Control Conjunto de los Contaminantes del Aire Urbanos y de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero en la Ciudad de Mexico

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Future Air Quality in Representative
Concentration Pathway Scenarios Relationships
Between Economic Wellbeing and Air Quality
J. Jason West Steven J. Smith, Joint Global
Change Research Institute Louisa Emmons,
NCAR Larry W. Horowitz, GFDL The UNC Climate,
Health and Air Quality Lab
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What Will Future Air Quality Be?

• The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
  (SRES, 2000) projected high growth of air
  pollutant emissions, in future scenarios.
• Modeled monthly mean ozone increase in 2100
  (SRES A2 scenario), relative to 2000 average of
  10 global models (Prather et al., 2003).

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Will A Richer World Put Up With Air Pollution?

• Environmental Kuznets Curves Richer countries
  are expected to be more willing to devote
  resources for environmental protection

Environmental Impact
Income per Capita
Ausubel and Waggoner, 2009
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• Integrated Assessment Models assume that emission
  controls increase with income.
• However, pollutant concentrations, should be more
  closely related to incomes.

Smith et al., 2009
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Objective

• Evaluate one RCP scenario for its consistency
  across regions in terms of air quality, by using
  a global chemical transport model in the scenario
  development process.
• Analyze the relationships between income and air
  quality, rather than emissions controls.
• Use an iterative process of creating scenario and
  simulating global air quality.
• New scenarios for use in IPCC AR5
  Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
  Scenarios
• Use MOZART (versions 2 and 4) for global
  simulations of future air quality.

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RCP Scenarios
RCP scenarios named for their radiative forcings
in 2100.
RCP8.5 gt8.5 W/m2 in 2100, Rising MESSAGE model, IIASA, Austria RCP6 6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 Stabilization without exceeding target AIM model, NIES, Japan
RCP4.5 4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 Stabilization without exceeding target MiniCAM model, PNNL, USA RCP3-PD lt3 W/m2 in 2100 peak decline stabilization IMAGE model, PBL, Netherlands

• We will use MOZART to model the RCP4.5 scenario.

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MOZART-2 setup

• MOZART-2 is used to model RCP4.5 scenario in
  2005, 2050 and 2095, based on gridded emissions
  outputs of MiniCAM.
• Resolution T42, 2.8x2.8 with 34 vertical
  levels.
• Meteorology MACCM3 simulated global meteorology
  for the present.
• VOC speciation from POET global emissions.
• Seasonal distributions of emissions from RETRO
  global emissions.
• Natural emissions from base MOZART-2 simulation
  (Horowitz et al., 2003).
• PM2.5 SO4 NO3 NH4 EC OCx1.5
• Methane is fixed globally at estimated future
  concentrations.
• This version of MOZART-2 has been evaluated
  extensively against measurements, but not for
  these base emissions.

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Results Second IterationAnnual average PM2.5
2005
2095
2050
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World Regions
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Results PM2.5 by region

• Mean PM2.5 for the consecutive 3 month period
  with highest PM2.5 in each region.

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Results Second Iteration Annual average ozone
2005
2095
2050
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Results Ozone by region

• Mean ozone for the consecutive 3 month period
  with highest ozone in each region.

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Preliminary Conclusions

• Weve shown how atmospheric modeling can be used
  in the scenario development process.
• By adjusting emission controls, future PM2.5
  concentrations were made to yield reasonably
  consistent relationships with projected future
  incomes, among world regions.
• Ozone was found to be harder to adjust using a
  regions own emission controls, because of the
  influence of background and foreign sources.

Next Steps

• Convert to MOZART-4 and evaluate model against
  measurements for base emissions.
• Simulate final RCP4.5 scenario, and other RCP
  scenarios.
• Evaluate simulating under future climate
  conditions.