Challenging notions of free


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Challenging notions of free

• BookNet Canada Tech Forum
• Brian OLeary
• March 12 2009

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Free is not new

• A long and successful history
• Galleys ARCs blads sample chapters
• Digital sampling on the rise
• but only a small set of experiments using fully
  free content

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Why look at this topic now
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Our research approach

• Collate experiments
• Segment attributes
• Identify data gaps

• Use a consistent data source (POS feeds)
• Measure pre- and post-release

• Populate a structured matrix
• Look at combined results

• Initial impact of free
• Initial take on the impact of pirated content

• Share the initial analysis
• Invite discussion
• Grow the test sample

The research is data-driven open (without
compromising publisher data) and structured to
share knowledge.
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A value in structured testing

• A robust set of variables
• Appropriate segmentation
• Captures content characteristics
• Can collate like experiments
• Can develop and test specific hypotheses and
  track results over time

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Primary research findings

• The value of free is not binary
• P2P threat may be overstated
• Low incidence
• Significant lag
• Technical skills are not commonly held

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Proposing a more nuanced model
White market
Gray market
Back channel

• Print sales
• DRM-protected digital sales
• Trialware

• Unprotected digital sales
• Galleys ARCs
• Free promotions

• Unauthorized duplication
• Pirated content

Our current question what impact does free
have on sales
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What we tested
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What we found
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Primary research findings

• The value of free is not binary
• P2P threat may be overstated
• Low incidence
• Significant lag
• Technical skills are not commonly held

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The number of seeds peaks quickly
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The number of leeches peaks immediately and
quickly declines
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Lag time before seeding varies
Average 20 weeks
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Some research surprises

• Number and range of under the radar free
  experiments available for analysis
• Strong interest among trade publishers
• Low volume of P2P incidence
• Lag time on P2P seeding

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Three useful cautions

• Correlation isnt causality
• Larger data sets may uncover a sample skew
• What works today may not work as well at some
  future date

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Next steps

• Additional tests are in work now
• We continue to monitor P2P activity
• More publishers can help fill in the test matrix
• Now gathering feedback
• Will continue to refine the analysis

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For more information

• Rough Cut research paper coming soon
• Includes research covered here
• Also provides background on free and P2P
• E-mail alert http//toc.oreilly.com/reports/p2p/
• brian.oleary_at_magellanmediapartners.com