Human Population Growth

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THE HUMAN POPULATION
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Projecting Future Pop. s

• Malthus - said human growth rate could exceed
  carrying capacity
• Disease, war, famine
• End of 21st century
• peak _at_ 11-12 billion

• Zero Population Growth

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• 10,700 babies/hour

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Predicting Population Changes using Age Structure
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Age Structure of Countries

• Groups with large pre-reproductive age groups
• Strong Pop. Growth Momentum
• By 2020, 85 of worlds population will live
  in developing countries

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Comparing Age Structure
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Pyramid Age Structure

• gt people are at/near child-bearing

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Pyramid Age Structure

• This can cause an gt population size even at the
  RFR 2.1 (bgtd)
• Today, 50 of women are at c-b age. 32 are
  younger--rapid growth
• In Africa, 46 of women are less than 15 -- huge
  growth in the future

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Rectangular Age Structure

• Z P G

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Inverted Pyramid Age Structure

• Not enough reproductive women to replace lost
  individuals.

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Inverted Pyramid Age Structure

• Not enough reproductive women to replace lost
  individuals.
• gt population is in the post-reproductive phase
• Population will decrease even if TFR 2.1
• ex. Germany, Japan

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Immigration and Emigration

• Only 1 of annual pop. growth in developing
  countries is absorbed by developed countries
• Greatest effect on growth rates is fertility
  death rates

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Demographics of Countries

• Demographics applied science dealing with
  population numbers
• Developed Countries (Industrial)
• Developing Countries
• Moderately Developed
• Less Developed

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Developed Countries

• Highly Industrialized
• Lowest birthrates
• Lowest Infant Mortality
• Longest Life Spans
• Highest average GNPs

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Moderately Developed Countries

• Medium-level of Industrialization
• Higher birthrates
• Higher Infant Mortality Rates
• Shorter Life Expectancies
• Lower average GNPs

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Less Developed Country

• Agricultural - low industry
• Highest birthrates
• Highest Infant Mortality
• Shortest Life Spans
• Lowest average GNPs

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How Does Industrialization Affect Population Size?

• The
• Demographic
• Transition

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Life Expectancy

• How long a newborn can expect to live
• Infant Mortality Rate number of babies
  per 1000 that dont make it to their 1st
  yr
• reflect quality of life

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1996 Infant Mortality Rates
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• Average Crude Birth Crude Death Rates

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Stage 1 Pre-Industrial

• High birth rate (high IMR)
• High death rate
• Low pop growth

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Stage 2 Transitional

• Industrialization
• gtfood availability
• gtHealth care
• Birth rate stays high
• Death rate begins to fall
• Pop grows quickly

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Stage 3 Industrial

• Birth rate falls to near death rate
• better jobs and education for women
• Decline in IMR
• Pop growth rate continues, but is low

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Stage 4 Post-Industrial

• Birth rate falls more
• birth rate death rate
• ZPG

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Stage 4 Post-Industrial

• Then, birth rate declines more less than death
  rate, negative pop growth
• Unsustainability to sustainability
• Very few countries have made it here