The Housing Market Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professo

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The Housing Market Outlook Stephen S.
Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and
University ProfessorDirector, Center for
Regional Analysis George Mason University
NVAR 2008 Economic Summit

September 11, 2008
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The U.S. Economy
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Housing TrendsNew Existing Home Sales
(000s)
(000s)
Existing (left scale)
New (Rt Scale)
4
Initial Unemployment Claims
Thousands
(4-week moving average)
350
5
Annual Change in Jobs - US
THOUSANDS
Aug - .40 Mil

Source BLS Establishment Survey
6
Consumer Confidence
Present Situation
100
Expectations
Source Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
7
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg
Mfg
8
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change
2006 2009

Forecast

2006 2007 2008
2009
Source Global Insight
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The Washington Economy
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GDP/GRP 2000 - 2011

Washington Metro
U.S.
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 07 July 08
Thousands
Washington 35,400
Ranked by Total Jobs
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Annual Job ChangeWashington Metro Area
000s
Annual Change Annual
Month-over-the-Year
2007
2008

Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
000s
Annual Change Annual
Month-over-the-Year
2007
2008
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment
RateJuly 2008

U.S. 6.0
4.1
Data not seasonally adjusted
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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The Northern Virginia Housing Market
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Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA,
August Each Year
1000s
Listings
Sales
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Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year
PW
LDN
FFX
ARL ALX
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Units Sold Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll
Housing Types

2007 2008
PW
NVA
LDN
FFX
Arl
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Total Units SoldNorthern VirginiaJan - Aug Each
Year
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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New Housing Sales Washington Metro Area First
Half of Each Year
Source Hanley-Wood, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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New Housing Contract Kick-Out RateWashington MSA
All Housing Types

2006
2007
2008
Source Hanley-Wood, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County April 30,
2008
Foreclosures /10,000 units
Source RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNVARSingle
Family Detached

Annual Change Annual Change by Month in
2008
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNVARSingle
Family Attached-TH

Annual Change Annual Change by Month in
2008
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNVARCondo

Annual Change Annual Change by Month in
2008
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Virginia Housing Market Existing Units 2nd
Quarter 2008 vs. 2nd Quarter 2007
Source VAR Multiple Listing Services, GMU Center
for Regional Analysis
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THE OUTLOOK

• Housing Market Continuing to Adjust
• Sub-Prime Mortgages Resets Ending Next Several
  Months
• ARMS Will Continue Longer
• Underlying Economic Fundamentals are Good
• Federal Policy Effects?
• Recovering Slowly Beginning Q2 2009??

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