A Systematic Analysis of Affirmative Action in American Law Schools


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A Systematic Analysis of Affirmative Action in
American Law Schools

• Richard H. Sander
• Presented by Anna Yang

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Main Issue

• Despite the prevalence of affirmative action
  policies in higher education scholars are only
  beginning to study seriously the relative costs
  and benefits of racial preferences in admissions.
  
• Do racial preferences in American law schools
  generate benefits to blacks that exceed the costs
  to blacks?
• Black law school applicants are the largest
  intended group of beneficiaries of affirmative
  action
• This study focuses solely on black and white law
  school applicants
• Case for affirmative action most compelling for
  blacks
• Data on blacks in most extensive
• Law school admissions treat blacks as a uniform
  group

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Why is it interesting?

• The costs of affirmative action on blacks have
  always been thought of as the stigma or negative
  stereotype of lowered admission standards
• The study focuses on more tangible and easily
  measured principal costs such as lower actual
  academic performance that results from
  preferential admissions
• A student who gains admission to a more elite
  school on nonacademic grounds is likely to
  struggle more academically
• Results in higher attrition rates lower pass
  rates on the bar exam problems in the job market
• How large are these effects and whether their
  consequences outweigh the benefits of greater
  prestige

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Key findings

• The levels of racial preferences in American law
  schools are very large and remarkably similar
• Hard to distinguish/ no control group
• Black students admitted through preference have
  significantly lower grades in law school
• Median black student starting law school in 1999
  received first year grades comparable to a white
  student in the 7th or 8th percentile
• These low grades substantially handicap black
  students and their efforts to graduate and pass
  the bar exam
• In 1991 only 45 of black law students completed
  law school and passed the bar on first attempt
  Sander estimates 74 w/o racial preference

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Key Findings cont.

• The job market benefits of attending an elite
  school is severely overrated.
• Better grades trump college prestige
• Most black lawyers would have higher earnings in
  absence of preferential admissions
• No indication that racial preference produces
  more black lawyers
• 86 of current black law students wouldve been
  admitted to law school under a raceblind system
• Lower attrition rates would possibly increase the
  number of black lawyers
• Cost of Affirmative Action Benefits

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Law School Admission Practices

• Admissions Curve
• Scenario one an admissions process where race is
  only a tiebreaker
• Scenario two a multifaceted admissions process
  that relies heavily on subjective criteria
  extracurriculars etc. and considers race as a
  diversity factor
• Scenario three an admissions process that relies
  primarily on the academic index and awards
  substantial points to black applicants
• Scenario four an admissions process that relies
  primarily on academic index but evaluates each
  racial group separately

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• Academic index 0.4 UGPA 0.6 LSAT

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Analyzing Michigan Law School Admission Practices
in 1999

• Admissions system awarded a maximum of 150 points
• Up to 110 pts for academic performance
• 10 pts for Michigan residency
• 4 pts for alumni children
• Up to 3 pts for outstanding essays
• Up to 5 pts for personal achievements
• 20 pts for blacks/hispanic applicants
• On the 1000pt scale of admission curve figures
  this translates to a minority boost of over 100
  pts
• Black and white applicants were not in the same
  playing field in admissions
• Race trumps all other diversity factor combined

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Analyzing Michigan Law School Admission Practices
in 1999

• Logistic Regression
• Evaluates the significance of some yesorno
  predictors on admissions decisions
• Gauge how much weight is given to particular sets
  of factors in admissions decisions
• Estimate the importance of the unknown by
  weighing the importance of the known
• Somers D
• Predicts the proportion of admissions outcomes
  that can be successfully predicted by knowing the
  academic index and the race of the applicants
• Somers D 0.88 for whites 0.90 for blacks at
  Michigan Law in 1999
• Controlling academic credentials residency
  status and race
• Knowing these measurable stats allows us to
  reduce the guesswork involved in predicting an
  individuals admission by 88
• More mechanical and less driven by nonracial
  diversity factors

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The Cascade Effect

• Racial preference does not only exist at elite
  schools
• Toptier schools snatch up most qualified
  applicants other tiers follow suit
• The academic index gap between white and blacks
  remain the same up and down the hierarchy of law
  schools
• LSAC Analysis
• 95 of the nations accredited law schools and
  most of the state bar examiners participated
• 1991 1997
• The racial gap of academic index does not
  disappear at lowertier schools

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Summary

• Law school admissions offices reply primarily on
  academic indices in selecting their students
• Since the number of blacks with high academic
  scores is small elite law schools achieve
  something close to proportional representation
  either by maintaining separate black and white
  admission tracks or by giving black applicants
  large numerical boosts
• Cascade effect The use of these preferences by
  elite schools gives nearly all other law schools
  little choice but the follow suit

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Effects of Affirmative Action on Academic
Performance in Law Schools

• Uses comprehensive LSACBPS data
• Converts each students first year GPA and
  graduation GPA into a number standarized for each
  school
• Findings Low black performance is simply the
  direct consequence of the disparity in entering
  credentials between blacks and whites at elite
  schools

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Strongest predictors of first yr law school
grades LSAT Score and UGPA
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Black students academic performance do not
adjust overtime
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Black students are less likely to graduate law
school
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Academic Performance is the most important
indicator of Graduation
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Affirmative Action has a negative effect on black
graduation rates
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Two phenomenons and their effects on attrition
rates

• Boosting of blacks from schools where they would
  have average grades to more elite schools where
  they would have poor grades
• Adds 4 to 5 points to the black attrition rate
• The Cascade Effect lower tier schools admit
  black students who would not be admitted to any
  schools in absence of racial preferences
• Adds 6 to 7 points to the black attrition rate

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Effects of Affirmative Action on Passing the Bar

• Nationally established standards and
  administering
• While each individual state adds its own portion
  of the exam the bar exam itself is produced by
  the national professional boards
• Only 61.4 of black takers in the national
  LSACBPS study passed the bar on their first
  attempt
• Blacks four times as likely to fail on their
  first attempt as whites

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Academic performance is the strongest factor for
bar exam passing
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Blacks have a much higher chance of failing the
bar than whites
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Explanations for the blackwhite gap

• Lower GPAs
• GPA is the strongest determinant of passing the
  bar
• The Cascade Effect
• A large number of black students enter law school
  with very low academic credentials
• In 1991 22 of black students matriculating had
  an academic index of 500 or less 0.2 of whites
  had scores in this range LSACBPS
• Among students of all races in this range 60
  fail their bar on their first attempt
• Both are byproducts of affirmative action

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Theories for the blackwhite gap

• Academic mismatch
• Elite law schools do not mainly focus on passing
  the bar
• The lonely struggle and the snowball effect
• First semester black law students reported
  spending similar time studying as white students
  but but found themselves substantially less
  prepared for class 1995 National Survey of Law
  Student Performance

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The Job Market

• Most powerful predictor of earnings
• Job Location
• First tier New York
• 2nd tier Washington LA Chicago San Francisco
• 3rd tier Atlanta Houston Minneapolis
• Law School GPA
• School Prestige a distant third
• Most powerful predictor of earnings

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Outside of top 10 law schools there is a large
market penalty for being in or near the bottom of
the class
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GPA and earnings for black students in the AJD
Sample
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Flawed system

• Race preference allows black students to attend a
  more prestigious school therefore this results
  in better jobs based solely on prestige
• Analysis shows that employers place more emphasis
  on academic performance over prestige
• Analysis also shows that employers are more
  willing to offer jobs to black applicants
• The absence of preference would greatly increase
  the supply of blacks with high grades

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Effects of elimination of affirmative action on
black lawyers

• Sanders claim the annual production of new
  black lawyers would probably increase if racial
  preferences were abolished tomorrow
• Current racial preferences boost black applicants
  up one to two tiers of prestige

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Raceblind admissions
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Implications of Results

• Justice OConnor was wrong
• Univ. of Michigans law school just like its
  undergraduate college was definitely adding
  academic indices for black applicants or using
  separate admission decisions
• Racial preference is not indispensable and works
  against having a reasonable number of blacks in
  the legal field
• Blacks are actually the victims of law school
  programs with affirmative action.

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Suggestions

• Get rid of it
• Minimum percentage
• Prevent black enrollment form falling below 4 of
  total enrollment
• Since preference is smaller academic gaps would
  be smaller between black and white students
• Still ensure significant black presence
• The most significant blackwhite gap would be at
  elite schools where harmful side effects of aff
  action for blacks are minimized and positive
  effects are maximized