Internal Migration Flows and Residential Segregation in Northern Ireland: Relations, Motivations and

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Internal Migration Flows and Residential
Segregation in Northern Ireland Relations,
Motivations and Geographical Variations

• Gemma Catney
• PhD Research Student
• Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and
  Research (C-STAR)
• School of Geography, Archaeology and
  Palaeoecology (GAP)
• Queens University, Belfast

3rd International Population Geographies
Conference, Liverpool 2006
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Residential Segregation in Northern Ireland

• Religious residential segregation in NI media
  and academic research
• New academic research pointing towards
  residential segregation as either decreasing or
  staying the same
• However, large geographic variations, with some
  increases in segregation in particular areas, and
  persistence in others
• But why?

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Internal migration in Northern Ireland

• In-situ growth vs. migration
• Simpson (2004), in Urban Studies
• Migration reinforcement, erosion, creation of
  residential segregation?
• How far is community background (area
  composition, etc.) important in migration
  decision-making?
• Under-explored and little understood

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Presentation outline

• Methodology
• Quantitative research
• Migration rates
• GWR
• Qualitative research
• Area selection
• Interviews and focus groups
• Cognitive mapping
• 2 case study areas
• Summary and conclusions

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Methodology
QUANTITATIVE Migration rates Geographically
weighted regression (GWR) SI modelling
DATA SOURCES Census of pop. of NI (2001) Census
grid square data (1971-2001) Residents (movers
and non-movers) Key informants (community reps,
property developers, etc.) Estate agents
QUALITATIVE Semi-structured interviews Focus
groups Cognitive Mapping Participant
observation
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Migration rates
Inflow rate (per 1000 pop.)
Outflow rate (per 1000 pop.)
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Migration by community background
Catholic inflow over total inflow
Catholic outflow over total outflow
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Geographically weighted regression (GWR)
Catholic residential composition against Catholic
inflow, as proportion of total inflow (12km
bandwidth)
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Summary

• Community background potentially very significant
• Suggests reinforcement of residential segregation
  due to migration, in some places
• But, a complex picture

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Qualitative research

• Semi-structured interviews with
• residents of case study areas (movers and
  non-movers)
• key informants property developers, community
  representatives, etc.
• Focus groups (and cognitive mapping exercise)
  with
• residents of case study areas (movers and
  non-movers)
• Also, participant observation with estate
  agencies

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Area selection

• Interviewing in 6 case study areas as a basis for
  understanding case-specific and general processes
  and trends
• Areas controlled for by
• Community background
• Socioeconomic class (including tenure)
• Location (inner city, middle city, suburban and
  near-rural)
• A representative sample according to
  demographic composition of area

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Case study areas

• A transect approach
• South Belfast
• Incorporates 6 areas with aforementioned
  characteristics, plus wider processes
• Suburbanisation and counterurbanisation
• Inner city residualisation
• Inner city gentrification
• Decentralisation of Protestant communities
• Possible life-course characteristics

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Transect South Belfast
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Outline Interviews

• General context
• 2 case study areas
• Middle city mixed area
• Inner city Protestant community
• General / universal trends

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Area 1 Ballynafeigh

• Middle city, mixed community
• 1990s mixed, with a slight Protestant majority
• Present mixed status under-threat, with an
  increasing Catholic majority and decreases in
  Protestants
• Predominantly middle class
• Becoming more affluent
• Development apartment blocks (gentrifying)

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Area 1 Ballynafeigh

• Recruitment Community facilitator and For Sale
  To Let signs
• Recurring themes
• Reputation as a mixed community important
  in-migration of couples in mixed marriages
• Graduates from the two universities (and some
  current students)
• Starter homes for middle classes
• Familiarity either student near by, grew up in
  area, personal contacts
• Perception that it is becoming more Catholic due
  to recent in-migration

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Area 1 Ballynafeigh

• Some cashing in on rising house prices and
  selling up
• Out-migration (actual and hypothetical) tends to
  be to suburbs and rural areas growing families
  wanting more quiet settings, a garden, less
  desire to be so close to the city centre, etc.
• Area choice tends to be
• middle class
• mixed (community background)
• generally would not consider homogenous areas,
  but if would is always the same side - safety

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Area 2 Donegall Pass

• Inner city Protestant (Loyalist) area
• Predominantly working class
• Typical of working class Protestant communities
  under threat, with a loss of population
• Lack of suitable housing (social)
• Decline in services and amenities
• Gentrified from all sides feeling squeezed

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Area 2 Donegall Pass

• Recruitment Community facilitator, focus groups
  and other contacts
• Recurring themes
• For most, want to stay lots of intra-area
  movement
• Substantial out-migration due to shortage of
  suitable housing (Housing Executive)
• Some cashing in on rising house prices and
  selling up (mostly bought through RTB)

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Area 2 Donegall Pass

• But few choose to move if can stay mostly
  movement for space migration a huge event
  Moving was like a death in the familyit was
  really really hardstill is (Protestant female,
  mid-40s)
• Retention of networks and contacts
• Movement tends to be highly segregated
  Protestants in, and movement out to Protestant
  areas same with hypothetical area choice
• Reinforced by those selling homes advice to
  viewers
• Housing Executive area choice both choice and
  offered

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General/ universal trends

• Reasons why move
• Dissatisfaction with current area/ property
• More space
• Garden
• Closer to work
• Closer to sick/ elderly relative
• Health reasons
• Up and out
• Intimidation

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General/ universal trends

• Factors considered when do move/ have moved
• Familiarity family ties, friends, where grew
  up, work, etc.
• Most search few areas and few properties fairly
  fixed ideas about acceptable or not
• Composition of the area (religion/ community
  background) a factor in most individuals
  decisions
• Fear / safety
• Sectarianism

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General/ universal trends

• This may be overt
• Completely Catholic areas. Because, I mean, I
  wouldnt get a chance to live in it (Protestant
  female, 40, Protestant area)
• I dont think we would move into Loyalist
  areasI mean, it stands to sense (Catholic male,
  mid 20s, mixed area)
• Or less direct
• For those claiming religion was not an issue,
  still had firm views about areas to avoid
  mainly highly segregated areas, both Nationalist
  and Loyalist, regardless of the religion of the
  interviewee

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General/ universal trends

• Most tend to consider areas of same type as
  those already in e.g. residents of working
  class areas choose working class areas
  familiarity, horizons, but also more conscious
  the sense of community.
• However, for some, social aspirations come to the
  fore
• Areas selected tended to be similar for
  individuals within each area
• Some forced/ designed segregation role of
  institutions

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Mapping exercise

• Fixed views
• reinforced in the
• mapping
• exercise
• Area perceptions
• and residential
• desirability

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Summary

• Themes which are area/case-specific and general
• Reasons why people move tend to relate to usual
  factors, plus NI effect
• Area selection (real and hypothetical)
• Familiarity
• Similar types, plus some aspirations
• Mixed, or same side
• Potential reinforcement of segregation

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Conclusions

• Mixture of methods has led to a rich tapestry
• Quantitative analysis points to a relationship
  between migration and residential segregation,
  although the picture is complex
• Qualitative research shows that community
  background has a strong influence, although other
  factors are important
• In addition to natural increase (in-situ growth),
  spatial reorganisation of the population is also
  having a major impact on changes in segregation

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Acknowledgements

• My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his
  comments and advice
• The participants in my interviews and focus
  groups
• The community representatives, for their insight,
  and assistance in recruitment
• Department for Employment and Learning (DEL), for
  funding
• Contested Cities, Urban Universities (CU2)
  research team and funding body (European
  Programme Peace 2)