Singapore in S.E. Asia

1
Singapore in S.E. Asia

• West Cluster Lecture by Mark Hong
  (markhong_at_iseas.edu.sg)
• VRF at Iseas, November 2007
• Students must know affirm the Spore story
  using the Head, heart hands framework, they
  become engaged and committed.

2
Introduction

• Invitation letter mentioned issues to be
  addressed
• Developing emotional rootedness amongst students
  no memories equals no patriotism? When everything
  is torn down every few years, how can memories be
  formed?
• National education speech 14 Aug 07 by Edun Mins.
  Tharman S. Whether we succeed as a nation
  depends not just on our economic competitiveness
  strategies, but also on our resilience
  cohesion as a people. We succeed if Sporeans are
  prepared to stand together feel responsibility
  for each other.
• One way is to learn the lessons from our history
  from relations with immediate
  neighborsglobalization makes NE imperative.
• Our bilateral relations with key Asean neighbors
  are down
• Implications on Singapores futurechanges
  reactions required
• The Asean Charter impact-economics politics
• These issues refer essentially to Singapores
  place and role in Asean, hence the Title
• We start by examining the State of Asean

3
We are Impacted by Our neighbors

• Singapore is part of SEA, hence Aseans present
  future conditions affect Spore intimately
• Asean is only as strong as the weakest member, so
  we need to help Cambodia, Laos,
  Myanmar-classified as least developed
• At same time, RI RP are becoming more
  democratic reviving in economic progress
• Arrival of democracy in Indonesia means greater
  freedom for MPs to posture criticize not only
  Indonesian Govt but also Spore Net result
  Spores relations with I/M/T strained
• Meanwhile on wider Asian world stage,
  geopolitical dynamics are shifting dramatically
  how should Asean react? So many unknowns-what can
  be expected?
• Important factors impacting on Asean and
  Singapore include generational change-youths who
  do not know/remember how hard the struggle was
  for survival identity changenow a stronger
  national identity, which implies a more
  nationalistic reactions to pressures from
  neighbors global changes such as rise of China
  and India end of Cold war spread of
  terrorism leadership changes in all Asean
  countries, who are largely technocrats/non-charism
  atic can they mobilize the people?

4
State of Asean Same BedDifferent Dreams

• Asean has One Dream of Asean Community, such as
  an Integrated Asean, but we shd be aware that
  member-states have different Visions,
• Thailand Golden Peninsula-based around Thai
  domination of Indochina-suvarnabhumi
• Indonesia Greater Indonesia-Sukarnos dream,
  now Vision 2030-to make Indonesia one of top 5
  countries in GDP size
• Malaysia Vision 2020 Singapore Global City
• Jemaah Islamiya an Islamic Caliphate, including
  most of SE Asia, with sharia, and linked to
  Ummah
• Vietnam Indochina federation, includes Laos
  Cambodia, with Hanoi dominant
• These different agendas can slow down Asean
  integration, without which Asean competitiveness
  is lessened vis-a-vis China India
• Even Msia RI-bangsa serumpun-friction
  incidents

5
Asean Glass Half Full-Half Empty
Failures 1.Not yet established Asean
Identity2. Asean InstitutionsLack of
compliances and dispute-settlement
mechanism 3.Crises settlement Mechanism weak
East Timor 4. Asean Economic Integration Slow 5.
Poor Implementation of Asean Agreements
Achievements 1. Maintain Regional Peace and
Stability2. Established patterns and habits of
cooperation.3. Widened cooperation beyond South
East Asia through dialogs,ARF, TAC, ASEAN 3
EAS. 4. Established excellent International
reputation Networking5. Concrete products like
AFTA,CHARTER,TAC6. Framework for regional
economic integration established.

• Caveats
• Consider how diverse Asean members are
• They have been separated by colonialism for long
  periods
• How poor some Asean members are Combodia, Laos,
  Myanmar

6
Asia-Pacific US-China Tug of War
7
Where is Spore Going? Anomie Alienation

• Rapid changes in 1990s/post 2000 leave people in
  Spore Asean bewildered 911 Asian Financial
  crises SARs natural disasters
• When British Forces in N. America surrendered to
  G. Washington in 1781 at Yorktown, they were
  allowed to keep their arms, but marched away with
  rifles upside down, to military band-song
  entitled World Turned Upside Down exactly how
  many people, such as jihadists, feel too rapid
  modernization/globalization-people cantcope
• Sporeans watching rich foreigners buy
  multi-million dollar aptms in Sentosa marina
  Bay-how do HDB heartlanders feel about rising
  property prices will the children of PRs fight
  for Spore?
• When the world we know changes so fast, people
  begin to feel like strangers in own country
  those who have western education feel torn
  between two culturesanomie alienation people
  turn to old religions for comfort violent
  extremism is one response
• New terms like westoxicification
  rootlessnessOccidentosis-reflect plight of
  people having no supporting traditions, no
  historical roots, no gradient of transformation
  observe Indonesia-growing piety self radicalized
  Muslims middle class doctors turning terrorists.
• Many changes affecting Spore see PM Lees Nat
  Day speech 9/8/7

8
Changing Perceptions of Singapore

• Of the various Asean neighbors, Indonesia,
  Malaysia Thailand are closer to us we need to
  pay careful attention
• Significant changes in attitude in I/M/T towards
  Spore in 06/07
• Advent of democracy decentralization in RI
  means more outspokenness criticisms-eg. Riau
  Govt wants to be consulted
• Central Govt in KL comments on Iskandar project
  very different from Johor- different signals to
  investors-create uncertainty
• Thailand very upset about Thaksin-Temasek
  linksdemos press criticisms-Royalty vs
  Thaksin what happens with new king?
• Widening gap between Global city Spore others
  in Asean resentment/Spore viewed as
  parasitic/exploiter
• Another factor loss of strong leaders Thaksin,
  Dr. Mahathir, Suharto weaker Central
  governments, more freedom
• Implications Asean members need more sensitive
  handling Temasek set up 500m. Asia Fund need
  for contd. coolheaded response cultural
  sensitivities to be respected
• To read these changes accurately, Singapore needs
  open minds and avoid complacency. Good
  intelligence starts with open mind.

9
How WB sees Spore
10
Competition has stiffened

• Malaysia has set up IDR in Johor
  Trans-peninsular Pipeline, both directly compete
  with Sporealso in education healthcare hubs
• India is building major oil refineries plans to
  be refining hub
• Dubai plans to compete with Spore as oil pricing
  hub aviation hubtourism hub
• Macao Taiwan plans to build casinos/resorts-comp
  ete with Spore
• In finance, many countries launched Sovereign
  Wealth Funds
• Abu Dhabi (1976) 1328 bn Norway (1990) 514bn
  Spore GIC (1981) 150 BN China (2007) 304 Bn
  Russia (2003) 193 bn Temasek (1974) 164 bn. So
  many Funds chasing good investment projects!
  Competition deepens.
• In terms of forex reserves, as of June 2007,
  following are Top Asian states China (1333bn)
  Japan913.6bn Taiwan266bn S. Korea 250.7bn
  India 213,5 bn Spore 144 bn HK 136.3bn
  Malaysia 98.4bn Thailand 73bn Indonesia
  51bn Philippines 26.4bn Pakistan 15.6
  bnimplications if USD weakens?
• Talent hunt is relentless globally people are
  very mobile
• Globalization has brought competition right to
  your doorstep!

11
Overview of our Foreign policy

• Assume audience knows our history, foreign
  policy, history of M/S ties
• If not familiar, recommend to read books
  articles mentioned below
• A good start point Michael Leifer Spores
  Foreign policy Coping with Vulnerability
  (Routledge 2000) also readN. Ganesan Realism
  Interdependence in Spores foreign policy
  (Routledge 2005)
• M. Leifer Spores Foreign policy is rooted in
  a culture of siege and insecurity, dating from
  the trauma of Separation.Hence, M/S relations
  are basic to our FP M Leifer said Spore is
  assertive/pugnacious
• Ganesan explained Spores FP in 4
  waysvulnerability sovereignty
  demography-small population strategic
  locationresource base-nil
• Recurrent themes such as ethnic tensions,
  suspicions antipathy between KL Spore lost
  hinterland water supplies, our vulnerability
  stress on survival political turbulence
  consequent political adventurism at Spores
  expense-we being every ones favorite scapegoat-
  resurfaces every now then, including in
  Indonesia-sand
• Spores vulnerability enhanced by geography we
  are air-locked sea-locked by neighbors by
  ethnicity a Chinese island in a Malay
  Sea-anti-Chinese race riots In RI in May 1998
• As early as Oct 1966, LKY said We have to ensure
  that we always have overwhelming power on our
  side in August 2007, he added Small powers
  will squeeze smaller powers. Malaysian PM had to
  apologize to RI over the beating of an Indon
  karate referee by 4 Malaysian policemen RI also
  tried to pressure Singapore over sand and the
  signing of the extradition treaty.
• The sanctity of national sovereignty must be
  protected, esp for small states even paranoids
  have enemies-real ones.

12
Lessons from our History

• Lesson 1 History does have an impact-UK
  separated Spore as crown colony in 1867 meant
  that we developed separately from Malaya
  self-government in 1959 meant that we had a taste
  of how to run a city, before we join Malaysia in
  1963-65
• 2. Problems need time to settle but with
  political will and vision by leaders from both
  sides, reconciliation is possible eg.France
  Germany Imperial Japan USA after WW2
• 3. One vehicle for reconciliation is economic
  integration, as in EU if we have wisdom to
  operate on positive sum game rather than zero-sum
  game, we can use Iskandar Devm. Region to
  Prosper our Neighbor- good for both sides
• 4. Another vehicle is to promote Youth programs
  which mixes younger generations together-getting
  to know/understand each side, like France
  Germany used youth programs both Msia Spore
  have organized annual youth camps
• 5. Third instrument is to use intl law to resolve
  disputes like Pedra Branca agree to accept
  verdict of ICJ- this will strengthens intl law
  and non-use of force-important for small states
• 6. We shd try to understand other sides
  perspective domestic problems the failure of
  other side becomes our failure too. Try to
  understand Msias initiative of ZOPFAN vs our
  balance of power

13
Lessons 2

• 7. Despite provocations from other side, we shd
  remain cool not respond emotionally our very
  calmness lowers temperatures
• 8. We shd avoid hubris arrogance despite our
  success people will like us better if we avoid
  boastful, showoff, crass behavior
• 9. Self-reliance in as many sectors plus
  diversification of sources is prudent see how
  neighbors cut off sand other resources
• 10. We shd try to negotiate from a strong
  position, despite appeals to emotions
  criticisms that we are over-legalistic states
  conduct their business on basis of intl law, not
  on emotions
• 11. National interests, and the protection
  thereof, are what drives inter state
  interactions, not sentiments the challenge is
  how to reconcile conflicting national interests
  without too much conflict or mutual unhappiness
• 12. We shd not become intimidated by shows of
  force or bad temper small states have as much
  rights to exist prosper as bigger ones
• 13. We shd remain tough-minded despite all sorts
  of pressures seduction appeals stamina,
  patience, perseverance needed
• 14. All sovereignties are equal, whether one is
  smaller or bigger

14
Lessons 3

• 15. We shd not be deluded about our importance
  Singapore is not as important to Malaysia as
  vice-versa
• 16. In treating of intl affairs, we shd try to
  separate race from nation
• 17. We have our National Principles, like
  meritocracy multi-racialism, which we adhere
  to respect the Principles of Others
• 18. Small powers do not mean weak powers we can
  oppose big ones successfullySpore abstained over
  Indon takeover of East Timor we fought a
  determined 10-year political battle against
  Vietnam
• 19. Cultivate powerful friends have the
  strongest firepower on our side, like the US
• 20. We shd work to give our friends a stake in
  our survival
• 21. In peace-time, practise our diplomats in
  networking influence
• 22. Do not under-estimate others they will learn
  fast overtake us
• 23. Other people have different mindsetsput
  yourself in their shoes
• 24. Learn to anticipate the future through
  RAHSpick up faint signals like the
  self-radicalized jihadist Abdul Basher Abdul
  Kader
• 25. Do not be too predictable or else we will be
  jerked around
• 26. Some paranoia is good for survival but too
  much is also bad
• 27. Be immune to name-calling little red dot
  (Indon)little snot (Taiwan) cat for skinning
  (Dr. Mahathir) little brother (adek)
• 28. Adverse impact of M/S rows disputes on
  foreign investors-2002

15
Lessons 4

• FM Jayakumar in Parl speech on 16-05-02 stated
• First, we shd not try to negotiate bilat issues
  through mass media-restricts room for manuver
  creates misunderstanding
• Second, keep open channels of communications to
  get messages through,via visits to share views
  discuss problems
• Third, there shd be no double standards applied
  to non-interference in domestic affairs, like
  Msian comments on tudung affair-school uniform
  rule
• Fourthly, bilat relations shd continue to be
  based on intl law observance of agreements, not
  on subjective criteria, emotionalism or
  sentimentality-this is why Spore stressed the
  need to respect Water Agreements or POA
• Fifth, there will always be ups downs take
  them in stride address each other on equal
  terms, take a long term basis, do not resort to
  unsubstantiated allegations or threats
• (Like waving a kris at public meetings.-in 2007)
• Another lesson sometimes changed external
  circumstances compel Spore to get closer to
  region/neighbors US withdrawal form Vietnam
  rise of China

16
Lessons 5 Economic Security

• Spores approach towards economic security is
  embedded in a deep security complex, which
  originated in trauma of separation basically it
  is the Lost hinterland Problem how to resolve
  this
• After separation, Spore was very weak
  vulnerableno SAF Confrontation contd till 1966
  many bilat problems economy was weak UK
  military withdrawal adopted themes-vulnerability,
  pragmatism,b/p
• Spore adopted Global City approach also
  leverages on regional resources-Growth Triangle
  it seeks to locate itself between industrial core
  (OECD) periphery (Third World)
• Definition of Econ Security safe-guarding the
  structural integrity prosperity, generating
  capabilities interests of a State in context of
  various external risks threats
• Economic security was/is very important in view
  of constant Msian efforts to bypass/marginalize/co
  mpete Spore it includes following factors
• Supply-security of imports water supplies
  access thru Straits of M
• Market access first thru Merger, then AFTA, also
  various FTAs
• Finance credit security competition to be
  financial hub-Labuan
• Techno-industrial capability security Msia set
  up Multimedia corridor biotech center Spore
  stresses R D knowledge-economy
• Systemic security of intl economic system-Spore
  supports IMF/WB
• Alliance security Spore initiated ASEM EALAF
  Msia-EAEC Spore worries about Balkanization of
  Asean members-offered US5 bn financial package
  to Indonesia following Asian Financial Crisis
  offered fin-aid to Msia in exchange for deal on
  water supplies in the future.

17
Structural Constraints

• Ethnic factor racial balance in both countries a
  fact of life race policies based on
  insecurities a bargain of political power vs
  economic freedom
• Enduring friction shd not be allowed to become
  institutionalized-new leader like PM Badawi wants
  new start, example of IDR-its significance
  durian diplomacy furore over nature of
  consultative committee
• Religious factor complicated by
  terrorism/extremism challenges
• Younger leadershow do they feel/think? Change of
  leadership generations on both sides different
  mindsets
• Economic competition is linked to domestic
  politics opportunities for elite-linked
  business
• Competition between UMNO PAS UMNO cannot allow
  itself to be outflanked by PAS/Anwar
• Lack of Msian acceptance of Spores sovereignty
  was a basic cause of friction
• We are dealing with a certain type of mentality
  dog in manger attitude, a certain lack of
  sophistication

18
Recent Bilat relations with Msia

• Major recent developments include
• Abrogation of Points Of Agreement package
• Crooked bridge vs straight bridgeissue raised in
  Dec 2004 at mtg between PM Badawi SM Goh
  CTtalks contd till Msia decided to cancel
  project in April 2006 Dr. Mahathir was very
  upset, fiercely criticized PM
• IDR initiativelaunched by PM Badawi in
  2007Singapore agreed to participate ministerial
  committee formed anti-Spore views in Johor
• Langkawi informal summit good vibes-durian
  diplomacy
• Land reclamation solved amicably after recourse
  to LOS tribunal
• Remarks by Dr. M in may 2002 We can skin a cat
  in many ways to skin Spore, there is not just
  one method look at underlying message of
  intention of serious competitionsuch criticisms
  are a form of psy-war
• LKY upset neighbors with comments in Sep 2006
  that Chinese had been marginalizedlater
  apologized
• Agreement on joint investments in Third
  countries
• Building Trans-Pen 300 km. oil pipeline across N.
  Malaya (Yan in Kedah to Bachok, Kelantan)with 2
  refineries in Kedah June 07oil industry experts
  were cautious about its prospects for success,
  citing slowing demand in Asia costs
  concerns-US7 bn. Spent over 7 years operational
  by 2011 max capacity of 180m barrels of storage
  6m. Barrels per day through-put it will divert
  20 of oil shipments passing thru Straits of
  Malacca

19
Recent relations with Indonesia

• Relations with Msia cannot be considered in
  isolation because of spillover into
  Indonesia-Islamic/Malay linkages v. brief
  overview
• 1963-73 strained relations with Suharto-Spore
  execution 2 marines
• 1973-1998 till Suharto stepped down, cordial
  relations
• Several bilat problems extradition treaty trade
  stats haze piracy maid abuse sand exports
  perception of Spore as third China presence of
  foreign powers in SEA difference in threat
  perceptions China or Vietnam?
• RI aim of regional leadership by virtue of its
  size population others implicitly accepted
  this opportunity for asean leadership also
  allowed for evolution of structured hegemonic
  stability constrains RI
• Suhartos focus on econ devm god for neighbors
  Spore cd help develop Riau under growth triangle
• Post-Suharto, bilat relations rocky under Habibie
  Gus Dur-they were offended by certain remarks
  about them they resented advice from Spore- we
  must pay attention to Leadership factor in bilat
  ties
• Spore has reputation of econ parasite for its
  role in processing exporting RI raw materials
  acting as haven for Indon Chinese
• Future problems treatment of illegal Indon
  workers dependence on RI natgas no regional
  stability without RI pol stability
• Societies which feel besieged by problems (RI) or
  by neighbors (Spore) tend to be defensive
  prickly

20
Indonesia 2

• Triangulation RI Thailand carefully observe
  M-S bilat relations learn lessons how to
  pressure Spore example Gus Dur said to Msia cut
  off water supplies together to squeeze Spore
  another example was the 1991 RI-Msian joint
  defence exercise in S. Johor
• For strategic reasons, Spore cannot have bad
  relations with all its immediate neighbors at
  same time-no room to manuver-this situation
  occurred in 2006/07 Thailand-Temasek/Thaksin
  Misa-bridge problem RI extradition
  treaty/sand-ban
• Spore depends on Thailand for rice Msia for
  water RI for nat-gas
• With advent of more democracy in RI, more room
  for Indon politicians to criticize Spore one MP
  even named Spore as potential enemy-problems over
  ratification of defence treaty
• Spore has registered limits of Indonesian
  influence abstention at UN over invasion of east
  Timor, whilst supportive of RI sensitivities
  about recognition of PRC-only after RI did so,
  then Spore followed.
• Some Indons may view Spore as Third China in view
  of Chinese majority Speak mandarin campaign SAP
  schools FDI in China
• Different power structure in RI weak Prez SBY
  does not control DPR MPs posturing for electoral
  reasons, using nationalism to delay/reject
  adoption of Defence treatyLKY visit to RI in
  July 07.

21
Asean Charter much depends on Implementation

• For first 40 years of existence, Asean did not
  feel need for charter it proceeded by Asean
  Way-informal consensus consultations so why
  sudden move towards charter?
• What was trigger event? Several factors besides
  40th anniversary
• Need for legal personality Asean was engaged in
  FTA negotiations with several partners, in WTO,
  in UN, amongst members eg. On trans-border haze
  pollution, cooperation- in legal terms, an Asean
  Charter would clarify Aseans intl legal status,
  in domestic law it will set out aims, functions
  and competence of Asean as an intl organization
  and include provisions to address concerns about
  member-state sovereigntyTrigger event Bali 2
  Summit(which stated aim to create Three Asean
  communities) Vientiane Action Plan on closer
  Asean integration-both stressed need for asean
  legal status Also Mr Ong KY, Asean SecGen,
  pressed for charter-need for legal personality
  during negotiations.
• There was a need for dispute settlement mechanism
  for enforcing compliancewith setting up Asean
  economic community if principles Values are
  laid down in Charter are violated eg. By
  Myanmar- compliance easier. Although no sanctions
  like expulsion were agreed.Charter wd envision
  the mechanism for economic integration include
  provisions for dispute settlement of econ/trade
  disputes
• See booklet published by Iseas Framing the Asean
  Charter

22
Charters Impact upon Singapore

• Much depends on how strong charter is on how it
  is implemented
• We can have a Strong charter-strongly
  implemented-very unlikely as some members have
  tried to water down
• We can have weak charter weakly implemented or
  ignored totally-most likely scenario
• Singapore is a full law-abiding state shd have
  no problems abiding by charter its good for us
  as we are the biggest investor and trader within
  Asean, so if there is a strong dispute settlement
  mechanism, we welcomeit
• Insofar as charter raises Aseans reputation in
  intl circles, this is also good for Spore
• Aseans weakness has always been weak
  implementation-but not for us-so if it helps
  improve Asean implementation-we welcome it.
• Charter will not create miracles-as always, much
  depends on members State capacity-we are strong
  in this Governance issues.
• Following 6 slides from World bank show how
  various Asean members stand on different criteria

23
(No Transcript)
24
Rich Family in poor Asean Kampong

• Indian PM Manmohan Singh May 2007 CII speech
  bewareexcessive wealth flaunting can breed
  discontentrich-poor gap widening
• How to manage rising expectations of help from
  Spore? How to convince neighbors that Spore is an
  asset?
• Rumblings against Spore can be expected to
  continue
• Whilst attention focused on Spore, bigger
  problems facing Asean China, growing at 11, and
  India, growing at 9
• Lack of Asean unity means China can pick off one
  by one, eg. Vietnam-fishing boats fired upon in
  July 07.

25
If Singapore can be towed away, what would the
neighbours really say?
MALAYSIA
THAILAND
INDONESIA
GOOD RIDDANCE! DONT COME BACK
GOOD BYE ! CAN WE HAVE YOUR SITE ?
Smile! Mai pen rai
26
Faint Signals How They were Missed

• Declining FDI shows Asean is slipping behind
  India China
• Natural disasters becoming frequent
• People becoming more vocal about their needs
  anti-corruption, jobs, environment problems,
  social issues
• All these are faint signals showing Governments
  the need to resolve such problems-as in
  Pakistan-or else problems become much bigger.
  Msia DPM Najib statement in July 2007, that Msia
  is an Islamic State-is this the beginning of a
  slippery slope, like when Pakistan started
  Islamization under PM Z. Bhutto

• In the bookHow Countries Compete, by R.Vietor
  on p.271, he stated Because of globalization,
  countries now compete to develop, in exports,
  investments, education, productivity, resources
  and defence. In this global competition, govt
  competence is key it is the pursuit of a
  national strategy by the organization of a State
  that makes countries great or failures.
• The 10 keys are1. Basic property rights2. Sound
  macro-economic policies3. Savings investments
  promotion4.Strong central Bank5. Liberalization
  programs6.Labor market flexibility7. Avoid
  resource curse or Dutch disease8. Avoid/minimize
  corruption social inequalities9. Attract
  foreign talents 10. Promote Innovation,
  creativity and enterprise.

27
Challenges and Responses

• If Asean continues to stagger along, Spore should
  think of being helpful in governance,
  investments, aid
• If Asean continues to weaken, enlarge the group
  look at APT or EAS for economic space political
  support
• But playing the game within Asean is different
  from playing the Game with Asian Great Powers.
• What if the intra-Asean Game clashes with the
  Asian Power Game? Different affiliations,
  different world views
• Domestically, how to ensure the people have the
  toughness, how the next sets of leaders have the
  wisdom, experience, vision?

28
Is Asean Like Japan?

• Japan is debating internally about its future,
  what to do about China, how to structure its
  relations with USA, how to play a regional role,
  its self-identity
• In these respects, Asean is also thinking about
  similar issues we should thus examine the
  Japanese debate to find clues for us
• In R. Samuels book Securing Japan, (Cornell
  U. Press, 2007), Japans approaches are described
  in the following ways
• Japan shd adopt policies suited to being a Middle
  Power like Goldilocks,Japans relations with US
  China shd be neither too hot or too cold, that
  its regional posture be not too small nor too
  biglike Asean?
• Asianism is a regional identity that Japan shd
  take lead in building Asean?
• This includes building an Asian Renaissance with
  Asian values Aseans role
• One view argues that if US is indispensable
  global cop, Japan is global merchant (what role
  for Asean middle-man?)
• K. Masatakas ideas Japan shd be
  maritime/mercantile/middle powerwhat about
  Asean?
• Great powers will use force to achieve national
  interestsJapan must never threaten its
  neighbors-which are now equally powerful-like
  Asean
• Given our closeness to both US Japan, this
  internal debate shd interest Asean cause it to
  analyse the ideas shd Asean be a maritime
  mercantile middle power can we? should we?

29
Conclusions

• Bilat relations are mix of competition important
  thing is to increase amount of cooperationKhazana
  h bought shares in Spores MobileOne whilst
  Temasek bought into Telekom Msia
• Where we cannot agree, we shd accept this as
  normal do so with civilized attitudes more
  projects ahead pragmatic acceptance there will
  always be differences
• Adopt live let live your system is good for
  your conditions-we understand in turn, pls
  accept our way is appropriate for our
  circumstances accept the differences in Visions
  multi-racialism meritocracy for us
  bumi-policies for Msia
• Leadership changes can make a differencemindsets
• We shd show political will for cooperation,
  within limits of national interests respect for
  sovereignty
• If the problems were so simple, they wd not have
  been inherited
• Asean framework, youth exchanges ministerial
  officials visits external threats all these
  promote cooperation
• Dealing with the conciliatory sophisticated PM
  Badawi may be much more difficult than dealing
  with Dr. Mahathir, who usually lost intl public
  opinion by his ranting outburst-self-destruct.

30
Conclusions 2

• The full potential of both sides wd be better
  realized rise even higher with cooperation
• There is so much work challenges in building
  the Asean Asian communities (APT EAS) so both
  shd really cooperate, together with Indonesia-in
  Asean-in drivers seat for regional cooperation
• New technologies bring solutions-like Newater-to
  old problems-like water supplies
• We shd try to understand the others problems
  perspectives-like domestic pressures their
  failure becomes our challenge also
• Problems issues take time to resolve, but with
  political will, wise leadership, vision, they can
  be resolved economic integration needs a
  positive sum approach, not a zero-sum mentality
  resort to intl law/ICJ is good sign of maturity
  instead of resort to use of force like resort to
  LOS Tribunal over land reclamation-settled in Jan
  2005
• Will Spore ever rejoin Msia-an idea suggested by
  LKY in June 1996, in circumstances when our
  economy faltered if msia ended its bumiputra
  policy Dr. Tony Tan said that Sporeans rejected
  this idea, feeling strongly that Spore shd be
  meritocratic multi-racial

31
Conclusions 3

• FM Jayakumar stated in Parliament on 14-3-03 M/s
  relations are like yoyo-goes up and down But the
  areas of agreement are always greater than the
  areas of disagreement. A sound approach is to try
  get beyond our disagreements focus on
  long-term relations
• Once, both sides were part of a Malayan
  Society-1940s/50s that has now gone as younger
  generations of both states now grow up separate
  ignorant mutually better to aim to create Asean
  society
• Long term trends of insecurities on both
  sides-Spore is constantly insecure due to its
  vulnerable position Msia became more insecure
  after Asian Financial crisis ringgit affected,
  FDI decreased GLCs failed Opposition stock
  rose, UMNO declined bashing Spore was one way to
  counter PAS assertion of fighting for Islam,
  without political costs
• Arms race CIA estimates Spore spends US5 bn on
  arms whilst Msia spends US1.7 bn per year
  parallel purchases subs, attack helicopters
• Spore has become an Object of hatred, esp in
  Johor-deeply felt
• An imploding Indonesia, with exodus of desperate
  econ refugees may pose common security challenges
  for M/S

32
Questions to Ponder

• 1. Spore is so competent in many aspects of its
  foreign policy why is it its relations with Msia
  are so difficult?
• Ans Partly because its a two-sided
  relationship if the other side does not wish to
  play ball, not much can be done unless we wish to
  capitulate on their terms.
• 2. Why cant the water issue be resolved?
• Ans Partly because its a matter of price and
  its one area where Msia feels they can pressure
  us. Once Spore admitted the principle of paying
  more for water and showed willingness to discuss
  price, then the door to very high prices (RM8)
  was opened
• 3. Can/does Msia cause us damage by circulating
  negative anti-Spore stories in OIC/NAM countries?
• Ans Yes, for instance on water issues we look
  cheap.
• 4. When can we expect bilat relations to really
  improve?
• Ans by the fourth generation, when the sons of
  First generation have retired(Lee HL Syed H
  Albar Najib)

33
Before and After Attending this Talk Feeling
good or brain-damaged?