Higher Education and Floridas Economy in 2027

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Higher Education and Floridas Economy in
2027 Mark Rosenberg, Chancellor, State
University System Judy Genshaft, President,
University of South Florida Joe Shepard, VP for
Administration and Finance, Florida Gulf Coast
University August 1, 2007
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Three Key Questions

• Where Will the State Get 10 Million Graduates?
• What Quality Should Students Expect?
• How Will Their Education be Financed?

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Operating Assumptions

• 2 2 System Works Strong Partner Relationship
  with Community Colleges
• Accountability is the Cornerstone of Any
  Effective SystemWe Are Performance Oriented
• Cheaper is Not Always Better

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One Million More 18-34 Year-Olds by 2027
SUS AGE GROUPS
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18-34 Population by Race/Ethnicity
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Minority Participation Rates Will Shape the Future
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How Much Education Do We Expect for Todays
Newborns?
Does not include future inflation. Based on
current funding/student. Add 12 to reach
national average level of funding.
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Quality Suffers When Funding Lags Behind Rising
Enrollment and Costs
Constant 2005-06 dollars, adjusted using the
Higher Education Price Index at
www.commonfund.org. Full- and part-time tenured
and tenure track and multi-year contract faculty
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Sources of the 8.2 Billion Operating Budget
53.8
Core Discretionary Budget
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Expenditures from the Core Budget
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Sources of State Funds for Construction 4
Billion from 1996-2008
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The ROI Economic Impact of a Bachelor Degree

• Approx. 20,000 annually in additional earnings
  over HS Diploma (16,000 for women, 24,000 for
  men)
• 2,000 more in annual state/local taxes
• 50,000 more in state/local taxes over 25 years
• 50,000 annual degrees 25 billion more in
  career income, 2.5 billion in long-term
  state/local tax revenue

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Recommendation 1 Revise Current Use of Lottery
Funds/Bright Futures

• Limit future growth of Bright Futures.
• Enhance need-based aid
• Increase funds to match private gifts to
  universities

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Recommendation 2 Use Dedicated Funding Streams
to Improve Predictability

• Protect Higher Educations Share of Public
  Education Capital Outlay (PECO)
• Consider tax on services that require
  postsecondary credentials
• Consider additional tobacco tax (applied to
  manufacturers exempt from settlement)

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Recommendation 3 Create Large Forgivable Loan
Program

• 500-1 billion annual loan volume
• Low interest, no principal repayments until
  income exceeds 30,000
• 1/3 forgivable for working in Florida five years
• 1/3 forgivable for working in a priority
  occupation for five years

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College and University Cost Increases 2001-2007,
U.S. Averages
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Average Earnings Increase by Highest Degree
Attained (U.S.), 1991-2005
National Center for Education Statistics,
Condition of Education 2006
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SUS Expenditures per Full-Time Student, 2001-02
to 2006-07
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Change in Southern States Spending per Student
on Public Universities, 2001-2006
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Total Funding per Full-Time Equivalent
StudentHistory and Current Situation
Recession
Post 9/11 cuts
CURRENT OPTIONS
No cut
-4
-10
Lottery introduced to enhance education funds
Constant 2005-06 dollars per FTE
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Funding per Full-Time Equivalent Student and
Student/Faculty Ratios
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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4 Reductions We Cant Afford

• 17,000 Students . . . or
• University of North Florida . . . or
• 1,000 faculty . . . or
• All four law schools and all 10 history
  departments . . . or
• All travel, library purchases, and ??? (still not
  4)

Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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10 Reductions We Cant Afford

• 42,000 Students . . . or
• FIU . . . or
• IFAS and all four law schools . . . or
• All assistant professors . . . or
• All 10 business schools . . .

Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Scale of 4 and 10 Cuts in Operational Terms
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Efficiency
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Florida
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Floridas Graduation Rates are High Relative to
Funding
Notes 1)Average of freshmen who graduated
from the same institution within six
years.Including in-system transfers, the six-year
SUS graduation rate is 63.7, but comparable data
not available for other states. 2)The average
time from freshman enrollment to degree is 4.2
years.
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Comparison of Direct and Indirect Expenditures
Per Credit
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Florida
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Inflation-Adjusted Spending Per Upper-Division
Credit Hour
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Florida
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Funding Comparisons
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Funding Change for Public Universities, Florida
and SREB States, 2001-2006
From Southern Regional Education Board (SREB),
Florida Featured Facts 2007
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Cuts Would Further Erode Floridas Relative
Position in the South
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Cuts Would Further Erode Floridas Relative
Position in the South
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Change in Southern States Spending Per FTE
University Student
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Florida
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Funding History
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Florida
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Inflation-Adjusted Funding Per FTE Compared to
1991 Levels
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Florida
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Library Cost Increases--Examples
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Florida
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Impact of Current Funding Levels
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Beginning Spanish Section Sizes
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Florida
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Freshman Composition Section Sizes
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Florida
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Organic Chemistry Section Sizes
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Florida
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Physical Chemistry Section Sizes
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Florida
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Intro Biology Section Sizes
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Florida
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Business Plan / Tuition Freeze
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Florida
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What Would it Take to Increase Funding 8
Annually?
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Florida
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Effect of Growth Freezes on Total System
Enrollment (1000s)
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Effect of Freezing Freshman Enrollment Growth
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Florida
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System Enrollment (1000s) Based on Selected
Policy/Budget Scenarios
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Florida
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How Close are Universities to 40 Fee Cap?
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Background Data on SUS
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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SUS Fall Enrollment Since 1990
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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SUS Degrees Since 1990-91
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Undergraduate Residency Since 1990
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Since 1990
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Florida
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What Are Some Leading Indicators?
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Florida
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Are We Becoming More Selective?
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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What is Our Market Share?
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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Are Freshmen Better Prepared?
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida
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What is the Market Share of the Community
Colleges for Bachelor Ed?
Board of Governors, State University System of
Florida