign
• University of Utah
• University of Southern California
• Cornell Research Fdn., Inc.
• University of Virginia Patent Fndtn.
• Harvard University

• Overall Score
• 100.00
• 96.59
• 92.94
• 92.65
• 86.11
• 85.55
• 85.41
• 84.23
• 82.54
• 81.63
• 80.95
• 80.83
• 80.35
• 79.40
• 79.28
• 78.69
• 78.52
• 77.68

Brief Methodology Description The purpose of this
index is to show performance in the overall
commercialization pipeline, including all
research fields. The four criteria (outcome
measures) that factor into the overall score are
Patents Issued, Licenses Executed, Licensing
Income, and Startups. A weighted average of the
scores in these areas was computed. The
Licensing Income and Startups scores received the
highest weights since they are the most direct
outcome measures. The overall scores have been
re-benchmarked to 100 in order to form an index.
SOURCE Milken Institute. Mind to Market A
Global Analysis of University Biotechnology
Transfer and Commercialization. September 2006.
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Energy Use Projections
Energy CostsCumulative Increases
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Renewable Energys Role in U.S. Supply
Illinois Renewable Energy Presence

• Wind is the worlds fastest growing energy
  technology.
• Illinois currently has 6 ethanol plants in
  operation and 1 under construction.
• Illinois corn is used to produce 40 of the
  ethanol consumed in the U.S.
• Investment by the ethanol industry in Illinois
  exceeds 1 billion, generating  800 jobs in plant
  operations and 4,000 jobs in the industry-related
  service  sector.
• ADM is the largest producer of fuel ethanol in
  the U.S.
• UIs Renewable Energy Efforts
• UIUC will build 3 wind turbines on the South
  Farms to provide electricity and serve as a
  demonstration to farmers (2007).
• UIUCs new business building will be its first
  sustainable building, utilizing solar panels and
  other clean technologies.

OECD Renewable Energy Growth
Illinois Nuclear Presence

• Illinois has 6 nuclear power plants, the largest
  family of nuclear facilities in the Nation.
• Over half of Illinois power is derived from
  nuclear.
• Illinois nuclear generation capacity is greater
  than any other state and all but seven world
  nations.
• Illinois is also home to the Department of
  Energys Argonne National Laboratory and Fermi
  National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab).
• Argonne has a long history of research and
  development in nuclear reactor technology.
• Fermilab conducts research on the frontier of
  high energy physics and related disciplines.
• University of Illinois faculty have a history of
  collaboration with researchers at both facilities.

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Research, Technology, Economic
DevelopmentImplications for the University of
Illinois

• Federal RD spending has slowed significantly in
  recent years and this pattern is likely to
  continue in the near term due to the slowing
  economy and other significant pressures on the
  federal budget (e.g., defense, homeland
  security).
• The bedrock of economic development through
  research and technology commercialization are top
  quality science and engineering faculty and
  students. Intense competition for science and
  faculty and students nationally and
  internationally coupled with stagnant state and
  federal funding will create serious challenges
  for major research institutions such at the
  University of Illinois as they attempt to
  maintain and enhance the quality and
  competitiveness of their research programs and
  technology commercialization endeavors.
• Land grant and other major research universities
  are increasingly expected to have technology
  transfer as a key part of their overall economic
  development mission. The Universitys efforts in
  this area have grown considerably in recent years
  although many technical and competitive
  opportunities (and challenges) remain.
• Global interest in renewable energy sources will
  continue to grow in the future due to the overall
  increase in demand and continued concerns about
  the cost and supply of fossil fuels and other
  traditional energy sources. The University has
  an opportunity to take a leadership role in
  energy research and development given its
  proximity to traditional (e.g., coal, nuclear)
  and renewable (e.g., biomass, wind) energy
  sources and its fundamental strengths in science
  and engineering disciplines.

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Political Landscape
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Political LandscapeImplications for the
University of Illinois

• Higher education issues have traditionally been
  state concerns, but Congress also has become much
  more interested in issues related to higher
  educations affordability and public
  accountability.
• Growing public concern over affordability and
  recent legislation (e.g., Truth in Tuition)
  will make major increases in tuition challenging
  to achieve.
• Congress is also interested in an array of issues
  concerned with Homeland Security, which will have
  implications for privacy and student issues.
• The P-16 education continuum has been truncated
  in the minds of many state policymakers and no
  longer includes higher education there is,
  however, a significant focus on issues related to
  K-12 education and its financing.
• While the University enjoys a broad base of
  support within the General Assembly, the
  dominance of other issues facing the state
  legislature (e.g., health care, pensions, K-12
  education) make it difficult to advance the
  Universitys (or higher educations) interests.
• There is growing interest at both the state and
  national levels in creating complex data systems
  that would provide policy makers and the general
  public with detailed information on student
  progress through the P-16 educational pipeline
  and beyond to the work place.

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Sources

• External Sources
• U.S. Bureau of the Census
• WICHE Enrollment Projections 2005
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Post Secondary Education Opportunity Newsletter
• National Science Foundation Science and
  Engineering Indicators 2006
• National Center for Public Policy and Higher
  Education
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
  Development (OECD)
• U.S. Office of Trade and Economic Analysis
• U.S. Office of Management and Budget
• TIAA-CREF Institute Quarterly
• Illinois Economic and Fiscal Commission
• Milken Institute
• Governors State Budget Recommendations for FY
  2007
• House Democratic Budget Summit Document FY 2007
• Northern Illinois University 2006 Illinois Policy
  Survey
• U of I Reports
• Profile of Students, Faculty and Staff by
  Race/Ethnic Group, Gender and Disability

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