Capturing the Green Jobs Opportunity

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Capturing the Green Jobs Opportunity

• Joel Rogers
• UW-Madison, COWS, CSI, MIP, GLSC, Apollo, G4A
• EARN, Las Vegas, December 9, 2008

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What Ill talk about

• What are green jobs? How do we improve them in
  state policy?
• How dirty and inefficient our current energy
  generation and use is, and why efficiencys
  progressive
• An easy place to start

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Skepticism welcome
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Blinding self-concern not
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I made some slides for you
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Like this slide.
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And this one.
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I wonder about PowerPoint.
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Power corrupts.
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Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
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Absolute PowerPoint just cant be good.
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The end of the Anthropocene?

• 8M BC-1780, CO2 in atmosphere was steady (give or
  take 10 parts per million) at 280ppm
• Increased 35ppm over next 150 yrs (1930s), 15ppm
  over next 40 yrs (1970s), 20ppm over next 20 (199
  0s), 20ppm over next ten (2005)
• CO2 is 385 ppm today (2008)
• At present rates of growth, it should reach 500
  ppm before mid-century
• Last time that happened was the Eocene period, 50
  million years ago, when sea levels were 300 feet
  higher than today
• Global warming already associated with massive
  ice cap melting, extreme weather, crop collapse,
  population migration

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The last 160,000 years and the next 100 years
Temperature difference from now C
CO2concentration (ppmv)
Now
160
120
80
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Time (thousands of years)
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(No Transcript)
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Green jobs whats real and whats not and how to
improve
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What are green jobs?

• Green is work devoted to climate mitigation or
  adaptation or, more broadly, to improving
  productive use of natural capital
• Green jobs (GJs) are either actual jobs devoted
  to these tasks either wholly (close to zero) or
  partly (soon, virtually all) or FTEs devoted
  wholly to them
• Even on an FTE basis, most GJs look a lot like
  current jobs. The difference lies less in their
  technologies, materials, or skills than in what
  those are used for.
• This said, there are clusters of characteristic,
  or expected, green job activity that will require
  some reordering and reframing of skills transfer

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GJ estimates in energy
Today
Projected in 2030
Source Bezdek (MISI)/ASES
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GJ jobs in misc related sectors
Source PERI CAP
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RE jobs per Project Investment
Source REPP
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Potential RE MFG by state
Source REPP
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A modest estimate on RE
Source Kammen, Kapadia, and Fripp, 2006
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Wind Production jobs
Source COWS
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Energy Efficiency Jobs
Source COWS
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BioFuels Production Jobs
Source COWS/BLS
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How to capture the GJ opportunity

• Map your economy, identify competitive advantage
  or local demand, maintain real-time data on
  demand, wages, skills needs, etc.
• Make public training responsive to but not
  bullied by existing employer demand upgrade that
  demand using any tools you have, including
  regulation, subsidies, standards, etc.
• Require local benefit, credentialing and
  transferability and recognition of skills, career
  ladders
• Build an industry, not just project demand

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A career ladder
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How dirty and wasteful we are, and why
improving that will help the poor
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Dirty generation
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Measure for measure

• A quad is a quadrillion BTUs
• 1.0 Btu 252 calories
• 1Btu/hour 0.293 W
• 3.413 Btu/hr 1.0 watt
• 1 Quad/hour 293,000,000,000,000 W 293,000 gW
  or 293 million mW
• 1 Quad 170 million barrels of oil equivalent
  (boe)

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U.S. energy flows (1)
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US energy flows (2)
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Efficiency is the first fuel
Source ACEEE
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Cheap and getting cheaper
Cents per KWh
Price of carbon per ton
Source ACEEE
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Good financial returns
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Building energy consumption

• About 400B annually
• About 50 percent savings available on simple
  cost-effective basis (i.e., lifetime energy
  savings from efficiency measures exceed their
  purchase, installation, and maintenance costs)
• Thats a lot of money

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Benefits of building energy retrofits

• Income to tenants and owners
• Climate and public health
• Extended building life and higher property values
• Tenant/occupant health and productivity
• Non-offshorable employment, at about 12.5 person
  years of employment per 1M invested

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Median household consumption
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Drive til you qualify
Source Center for Neighborhood Technology and
National Housing Policy Center, 2007
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Gains from one less car
Source ICF International, 2007
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Comprehensive urban building retrofits as a
project
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Building contribution to CO2 emissions
Building contribution to CO2 emissions
U.S. sources of CO2
Building contribution to CO2 emissions
Building contribution to CO2 emissions
Transportation 32
Residential 21
Buildings 43
Commercial 17
Industrial 5
Industry 25
Source Pew Center on Global Climate Change
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Rebuilding America?
Source Nelson, Toward a new Metropolis
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100 US Metros
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Why cities are great

• Big population with associated buying power
• Strategic location and regional linkages
• Population and firm density, with agglomeration
  effects, complementary skill sets, associated
  innovation
• Infrastructure (ports, airports, other
  transportation networks)
• Higher wages/productivity
• Lower waste
• Centers for research, education, health care,
  knowledge economy, finance, business services,
  hospitality, etc.
• More diverse, tolerant, attractive to youth and
  immigrants
• More progressive in politics
• More easily organized

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The riddle of unclaimed value
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Benefits of building energy retrofits

• Income to tenants and owners
• Climate and public health
• Extended building life and higher property values
• Tenant/occupant health and productivity
• Non-offshorable employment, at about 12.5 person
  years of employment per 1M invested

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RRIDDLLS

• Regulatory surround is bad (efficiency not
  encouraged)
• Risk aversion among tenants and owners,
  especially given uncertain duration of
  tenancy/ownership
• Information problems on everything (benefits,
  cost, reliable service)
• Disaggregated savings
• Disruption
• Lack of capital
• Lack of interest
• Split incentives (tenants vs. owners, developers
  vs. owners)

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An offer they cant refuse?

• E2 will buy and install cost-effective
  energy-efficiency measures in your home or
  business with no up-front payment from you and no
  new debt obligation. The cost of this service
  included, your net energy bill should drop
  immediately and always be lower than it would
  have been without E2 participation. Your service
  obligation ends when you quit this property and
  is suspended during any period of measure
  malfunction, which we will repair at no cost to
  you.

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Solving the riddle
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Sample utility bill
Your expected (pre-E2-participation) energy bill
170 Your energy consumption this
month 135 E2 service charge 25 You
owe 160
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Future utility bill ?
Your expected (pre-E2-participation) energy bill
170 This months energy consumption
135 Demand response savings credit ( 30)
Negawatts credit for forward capacity (
30) Climate exchange credit ( 30) Energy
sold back to grid ( 30) Your net energy
bill this month 15 E2 service charge
25 You owe
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High leverage