RCPs and the data handshake between IAMs and ESMs: Emissions for IPCC AR5

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RCPs and the data handshake between IAMs and
ESMs Emissions for IPCC AR-5
Kathy Hibbard (NCAR) Neboja Nakicenovic
(IIASA)Steven Rose (US EPA) Jean-Francois
Lamarque (NCAR) Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
12th Session of the Working Group on Coupled
Modelling, Paris, FR 22-24 September, 2008
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Integrated Assessment FrameworkIPCC 2001
 

Impacts Vulnerabilities
Climate Change
A 10 year process
Socio-Economic Development Paths
Emissions
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
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(No Transcript)
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Working groups

• Emissions and Concentrations
• Jean-Francois Lamarque, Steve Smith, Detlef van
  Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, John van Aardenne.
• Land use and land cover
• Detlef van Vuuren, Johannes Feddema, Peter
  Thornton, Kathy Hibbard, Steve Smith, George
  Hurtt, Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakova, Kees Klein
  Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Elke Stehfest.
• 2300 extension
• Keywan Riahi, Mikiko Kainuma, Steven Rose, Steve
  Smith, Detlef van Vuuren.

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New scenarios development process parallel vs.
sequential approach
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New scenarios development process critical path
of scenario development
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• SRES 2

Scenarios selected to span climate space. (and
new scenario development process with scientific
communities as responsible party)
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Scenarios for Whom?

• Three major user communities
• Climate modeling communityneed scenarios to
  provide a coherent, internally consistent,
  time-paths for Earth System Models.

• Impacts, adaptation vulnerability modeling
  communityneed scenarios to provide a coherent,
  internally consistent, time-paths to assess the
  consequences of potential climate changes and to
  set the context for adaptive strategies.

• Integrated assessment communityto provide a
  coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to
  assess the costs of emissions mitigation

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RCP data hand-shake an IAM-ESM collaboration

• IAM teams need to extend their published
  scenarios to satisfy the full data request for
  climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling
• Harmonize definitions and historic data
• Provide additional detail for emissions
• Provide additional detail for land use land
  cover change
• Extend scenarios to 2300 currently only 2100
• Consistency and coordination between the
  communities required and essential to increase
  comparability and provide a smooth transition
  from historic to future periods

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User needs and scenario deliverables (1)

• Desirable scenario characteristics differ widely
  between users
• Climate system modellers, IAV analysts,
  mitigation analysts, policy makers, assessment
  bodies
• More short-term and regional details than in SRES
  should be included
• Adequate coverage of socio-economic aspects for
  IAV analysis required
• Most users prefer limited set of scenarios for
  reasons of clarity and communication

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User needs and scenario deliverables (2)

• Consistency and comparability of scenarios
  important
• Scientific perspective scenarios of
  socio-economic evolution, emission trajectories,
  climate system impacts, adaptation and mitigation
  interdependent
• Assessment and policy perspective choice and
  transparency of methods, inputs and outputs
  crucial for comparability

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Integrated Assessment FrameworkIAMC , WCRP, and
IGBP
 

Impacts Vulnerabilities
Climate Change
Socio-Economic Development Paths
Revised Development Paths
Emissions
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
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Research and Assessment Foci by WG

• Near-term (2035)
• ESM Extreme events, higher resolution,
  atmospheric chemistry
• IAV Observed impacts, adaptation
• IAM Baselines, near-term mitigation, climate-air
  pollution policy interactions
• Long-term (2100 and beyond to 2300)
• ESM Climate dynamics, climate-carbon cycle
  interactions
• IAV Vulnerability studies, multiple stresses
• IAM Overshoot and other stabilization, etc.

Source Moss et al., 2008
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REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS FORCING
AGENTS

• GHG Emissions and Concentrations from IAMs
• Greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs,
  PFCs, SF6
• Emissions of chemically active gases CO, NOx,
  NH4, VOCs
• Derived GHGs tropospheric O3
• Emissions of aerosols SO2, BC, OC
• Land use and land cover

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Goal for Emissions Harmonization Create a
consistent dataset for natural and anthropogenic
emissions (including biomass burning) for non-CO2
emissions (including aerosols and precursors,
ozone precursors and ozone-depleting substances)
for 1850-2300, at 0.5 resolution. Future
emissions must be fully consistent with the
proposed Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) . The emissions will be used in
climate-chemistry simulations for the IPCC AR-5.
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Emission scenarios and harmonisation
CO2CH4N2OSOyBCOCCONOxVOCNH3HFCsPFCsCFC
sSF6
John Van Aardenne, JRC/ISPRA EDGAR/NC
Steve Smith, PNNL
Tami Bond, UIUC
JRC/ISPRA data Available in 2 weeks time
JRC/ISPRA EDGAR/NC
Lex Bouwman, PBL
Air TransportationInternational Shipping
David Lee / Veronica Eyring, MMU/DLR

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Emissions Harmonization Major Contributors

• Tami Bond, University of Illinois,
  Urbana-Champaign, USA
• Veronika Eyring, DLR, Germany
• Sawako Ishiwatari, NIES, Japan
• Mikiko Kainuma, NIES, Japan
• David Lee, Centre for Air Transport and. the
  Environment. UK
• Cathy Liousse, Service dAérologie, Toulouse,
  France
• Glynis Lough, University of Illinois,
  Urbana-Champaign, USA
• Toshihiko Masui, NIES, Japan
• Aude Mieville, Service d'Aéronomie, Université
  Paris 6, France

• Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied
  Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
• Martin Schultz, Forschungszentrum, Jülich,
  Germany
• Michael Schulz, Laboratoire des Sciences du
  Climat et de lEnvironnement, Paris, France
• Steve Smith, Joint Global Change Research
  Institute, Baltimore, USA
• Elke Stehfest, KNMI, Bilthoven,The Netherlands
• David Stevenson, University of Edinburgh, UK
• John van Aardenne, Joint Research Centre, Ispra,
  Italy
• Detlef van Vuuren, KNMI, Bilthoven, The
  Netherlands, or PBL formerly known as MNP

Representing global inventories and Integrated
Assessment modelers
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Emission scenarios and harmonisation
Paris meeting May 2008 (IAMs, inventory and
atmospheric chemistry people)
CO2CH4N2OSOyBCOCCONOxVOCNH3HFCsPFCsCFC
sSF6
1. Air Transportation2. International
Shipping3. Other transportation4. Energy
production / conversion.5. Solvents6. Waste
(landfills, waste water)7. Industry (combustion
and process emissions)8. Buildings (Residential
and Commercial)9. Ag. waste burning on
fields10. Agriculture 11. Savannah burning12.
Land use change - Deforestation
Aim to have data at regional, national and grid
scale
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• Methodology
• Create best estimate for anthropogenic emissions
  in 2000 biomass burning emissions are taken as
  average GFED-v2 1997-2006 average
• Harmonize past and future emissions to 2000 at
  the regional (17 IMAGE regions) and sectoral
  level (12 sectors)
• Use combination of existing inventories (HYDE,
  RETRO, GICC) for historical anthropogenic
  emissions
• Use available inventories (between 2000 and
  present) to constrain future emissions (i.e.,
  ensure recent trends are captured)
• Regrid anthropogenic emissions using population
  maps or sectoral grids if available.

• Anthropogenic emissions 3 approaches
• Priority to national inventories
• Use of EDGAR only
• Average of existing inventories

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Emissions and concentrations

• Climate models have increasingly added detailed
  descriptions of the sources, sinks and
  atmospheric chemistry of both greenhouse gases
  and air pollutants. This detail will be
  incorporated into fully coupled models of the
  climate system
• Proposal
• Harmonize reference year 2000 (2005), IAM data
  adjusted to HTAP, EDGAR other datasets (SO2,
  BC/OC)
• Temporal resolution 10-yr time steps (CMs to
  perform linear interpolation add seasonal
  cycle)
• Provide anthropogenic and natural emissions
  (latter may not be used by CMs that calculate
  endogenously)
• Additional detail for reactive gases and
  aerosol precursors
• Concentrations run harmonized emissions
  through common SCM (e.g., MAGICC, Bern)

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Timeline

• Emissions for 2000 (2005) are expected to be
  finalized by the end of September
• In parallel, future and historical emissions will
  be
• Harmonized with the 2000 emissions
• Extended in time (past and future)
• Addition of natural emissions
• Evaluation (by ACC, CCMval, AEROCOM, groups)
  and testing of emissions
• Final delivery expected by the end of 2008

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Reactive gases aerosol precursors

• Gridded 0.5o x 0.5o IAM model specific
• Harmonized historical emissions (default
  EDGAR-HYDE 1850-1990 emissions, other for SO2 and
  BC/OC)
• Sectoral information
• Air Transportation
• International Shipping
• Other transportation
• Electric power plants, energy conversion,
  extraction and distribution.
• Solvents
• Waste (landfills, waste water, non-energy
  incineration)
• Industry (combustion and process emissions)
• Buildings (Residential and Commercial)
• Agricultural waste burning on fields
• Agriculture (Agricultural Soil Emissions, Other
  Agriculture)
• Savannah burning
• Land use change (Deforestation)

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• Coordination Events to Date
• Joint AIMES/IAMC Meeting February 2008, DC
• Emissions/IAMC Meeting, May 2008, Paris
• Joint AIMES/EMF Meeting August 2008, Snowmass
• IGAC OSM GEIA Discussions, September, 2008,
  Annecy
• IAMC meeting September, 2008, Baden THIS
  WEEK!
• WGCM with AIMES guests September 2008 THIS
  WEEK!
• RCP overview paper in review to Nature (as of
  16 Sept)
• MPI-Hamburg Meeting early 2009
• Steps under discussion this week
• Review comments on proposed approaches
• Resolve remaining issues and revise approaches

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• RCPs are just a beginning to facilitate research
  across communities
• the critical work comes next to explore and
  characterize uncertainties

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RCP Database

• Central data repository to share information and
  to provide easy access to the data
• Interactive web-based working environment
• detailed comparisons between RCPs and base year
  inventory data
• quick data visualization
• help to understand major data differences (eg.
  identify definitional issues across RCPs)
• At the moment limited access, since all data is
  preliminary initially through CDP then, mirror
  to IIASA
• Plan to make the database publicly accessible for
  data dissemination once the data is final

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RCP Database
Native (raw) data from all 4 RCPs
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RCP Database
Comparisons between RCPs (5 and 10 regions)
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RCP Database
7 Land cover types
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RCP Database
14 Emissions categories
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RCP Database
12 Sectors (for each emissions category)
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RCP Database
Data download to Excel and in different graphical
formats
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Preliminary Comparisons
Relatively good agreement between most sources
for WORLD totals (eg total sulfur)
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Preliminary Comparisons
Large differences for some sources on the
sectoral level (eg sulfur emissions from
residential and commercial)
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International Consortium

• Facilitate the coordination of scenario
  development efforts