A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Gas Station

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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Gas
Station

• Nowhere to Run
• Or
• Dont Worry, Be Happy

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• The ideas presented here are explored at greater
  depth in
• The Mountain Sentinel (www.mountainsentinel.com)
• www.survivingpeakoil.com
• in the forthcoming book Eating Fossil Fuels,
  due out in fall of 2006 from New Society
  Publishers.

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Peak in 2005?
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OPECs August 2005 Market Report

• non-OPEC production of sweet, light crude dropped
  from 27.06 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2000
  to 23.8 mb/d in 2004, for a net decrease of 3.26
  mb/d. OPEC added 1 mb/d of light, sweet oil
  production over the same period. As a result,
  global sweet light production declined by 2.26
  mb/d from 2000 to 2004.

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Major Declines

• In 2005, all of the oil majors (except BP)
  reported declining extraction rates
• BP is now the worlds largest oil producer.
  Petroleum Review, October 2005

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Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, Iranian energy consultant

• "In my humble opinion, we should now have reached
  'Peak Oil'. So, it is high time to close this
  critical chapter in the history of international
  oil industry and bid the mighty 'Peak'
  farewell... At present, global oil output
  fluctuates around 82 mb/d as some institutions
  try vainly to push 2005 statistics towards 83 and
  84 mb/d (as they always do). But they will be
  obliged to backtrack as 'actual' oil supplies
  fail to follow their 'paper' ones." From Peak Oil
  to Transition One, October 2005

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Colin Campbell, noted petroleum geologist

• the maximum peak of production as far as the
  normal so-called oil has come this year after
  that will be a long decline. Meanwhile, for other
  types of hydrocarbons the peak will occur by
  2010." Petrolio/Campbell In 2005 Produzione,
  Poi Iniziera' Declino. Presentation at Rimini
  conference. Apcom, October 28, 2005.

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Oil Production over TimeJoin Us as We Watch the
Crisis Unfolding February 11th, 2006. Kenneth
S. Deffeyes
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Top 5 Super Giants 20 of World Daily Production
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Iraq - Kirkuk

• Damaged by questionable pumping techniques during
  the embargo
• Damaged by 1st 2nd attacks on Iraq
• Iraq unable to repair damages. The United States
  placed over 80 of the holds on oilfield
  equipment. Benon Sevan, head of UN Iraq program
• Post-invasion production is still down. Attacks
  on infrastructure likely to increase.
• Civil war could compound the damage.

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China Daquig or Daqing

• Has already peaked.
• Production declined by 5 in 2004, another 3
  in 2005.
• Production projected to shrink by 7 per year for
  the next several years.
• PetroChina promises to work hard to slow or halt
  Daquigs decline.

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Kuwait - Burgan

• Chairman of the State oil company recently said
  that Burgan is exhausted.
• Kuwait Oil Company will spend 3 billion annually
  to hold production steady.
• International Energy Agency expects production
  will decline.
• Well fires burned 4-6 mb/d.

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Mexico - Cantarell

• Cantarell accounts for 60 of Mexicos
  production.
• 88 of Mexicos exports go to the US.
• In 2005 PEMEX announced Cantarell had peaked.
• 2005 production down 5 from 2004.
• Production could collapse by 2008.

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Saudi Arabia - Ghawar

• 6.5 of world daily production.
• Recent reports indicate water cutting at 55.
• Aramco is injecting 7 barrels of water to get 1
  barrel of oil.
• Water is present throughout the field.
• Oil column is now 150 feet thick (was originally
  1300 feet thick).

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Efforts to Arrest Decline

• Put in more wells.
• Pump in more water, natural gas or nitrogen.
• Both strategies will boost current production,
  but at the cost of future production.
• Technological innovations lead to a steeper
  decline, or a crash.

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New Discoveries

• No discovery with 1 mb/d capacity since Cantarell
  in 1976.
• Only 26 giant fields discovered since 1980.
• Total production of post-1980 discoveries is 4.5
  of world daily production, or less than 10 of
  the production of all giants.
• 400 fields discovered in 1990s, only 2.5 are
  giants. None have production capacity in the
  range of 200,000 b/d.

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New Discoveries

• Only a few deep sea projects may have a peak
  capacity in the range of 250,000 b/d.
• Only 2 or 3 new Middle Eastern projects might
  fall within this range.
• None of these will come online until 2010 at the
  earliest.
• Recent discoveries tend to be smaller, peak
  sooner, and decline more steeply.

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What Does this Mean for US?
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There are no Technofixes

• Nothing can match fossil fuels for availability,
  energy content, economics or usefulness.
• No combination of alternatives can match fossil
  fuels.
• There is no time left to research ramp up an
  alternative.

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The Hirsch Report

• Prepared by a private firm for the US Department
  of Energy
• A study of peak oil, its implications and
  mitigation.
• The report concluded we will need 20 years to
  prepare for the peak.
• If we do not begin preparations until the peak,
  then it is too late.

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Even if We had the Perfect Technofix Ready
Waiting

• A technofix would only buy us a little time, at
  best.
• Peak oil is only a symptom of the true problem,
  like global warming, pollution, overpopulation,
  ect.

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The Real Problem(The Socio-economic Problem)

• We have a socio-economic system dependent upon
  constant growth and consumption.
• We live on a planet that is finite.

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The Real Problem(The Psychological Problem)

• We view personal reality in a subjective manner.
• We view our environment an objective manner.
• Our conscience is woefully ineffective at reining
  in our ego.

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The Real Problem(The Thermodynamic Problem)

• Entropy the amount of energy in a system that
  can be used to do physical work. The higher the
  entropy, the less energy that is available to do
  work.
• All physical systems move from a state of low
  entropy to a state of high entropy.
• The amount of energy available in a system is
  always less than the total energy of the system.
• Whenever energy changes forms, or is used, a
  portion of it is lost to entropy.

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The Entropy of a System

• The entropy of a system cannot be reduced without
  introducing more energy from outside of the
  system and,
• Producing a proportional increase in entropy
  outside of the system.

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Entropy Life(The Shell Game the Balancing
Act)

• All life is maintained by processing the energy
  available from low entropy systems, while
  depositing higher entropy elsewhere.
• Living beings appear to produce low entropy from
  high entropy, but they are really producing more
  entropy (wastes dissipated heat energy) than
  they take in.

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Yeast

• A Brewers vat full of mash is a low entropy
  environment rich in carbohydrates sugars.
• Yeast feed on this abundant energy multiply.
• Yeast produce high entropy in the form of carbon
  dioxide gas and ethanol.
• When the vat exceeds some critical level of
  entropy, the yeast dies off.
• Some yeast will remain to feed on the little
  remaining low entropy, but the vat will never
  return to its low entropy state without being
  emptied and refilled.

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Humans are Superior Entropy Creators

• All human technology derives products from low
  entropy systems through an increase in displaced
  entropy.
• Our modern civilization produces entropy at a
  prodigious rate.
• This entropy (and our civilization) is currently
  subsidized by abundant, cheap fossil fuels.
• The high entropy is found in landfills,
  environmental degradation, pollution global
  warming.

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The Human Brewing Vat

• Our vat was filled with low entropy fossil fuels.
• We have multiplied our numbers while feeding on
  this mash, and we have produced an abundance of
  material goods.
• We have produced high entropy in the form of
  environmental degradation, garbage, pollution and
  global warming.

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The BIG Question(s)

• How close are we to the critical level of entropy
  in our system?
• Can we slow the production of entropy?
• Can we replace the entropy slide with a
  sustainability treadmill?
• What will happen if we cannot make the transition?

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Sustainability Defined

• Nothing lasts forever.
• Long-lived, stable ecosystems are the best
  examples. Such ecosystems share certain
  characteristics.
• They are maintained by cycles (i.e. water cycle,
  carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle, etc.)
• Nutrients and resources are used at the lowest
  rate possible to maintain the system.
• Everything that can be is recycled.
• Entropy is kept at a minimum, preferably below
  the level of incipient solar energy.

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The Industrial System

• Is linear (resources are processed into food and
  goods, refuse is discarded).
• Exploits nutrients and resources at the highest
  rate possible.
• Very little is recycled.
• Entropy is maximized, is offset by cheap
  abundant fossil fuels.

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Real Solutions

• Replace the dominant industrialized system with a
  sustainable system that will reduce entropy
  production to a minimum.
• Replace the dominant Socio-economic system with a
  more equitable and democratic system that
  incorporates the costs of entropy.
• Grant legal rights to all organisms and
  environments.
• Foster a stronger ethics based upon healthy
  relationships with our fellow human beings and
  our environment.

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A Sustainable, Equitable, Democratic System

• Relocalization.
• Organized from the bottom up.
• Guaranteeing basic rights to sustenance, housing
  and education.
• Replacing the urge-driven consumers of Edward
  Bernays with informed citizens.

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Sustainable

• Consumption must return to the minimum necessary,
  as it was previous to Edward Bernays the advent
  of conspicuous consumption.
• People need to derive their satisfaction not from
  consumption, but from community and personal
  accomplishment.

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Sustainable Agriculture

• Given that animal feed is produced on the same
  farm animal manure is returned to the soil
• The area of balanced agriculture needed to
  sustain 1 person 0.2 hectares (ha) per person,
  with complete recycling of human wastes and
  garbage.
• (1 Hectare 2.471 acres, so 0.2 ha ½ acre)
• Vulnerability in Agriculture Energy Use,
  Structure Energy Futures, Günther, Folke. INES
  Conference, June 2000.

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Persons needed to recycle the nutrients in the
food from the balanced agriculture
http//www.holon.se/folke/
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Simplified Balanced Agricultural
Cyclehttp//www.holon.se/folke/
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Sustainable Agriculture Community Scale

• 40 ha could support 200 people.
• 160-270 ha could support 3 to 4 distributed
  settlements of from 800 to 1,200 people per
  settlement.
• 200,000 ha for a city of 1 million people.
• 1,600,000 ha for New York City

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Sustainable Agriculture National Scale

• US Population 298,444,215 (July 2006 est.).
• Land Area 9,161,923 km2 (1 km2 100 ha).
• Permanent Crops 0.21 or 192,400 km2.
• For present population, balanced agriculture
  would require a minimum of 59,688,800 ha or
  59,688.8 km2 (31 of US permanent cropland).
• (All data from the CIA World Factbook).

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Such a System would be More Economically
Favorable for Consumers Farmers(Even if
production costs increased 30)
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Other Studies

• Folke Günthers model is based on the recycling
  of phosphorus as the limiting factor in
  sustainable agriculture.
• Other reliable studies place the maximum
  population in the US for a sustainable economy at
  around 200 million. The Tightening Conflict
  Population, Energy Use, and the Ecology of
  Agriculture, Giampietro, Mario and Pimentel,
  David. NPG Forum Series, 1995. http//www.npg.org/
  forum_series/tightening_conflict.htm Energy and
  Population, Werbos, Paul J. NPG Forum, 1993?
  http//www.npg.org/forum_series/werbos.html
  Impact of Population Growth on Food Supplies and
  Environment, Pimentel, David, et al. Population
  and Environment, 19 (1) 9-14 1997.

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More Research Needed, No Time Left

• If these other studies are correct, then the US
  population would have to decline by 98,444,215 in
  order to be sustainable.
• The problem with all of these studies is that
  there is no agreement about the variables.
• Sustainability should have long ago been the
  subject of intense exhaustive research.
• We need answers now there is little time left to
  debate.

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An Equitable Democratic Society

• Government business should be organized through
  direct democracy on a local level. Local
  governments should be federated, but all
  federated issues should be brought back to local
  communities for discussion and democratic
  decisions.

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Stewardship

• All ecosystems and species should be granted
  rights equal to citizenship.
• No resource should be harvested unless it can be
  demonstrated that the ecosystem will ultimately
  benefit from this harvest.
• Local communities should control their resources
  and have stewardship over local ecosystems in an
  informed democratic manner.
• If the local community deems that a resource
  should be used, they should award the contract to
  worker-run cooperative.
• Profits of resource harvesting should be
  distributed 1st to the ecosystem, 2nd to the
  local community, and 3rd to the cooperative.

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What Can I Do?
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Personal Survival

• Get out of debt.
• If you are where you want to be can do so, pay
  off your mortgage. If you are not where you want
  to be, or cannot pay off your mortgage, sell your
  house.
• Sell your stocks, bonds mutual funds before the
  market crashes.
• Buy gold silver.
• Rent a place in the area where you want to be.
• Get involved in your local community.
• After the crash, buy a house, preferably without
  a mortgage.

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Where to Go

• If you are living in the country, you will want
  to become an independent farmer.
• If you are living in a wilderness area, you will
  want to become totally independent, and probably
  hide your location as well.
• If you are living in an urban area, you will want
  to organize your community, so you can survive
  with the cooperation of your neighbors.

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Do You Really want to Move?

• You will be the new kid on the block.
• Even in wilderness areas, there are residents who
  will look upon you as the new-comer.
• If you move too far, there will be cultural and
  language differences.
• You may always be the outsider. If things become
  difficult, you may be persecuted.
• If life becomes difficult, communities are not
  going to welcome the displaced.

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Location

• You must decide whether it would be preferable to
  move into a new unknown community, or to help
  organize the community where you are already at
  home.
• Dont ask, Where should I move?
• Ask, Where would I like to live?

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Avoid Projection

• Contrary to the fears of some peakers and
  survivalists, it is highly unlikely that you will
  be preyed upon by your neighbors, and it is
  equally unlikely that the cities will unleash
  hordes of desperate degenerates to pillage the
  countryside.
• Those who believe this are projecting their own
  fears and insecurities onto the world around
  them.
• There might be a rise in crime, or there might
  not. In large part, this depends upon us.

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Why Not?

• During the Great Depression, people helped each
  other.
• During the collapse of the Soviet Union, people
  helped each other.
• Even in North Korea, people helped each other
  (though they were terribly oppressed).

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Argentina

• The people of Argentina were extremely atomized
  and terrorized.
• 10 year dirty war, 30,000 disappeared. All
  public gatherings were illegal, even for sporting
  events.
• Dirty War followed by over a decade of
  privatization, neo-economics and IMF enforced
  austerity programs.

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Argentina Grassroots Efforts

• When the economy finally crashed, Argentines came
  out of their houses to talk to each other.
• They organized democratic Neighborhood
  Assemblies.
• Nodos barter exchanges. Over 2.5 million
  Argentines participated in Nodos.
• Worker Self-Managed Businesses. There are now
  over 200 reoccupied businesses in Argentina.

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12 Fun Activities for Activists

• Community Vegetable Gardens
• Operation Johnny Appleseed
• Food not Bombs
• Farmers Markets CSAs
• Community Transportation Networks
• Bicycle Co-ops Bicycle Trails
• Support Local Businesses, particularly Co-ops

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12 Fun Activities for ActivistsContinued

• Form Co-ops
• Organize Community Activities
• Community Refurbishing Co-ops
• Community Energy Production Co-ops
• Ecovillages

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Conclusion

• Peak Oil is happening right now.
• The dominant socio-economic system is doomed.
• There is still a chance for a grassroots
  transition to a more meaningful socio-economic
  system.
• Most people are still not aware of the problem.
• We must be ready to hand out saws and hammers,
  and offer guidance.

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Thank You for Your Time Your Consideration

• www.mountainsentinel.com
• www.survivingpeakoil.com