The Effects of Extreme Events, Understanding Recovery, and the Role of Evacuation in the Great Schem

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The Effects of Extreme Events, Understanding
Recovery, and the Role of Evacuation in the Great
Scheme of Things

• Daniel J. Alesch, Ph.D.
• Emeritus Professor
• University of Wisconsin-Green Bay

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Weve Been Documenting the Consequences of
Extreme Events and Community Recovery Processes

• About 30 communities of all sizes in eight
  states.
• Flood, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, wildfire.
• Multiple visits to communities over 12 years.
• Documenting recovery both longitudinally and
  cross-sectionally.
• Cumulatively, far more than a year on the road

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• From Sea to Shining Sea
• From the Redwood Forest to the Gulf Stream Waters
  . . .
• (These data were made for you and me.)

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• Our intent is to try to understand what happens
  to communities following extreme events.
• That is enabling us to look at what can be done
  to reduce dysfunctional consequences.
• And, it helps us understand how to facilitate
  community recovery.
• We think this is an important role for higher
  education.

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CONCEPTUALIZING COMMUNITIES, CONSEQUENCES, AND
RECOVERY

• We see communities as complex, dynamic,
  self-organizing, open systems.
• They are changing continually, usually at the
  margin.
• An extreme event is a serious perturbation to the
  system.
• It disrupts relationships within the system and
  with important outside elements.

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Event, given exposure and vulnerability
Figure 1. Relationships Among the Consequences of
Extreme Events.
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Event, given exposure and vulnerability

The Community
that Experiences the Extreme Event
Direct Consequences to the Built Environment
Immediately Following Consequences For Life and
Property
Figure 1. Relationships Among the Consequences of
Extreme Events.
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Event, given exposure and vulnerability

The Community
that Experiences the Extreme Event
Direct Consequences to the Built Environment
Systemic Community Consequences
Immediately Following Consequences For Life and
Property
Figure 2. Relationships Among the Consequences of
Extreme Events.
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The Outside World
Event, given exposure and vulnerability
Ripple Consequences

The Community
that Experiences the Extreme Event
Systemic Community Consequences
Direct Consequences (Type A)
Direct Consequences (Type B)
Figure 2. Relationships Among the Consequences of
Extreme Events.
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The Outside World
Event, given exposure and vulnerability
Ripple Consequences

The Community
that Experiences the Extreme Event
Systemic Community Consequences
Ripple Reverberation Consequences
Direct Consequences (Type A)
Direct Consequences (Type B)
Figure 2. Relationships Among the Consequences of
Extreme Events.
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How can we avoid the dysfunctional effects of
extreme events?

• Reduce the likelihood of the event or reduce the
  severity of the event
• Reduce exposure
• Dont build in dangerous places
• Reduce vulnerability
• Robustness
• Redundancy
• Rapid Repair or Replacement

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The real benefit of hazard mitigation is that it

• reduces the effects of extreme events on
  communities
• reduces the need for extraordinary measures (like
  evacuation) to help people survive
• and makes recovery so much simpler.

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How does evacuation fit into the big scheme of
things?

• Evacuation is an important tool when mitigation
  is inadequate to reduce exposure and
  vulnerability.
• Evacuation reduces the time and energy required
  to rescue survivors and recover bodies.
• Evacuation reduces the complexity of providing
  emergency services to those who survive the
  extreme event.
• Evacuation contributes to recovery by reducing
  injuries, loss of life, and familial disruptions.

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Lets take a look at how recovery occurs
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An implicit view of recovery processes

• After the dust settles, relationships have been
  ruptured or changed.
• Needs and priorities change.
• The system doesnt bounce back to what was it
  re-forms.
• individual elements decide what to do, how to
  do it, and where to do it following the event.
• It may re-form a lot like the pre-event system,
  but does not have to.

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Recovery conclusions

• If community recovery means reestablishing what
  existed before the event, it almost never
  happens.
• Recovery is neither assured nor automatic.
• There is no recovery timetable.
• For us, recovery is becoming satisfactorily
  viable in the post-event milieu.

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• The real benefits of community hazard mitigation
  are enhanced probabilities of community recovery,
  given an event.
• Replacing, rebuilding structures is necessary,
  but not sufficient for recovery.
• It takes time to repair, rebuild, or replace
  relationships.

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Government usually has to make up-front
investments

• We call it seeding the system.
• No guarantee of success.
• More likely to be successful if the seeds are
  congruent with the climate.
• Recovery almost necessarily involves
  inefficiencies.

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Thank youso very muchfor your very kind
attention.
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