Democratization:

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Democratization

• What causes it?

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What is democratization?

• 3 basic components
• 1. ending an authoritarian regime
• 2- installing a democratic regime
• 3- consolidating a democratic regime
• Different causes may be responsible for each of
  these developments.
• (Samuel Huntington)

End of an authoritarian regime capture of Saddam
Hussein, Dec. 2003.
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VARIOUS THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF
DEMOCRATIZATION A Partial List

• High overall level of economic wealth
• Relatively equal distribution of wealth
• A market economy
• Economic development and social modernization

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More theories on the causes of democratization

• A feudal aristocracy at some point in the
  history of the society
• Absence of feudalism in the society
• A strong bourgeoisie
• High levels of literacy and education
• Protestantism
• Low levels of civil violence
• Low levels of political polarization

Does a Protestant ethic lead to democracy? Martin
Luther preaching.
(picture http//web.uvic.ca/shakespeare/Library/S
LT/ideas/protestantism.html)
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Yet more theories on the causes of democratization

• Political leaders committed to democracy
• Experience as a British colony
• Traditions of tolerance and compromise
• Occupation by a pro-democratic foreign power
• Communal homogeneity

Experience as a British colony The British
Colossus, (1892) depicting British expansionist
Cecil Rhodes straddling Britains African
possessions.
Picturehttp//www.madeira-edu.pt/estabensino/ebss
antana/comenius/simbols_of_colonialism.htm
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3 waves of democratization

• 1. 1818-1926 France, Britain, U.S., etc.
• 2- 1943-1965 West Germany, Italy, Austria,
  Japan, Korea, Columbia, Venezuela, etc.
• 3. 1974-1995 (?) Portugal, Greece, Turkey
  (again), Brazil, former East Bloc countries

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The Third Wave What and Who was the 3rd wave?

• about 30 countries with auth systems shifted to
  democratic political systems in the 1970s and
  1980s
• they were
• diverse one-party systems, military regimes,
  personal dictatorships, racial oligarchy (S.
  Africa)
• many were second try democracies leaders
  had learned from previously unsuccessful
  experiences and tried again Spain, Portugal,
  Greece, Poland
• many emerged after 1989 with fall of the USSR

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Explaining the Third Wave key variables

• deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian
  systems in a world where democratic norms
  becoming increasingly accepted
• global economic growth ? expanded middle class
• transformation of churches (especially the
  Catholic Church) from being a defender of the
  status quo to opponents of authoritarianism
• changes in the policies of external actors (i.e.
  new attitude of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S.
  policies)
• snowball effects
• (Samuel Huntington)

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More general explanations Democratic Correlates
Encouraging democracy? Council of Europe flags
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Historical sequences Contestation, then
inclusion ? MUTUAL SECURITY

• Problem it is very difficult today to
  legitimately deny contestation

Cant wait for democracy an Otpor baby in Serbia
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2. Growing wealth that occurs in such a way as to
promote the growth of an educated middle class

• Remember! ECONOMICS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
  DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A PLACE BECOMES
  DEMOCRATIC.
• Most wealthy countries ARE democratic.
• Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a
  dramatic exception.
• Examples of countries with high incomes in the
  1970s that were NOT democratic
• the USSR
• Bulgaria
• Poland
• Hungary, Spain, and Portugal
• S.Arabia, Libya, Kuwait had per capita incomes of
  over 4,000 in the mid 1970s, but they didnt
  become democratic
• Iraq, Iran, and Singapore -- in the 1980s had
  high income and low democracy.
• Why would higher incomes not necessarily bring
  democracy?

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3. Pro-democratic external influences

• Example the European Union

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Words of Advice for would-be democratizers

• mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the
  evidence suggests that guerrilla movements and
  revolutions are NOT good ways to bring about
  democracy, although they may secure liberation)
• seek support from the center, and if necessary,
  the conservative right
• restrain the left and keep them from dominating
  the agenda of the movement
• woo sections of the military
• seek sympathetic support from the media and other
  governments, especially the U.S.
• Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights
  of the opposition

(Myron Weiner, advice based on large-scale
analysis)
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SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CAN BUT DO NOT NECESSARILY
IMPEDE DEMOCRATIZATION

• 1 foreign intervention or support for an
  authoritarian regime
• Examples Iran, Chile
• 2- a highly skewed income
• 3- significant ethnic diversity with a recent
  history of conflict the presence of subcultures
• Note Democracy does exist in countries with
  highly diverse populations i.e. Canada, the
  U.S.
• Another note Problems tend to be worse when
  there are two main groups, one majority and the
  other minority. Multi-cultural countries tend to
  have fewer problems.