Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

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Power Down Options and Actions for a
Post-Carbon WorldBy Richard Heinberg
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The End of Cheap Energy

• The Problem

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The End of Cheap EnergyOil

• A very cheap and convenient energy source.
• Cheaper than bottled water.
• Energy source much of our current infrastructure
  is based upon.
• A resource with a finite supply.

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The End of Cheap EnergyDepletion

• The rate of location of new resources is dropping
  and is under the rate of consumption.
• Rate of location of new oil peaked in US in
  1930s.
• Rate of location of new oil peaked globally in
  the 1970s.

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The End of Cheap EnergyDropping Production

• United States production peaked in 1960s.
• Global oil production will hit peak soon, with
  estimates ranging from now to 2016.
• As more oil is extracted from a field, it becomes
  harder to extract additional oil.
• Oil and gas production from existing sources is
  declining at 4-6 a year.

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The End of Cheap EnergyOther sources of oil

• There are more known sources of energy.
• Less efficient.
• More difficult to access and develop.

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The End of Cheap EnergyGlobal Demand

• Global demand for energy and oil is increasing.
• China is industrializing rapidly and using
  increased amounts of oil.
• To meet projected 2015 demand, there will be a
  need to find, develop, and produce a volume of
  oil equivalent to 8 out of 10 barrels produced
  today.

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The End of Cheap EnergyThe Energy Plateau

• Heinbergs energy plateau is when oil production
  has essentially leveled off. This is the period
  between growth and decline.
• The only advances in energy utilization that can
  be made are in efficiency.
• These will not be enough to make a difference.

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The End of Cheap EnergyNatural Gas

• Less polluting hydrocarbon.
• Currently used to heat over 50 of homes in the
  US
• Production peaked in 1971
• Production falling

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The End of Cheap EnergyUses

• Natural gas is used in the manufacture of many
  fertilizers.
• Many power plants have been converted to use
  natural gas.
• Widely used in the extraction of some oils.

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The End of Cheap EnergyOutlook

• US production already declining.
• Much more difficult to import than other
  hydrocarbons.
• Argument that even if importation begins in a
  serious manner, would only extend modern energy
  economy by a short time.

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The End of Cheap EnergyLong term economic
effects

• Our economy is based upon perpetual growth.
• For growth, an energy surplus is needed.
• Without oil, there will less energy.
• Efficiency will not make up the shortfall.
• Our economy will by necessity shrink.

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The End of Cheap EnergyAdditional points to
consider

• National infrastructure based upon limited
  resource.
• Economy based upon a limited source.

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The End of Cheap EnergyAlternative energy

• Will not be able to make up the energy shortfall.
• Will provide cushion for expected energy-related
  crash.
• Will not be enough to offset oil.
• A direction we need to start moving in.

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Main Point

• Fossil fuels are the equivalent of a huge
  inheritance- one that we have spent quickly and
  none to wisely. (Heinberg 20)
• Current methods of life unsustainable.
• Too much resource use.
• Too many people.

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Classroom Interaction

• Describe positive methods of reducing per capita
  energy consumption.
• Describe negative methods of reducing per capita
  energy consumption.

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Heinbergs Four Possible Scenarios

• Last One Standing
• Waiting for a Magic Elixir
• Powerdown
• Building Lifeboats

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Last One Standing The Way of War and Competition

• Increased competition for the remaining resources
  (especially oil and natural gas).
• Could possibly lead to the general destruction of
  human civilization and most of the ecological
  life support systems of the planet.

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Last One Standing

• Resource scarcity often leads to increased
  competition
• True for both animals and humans.
• The scale of the violence of war increases in
  tandem with the size of the societies involved
  and the levels of their technology.
• Human prehistory was dominated by wars over
  resources.

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Last One Standing

• Examples of historic resource-related wars
• King Philips War (1675-1676)
• Both of the World Wars (1914-1918 1939-1945)
• The Gulf War (1990 1991)
• The Iraq War (2003 present)

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Last One Standing

• The Free Market cannot prevent resource wars
• The argument goes that war cannot rationally be
  used to control resources in a world where
  everything is for sale.
• The global market has not prevented resource wars
  in the past.
• Buyers and sellers enter the marketplace with
  unequal levels of power.
• Todays market system works to maintain and
  deepen inequalities of wealth.
• Since World War II, wealthy industrial nations
  learned to dominate global trade through subtle
  methods.

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Last One Standing

• The Case of Iraq
• Heinberg believes it is unlikely that the
  American and British motives were to simply
  commandeer Iraq oil outright.
• In order to maintain its global dominance, the
  U.S. needs to be able to ensure stable oil
  imports at stable prices.
• Heinberg also believes that another goal of the
  Iraq War is to maintain dollar hegemony,
  considering that OPEC is contemplating switching
  to Euros.
• Thus far the outcome of the war does not appear
  encouraging for these objectives.

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Last One Standing

• Just When We Need Brilliant Leadership
• Heinberg utilizes fifteen pages to bash on Bush.
  
• The current administration goes far beyond the
  levels of corruption and incompetence that
  Americans have come to expect from their leaders
  in recent decades. (page 67)
• His main points Neo-conservatism is dangerous
  and Americans have been dumbed down by
  television.

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Last One Standing

• Types of Potential Resource Wars
• Those between powerful consumer nations and
  weaker, resource-rich nations.
• Civil wars.
• Those between consuming nations.
• Asymmetrical war, or terrorism.

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Last One Standing

• The Path of Least Resistance
• Resource wars are likely to be the default
  scenario if nothing is done to prevent them.
• Conflict is the easiest political alternative.
• Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons
  developments make it all the more scary.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir False Hopes,
Wishful Thinking, and Denial

• Heinberg offers critique on the commonly proposed
  alternative sources of energy.
• He insists that the real problem is not finding a
  new source of energy. It is the fact that there
  are too many people using too many resources

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• Unconventional Hydrocarbon Sources
• Include tar sands and methane hydrates
• Tar sand is a mud-like mixture of sand and clay
  surrounded by a dense hydrocarbon called bitumen.
• Methane hydrates are formed when marine organisms
  decompose and release methane. This methane
  becomes trapped on the ocean floor in ice
  crystals.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• Tar Sands
• Quantity of tar sands in the ground is enormous,
  but the rate of extraction is limited by the fact
  that the production process is energetically and
  financially expensive, as well as environmentally
  disastrous.
• Natural gas and fresh water are required to
  extract the bitumen. The price of natural gas is
  increasing, as our supplies dwindle.
• Tar sands project is doomed to become
  increasingly expensive.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• Methane Hydrates
• Extremely plentiful. Could power the world for
  centuries.
• The harvesting however, constitutes a technical
  problem of immense proportions.
• Its difficult to keep the methane from escaping
  into the atmosphere. (Not to mention its a
  greenhouse gas).
• Seabed methane hydrates already represent a
  serious environmental threat in the context of
  global warming trends.
• Extracting gas hydrates could disrupt seafloor
  stability leading to massive tsunamis.
• Extracting land-based methane hydrates will
  likely be just as difficult and dangerous.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• High on Hydrogen
• Heinberg feels that the idea of a hydrogen
  economy is hype rather than reality.
• Arguments against hydrogen
• The physical and chemical properties make it
  unstable as an energy carrier.
• Technically simple (but politically dicey)
  improvements to current cars and current
  environmental rules would be more than 100 times
  cheaper than a transition to hydrogen when it
  comes to reducing air pollution. (page 126)
• Hydrogen is not a source of energy, just a way of
  storing it.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• High on Hydrogen
• Arguments against hydrogen continued
• Spending money on hydrogen takes away investment
  from primary sources such as wind and solar.
• Most of the advantages of hydrogen depend on the
  vaunted efficiency of fuel cells.
• The coal and nuclear industries look favorably on
  hydrogen because the demand for electricity to
  produce it will inevitably increase.
• We need a solution now, not decades from now.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• High on Hydrogen
• There may be important niche applications for
  hydrogen.
• Some positive developments have been made
• More efficient ways to make hydrogen from fossil
  fuels.
• A method to harness the suns energy and use it
  to crack water molecules, thereby releasing
  hydrogen

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir
BMWs Hydrogen 7 can use gasoline or liquid
hydrogen
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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not
  Sustain Growth Indefinitely
• No single current candidate of energy replacement
  alternatives could provide the quantity or
  quality of energy necessary for economic growth.
• Heinberg discusses a few other alternative energy
  sources
• Thermal depolymerization
• Tidal system
• New types of photovoltaic solar cells
• Free-Energy machines

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not
  Sustain Growth Indefinitely
• Heinberg suggests that we organize an educated,
  unbiased commission whose job it is to evaluate
  all available energy alternatives across a range
  of transparent criteria. (page 131).
• Heinberg believes that based on the alternative
  energy sources, there is probably a transition
  strategy that could produce as much energy as
  industrial societies actually need in order to
  supply the basic necessities of life to their
  current populations, at least for the next couple
  of decades. (page 131-2)
• We long ago exceeded the carrying capacity of the
  Earth.

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Waiting for the Magic Elixir

• Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not
  Sustain Growth Indefinitely
• Liebigs Law The carrying capacity for any
  given species is set by the necessity in least
  supply.
• Humans would have a really tough time at managing
  a fully artificial environment.
• In the end, self-limitation is the only answer
  that counts, but that is the answer that no one
  wants to hear. (page 137).

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Power Down

• The Path of Cooperation, Conservation and Sharing

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Power DownSustainability

• Unsustainability of industrial societies is due
  to socioeconomic structures, institutions and
  processes.
• Heinberg suggest that we aim for
• The reduction of resource consumption per
  industrial output to ¼ its 1970 value.
• The reduction of pollution per industrial and
  agricultural output to ¼ its 1970 value.
• Local, self-sustained agriculture
• Reduction in the use of chemical fertilizers

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Power DownSelf-Limitation

• Reduction of resource consumption
• Modest material goals
• Reduction and stabilization of human population
• Limitation of industrial and economic growth
• Increase the durability and repairability of
  industrial goods

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Power DownExamples of Self Limitation

• Kerala, India
• Low economic growth and lowest per-capita incomes
• Lower birth rate, about 1.7 children per woman
• Life expectancy is 10 and 15 years higher for men
  and women
• Lower rates of infant mortality
• Does not depend on economic growth and depends
  much less on overseas trade
• More sustainable than Europe or the U. S.

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Power DownExamples of Self Limitation

• The 1970s saw an increase in crude oil prices.
• Speed limit decreased to 55 miles per hour
• More fuel efficient automobiles required
• Demand for gasoline decreased for the first time
  in decades

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What will happen if we continue our selfish ways?

• A Picture of Societal Collapse
• Mayan civilization
• Deforestation required for increased food
  production
• Erosion and soil depletion led to decreased crop
  yields
• Wars fought over decreasing resources
• Efforts to increase the capacity of environment
  decreases the long-term capacity

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Collapse of Industrial Society

• Scenario for the collapse of industrial society
• Energy shortages
• End to global economy as energy for transport
  declines
• Decrease in food production due to energy
  shortages and soil and water depletion, resulting
  in global famines
• Clean water shortages resulting in a global
  increase of water-related illnesses
• Wars over energy, food and water rights between
  and within countries
• Rising sea levels and increased storm frequency
  and severity create greater chaos
• Society decreases in complexity, reducing back to
  smaller regions and states, which may also
  collapse due to the same problems

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Building Lifeboats Survival in a Post-Carbon
World

• Who will survive
• Areas without large heating and cooling energy
  requirements
• Lower energy usage
• Self-sufficient, locally-based, lifestyle
• Personal survival will be dependant on community
  survival
• Cooperation within a community to provide for all
  members and to prevent further resource wars.

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Building Lifeboats Survival in a Post-Carbon
World

• Survivors must deal with the disappearance of
  familiar cultural infrastructure
• Technology communication networks
• Information networks
• School systems
• Familiar cultural life will degrade
• Survivors may become cultureless, having only
  memories of the past industrial society

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Building Lifeboats Survival in a Post-Carbon
World

• Cultural preservation and the new monks
• Likened to the monasteries that preserved the
  Latin language, the classics and Roman
  technologies following the collapse
• Would conserve practical information (food
  production and preservation, tool use,
  construction methods, building and operation of
  renewable energy systems)
• Abstract information (human history)
• Scientific information (ecosystem function,
  chemistry, geology, physics, astronomy and
  geography)
• Social information (world religions and arts)

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Building Lifeboats Survival in a Post-Carbon
World

• Cultural Preservation and the new monks
  continued
• A great amount of information cannot be preserved
• Electronically stored music and documents will be
  lost
• Books, journals, and magazines printed on
  acid-bearing paper will disintegrate in a few
  decades
• The sheer mass of information today cannot
  possibly all be preserved.
• New monks would have to be highly selective.

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Conclusion

• Weve got too many people and we use too many
  resources.
• we anticipate perpetual growth in a finite
  system. (132)
• If nothing is done civilization as we know it
  will collapse.
• Steps must be taken to mitigate the collapse.

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Strengths of Heinbergs Presentation

• Wide assemblage of facts.
• Analysis of production charts.
• Clearly states main points.
• Using fear tactics attracts attention to the
  issue.

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Weaknesses of Heinbergs Presentation

• Tends to deny any possibility that any person who
  disagrees with him can be competent and
  well-meaning.
• While talked about, the effects of human
  innovation were dismissed.
• Assumes his future is the only practical future
  policy.
• Fear tactics decrease the reasonableness of his
  argument.
• Tended to rant.
• Assumes that his interpretation of an impending
  crash is correct.
• Provides us with no optimistic outlook.
• Underlying arrogance.

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Images

• Oil well image courtesy of http//en.wikipedia.or
  g/wiki/ImageOil_well.jpg
• Ford Explorer image courtesy of
  http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image95-98_Ford_Expl
  orer.jpg
• Peak Oil chart courtesy of www.exitmundi.nl
• Amish farming photograph courtesy of
  www.dearborncounty.org/images/amish_farming.jpg
• U.S. energy consumption chart courtesy of
  www.geo.umn.edu/courses/3005/usquad.GIF
• Hummer photograph courtesy of www.uncrate.com/...
  /2007/10/hummer-h2-safari.jpg
• BMWs Hydrogen 7 photograph courtesy of
  Worldcarfans.com
• Dresden photography courtesy of
  http//www.aktionsbuendnis-gdv.de/grafik/bilder/dr
  esden1.jpg