Climate variability, adaptive management, and the USGS Priority Ecosystem Studies

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Climate variability, adaptive management, and
the USGS Priority Ecosystem Studies Robert B.
Swanson, Director USGS Nebraska Water Science
Center October 25, 2007 http//ne.water.usgs.gov/p
latte/index.html
U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological
Survey
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Global change studies have a history with the
USGS.
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Dealing with complex ecosystems and global issues
  is not new
• Adaptive management of terrestrial and aquatic
  systems is not new
• USGS is uniquely qualified among Federal agencies
  to study global processes

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USGS Priority Ecosystem Studies
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
Intensive investigations of sensitive and key
ecosystems
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Multi-Disciplinary Approach
Plant communities Remote sensing, ground
truthing, plots. Bird animals Field census,
aerial counts. Geologic framework
geomorphology Water Monitoring,
historical/geologic records MODELING!
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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
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USGS Priority Ecosystem Studies
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Greater Everglades
• Chesapeake Bay
• San Francisco Bay and Delta
• Mojave Desert
• Yellowstone
• Platte River

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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
Yellowstone
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Climate Change Science
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
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IMPACTS ON TERRESTRIAL AND COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS,
WETLANDS, FISH, AND WILDLIFE
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Bird and habitat interactions
• Potential changes in arid and semiarid ecosystems
  with changes in climate, management of resources,
  and uses
• Coastal and interior wetland ecosystems
• Sensitive species and island ecosystems
• Watershed biogeochemistry and
• Regional ecosystem responses to climatic change
  in and among mountain systems.

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Adaptive Management
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
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An iterative application of learning by doing
and then adapting what you do based on what you
learn
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• -Ken Williams

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Why Adaptive Management?
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Offers a decision construct for complex issues
  under context of uncertainty
• Allows for continued natural resource monitoring
  and adjustment of management strategies
• Identify clear objectives, explore alternative
  approached to meet objectives
• It is the Department of the Interior way

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PES Mission States
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• The mission of Priority Ecosystem Science is to
  provide science in support of adaptive management
  of ecosystems that have near-term societal
  concern and significant long-term societal
  value..

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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
The Platte Study

• Began in 1997 concurrent with the initiation of
  the 3-state agreement with Colorado, Wyoming,
  Nebraska, and the DOI
• The Critical Habitat
• 100 miles of braided riverine landscape.
• From Lexington to Chapman

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Platte PES is global
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Study Goals
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Understand migratory and resident wildlife and
  the ecology of their habitats
• Understand the physical processes that influence
  the habitats
• Evaluate the effects of different management
  strategies on individual species and their
  habitats

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Study Goals
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Gather baseline information to help guide habitat
  restoration the Platte River Recovery Program
  Implementation Agreement signed by Colorado,
  Wyoming, Nebraska, and the Department of Interior
  in 2006.

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Partners
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Ecological
  Services, Division of Migratory Bird Management
• Playa Lake Joint Venture
• Central Flyway Council
• Platte River Whooping Crane Maintenance Trust
• Audubon
• International Crane Foundation
• Wildlife Management Institute
• Nebraska Game and Parks Commission
• Texas Parks and Wildlife Division
• North Dakota Game and Fish Department

• Oklahoma Division of Wildlife Conservation
• New Mexico Department of Game and Fish
• Ducks Unlimited Kansas
• Colorado
• Montana
• Wyoming
• University of Nebraska
• University of Kansas
• University of Illinois
• NASA

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The Primary Issue
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• The degradation of river channel and wet meadow
  habitats that are vital to Central Flyway
  migratory waterbird populations including
• several threatened and endangered species
• Whooping crane
• Least tern
• Piping plover
• 500,000 sandhill cranes of the midcontinental
  population
• Millions of ducks, geese and other migratory
  waterfowl

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PR PES Research A Tale of Two Cranes
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Cranes are arguably the oldest birds on the
  continent.
• Sandhill cranes are the most numerous of the
  crane species.
• Whooping cranes are the least numerous.
• Sandhill cranes are surrogates for whooping
  cranes.
• Both nervous birds subject to disturbance.
• Both use Platte to rest and build body mass.

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Sandhill Crane Research
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Determine population size and geospatial range.
• Determine habitat preferences.
• Document dietary and life cycle characteristics.
• Determine trends in health of the population.

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Global Tracking of Migratory Species
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Platte River Staging Intervals for 179 VHF
Transmitter-Marked Sandhill Cranes in Relation
to MBMO Population Surveys
2005 n42
2004 n61
2003 n25
2002 n35
2001 n16
3 Apr
4 Mar
27 Feb
9 Mar
8 Apr
22 Feb
13 Apr
14 Mar
19 Mar
24 Mar
29 Mar
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Thermal Videography
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Roosting density higher than previously
  documented
• May indicate that FWS population estimates are
  low

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Changes in Roost Locations Relative to Streamflow
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LiDAR
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Light Detection and Ranging

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EAARL LiDAR

• Bathymetric LiDAR
• Experimental Advanced Airborne Research

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Habitat LiDAR
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Habitat LiDAR
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Example Tiles Ground Returns
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Example Tiles All Returns
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Geomorphic Monitoring of Habitat Enhancement
Sites
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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Land is acquired
• Trees and vegetation removed
• Old channels are reconnected to the river.

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Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System
(MD_SWMS)
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Pre- and post-processing application for
  computational models of surface-water hydraulics
• Flexible and generic, easily incorporating new
  models and avoiding the necessity of writing a
  new GUI for each modeling application
• Handles particle transport

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New Tools
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
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Geomorphology and Sediment Transport
Laboratory Building a physical Platte River
model
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Geophysical Surveys
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
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CONTACT INFORMATIONUSGS Central Region
Environmental Fluid Dynamics Group
(EFDG)Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center
(MCGSC)Nebraska Water Science Center
(NEWSC)Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
(NPWRC) http//ne.water.usgs.gov
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
Robert Swanson Nebraska Water Science
Center Jonathan M. NelsonUSGS Geomorphology
and Sediment Transport Laboratory 
Michael J. StarbuckUSGS Central Region
Geospatial Information Office Dennis G.
JordeUSGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research
Center
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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
Planned Products

• Monograph on a sandhill crane staging ecology.
• Journal article on the influence of river stage
  and channel morphology on sandhill crane roosting
  habitat.
• Journal article on laboratory experiments related
  to effects of hydrograph manipulations on
  barforms.
• USGS SIR on monitoring effects of sediment
  augmentation at habitat enhancement sites.

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Central RegionDrylands Ecosystem Breakout Group
Primary science question How will dryland
ecosystems respond to projected changes in
climate and human activity in terms of
Plants Animals Geologic
substrates Water
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Research topics consumers

• Plants
• Exotic species, productivity.
• Animals
• Assemblages, migration, range.
• Geologic substrate
• Soil, dust, trace elements, erosion, sediment
  transport.
• Water
• Supply (quality, quantity), habitats.
• Consumers
• Land managers, agriculture,
• Development, population centers

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Approaches - temporal scale

• Future
• 1. Forecasting models.
• Recent
• Measured.
• Historic (200 yrs).
• Geologic past
• Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period.
• Younger Dryas (11-13 kyrs BP).
• Glacial-interglacial cycles.

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Approaches FY08

• Mine existing data
• Remote sensing.
• Long-term vegetation plots.
• Stream flow, lake levels.
• Ground-water levels.
• Animal populations.
• Identify targets for FY09
• Research topics
• Locations
• Systematic approach
• Transects (N-S, E-W, elevation).
• Across climate gradients.

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Northern Great Plains
Upper Colorado River Basin
Desert Southwest
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• Analysis of performances (1985-present).
• Greenhouse gas flux in catchments.
• Define changing hydrologic functions.

• Plant populations vs geologic substrates.
• Soil properties vs climate parameters.
• Map vegetation baselines.

• Wind erosion vulnerability.
• Dust flux and chemical composition.
• Map depth to ground water.

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Central RegionDrylands Ecosystem Breakout Group

• Relevant existing USGS programs
• Regional DOI Landscape, ILM
• Water - NAWQA, NSIP
• Geology LRS, NCGMP, ESD
• Biology BRD Ecosystem
• Geography GAM
• Multiple PES

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Central RegionDrylands Ecosystem Breakout Group

• Benefits
• Better management of resources (land, water).
• Protection of RTE species.
• Baselines allow more effective monitoring
  modeling.
• Delivery of fresh clean water in arid
  environments.
• Better understanding of sustainability.

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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
1951 1998
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Current Role of Central Platte River Valley in
Fat Storage
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Historically used wet meadows.
• Invertebrates for protein.
• Snails for calcium for egg production
• Roots

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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop
Products

• Abstracts and proceedings-22
• Journal articles-11
• Book chapters-1
• magazine articles-2
• Professional Papers-1
• Scientific Investigations Reports-1
• Fact Sheets-3
• Open-File Reports-6

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Sediment is moved from high islands and deposited
in flow.
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Preliminary Conclusions

• Few Sandhill Cranes over fly the CPRV and NPRV in
  spring .
• Cranes travel much further than traditional
  banding information indicates.
• Cranes are leaving earlier with less body fat.
• FWS spring survey in some years misses large
  numbers of MCP sandhill cranes present in CPRV.

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Understand the Hydrology Understand the Key
Species

• Historical spring flush maintains the
  geomorphology of the channel
• Geology determines the GW/SW interaction
• GW and SW Relationship ? wet meadows
• Wet meadow?migratory bird habitat
• Seven-year drought was a signature event
• What once was a water availability issue is now
  overshadowed by invasive species

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The Importance of Being Corn
UNL-USGS Climate Workshop

• Soybeans second most cultivated crop, but no
  soybeans found in cranes, geese, or pintail ducks
  in 1998-1999.
• Better harvesting efficiency means less waste in
  fields.

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UNL-USGS Climate Workshop