Rationale for Biofuels' Biofuels and biodiversity towards a sustainable use of Bioenergy Organized b

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Rationale for Biofuels.Biofuels and
biodiversity towards a sustainable use of
Bio-energy Organized by Copernicus Institute
Utrecht University and KNAWs Global Change
CommitteeAmsterdam, 12 December 2007

• André Faaij
• Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

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Houston we have a problem!

• Peak oil
• Peak soil
• Peak water
• Peak biodiversity loss
• Peak population
• Peak GDP

• Climate
• Agriculture
• Energy
• Biodiversity
• Poverty development

And it is urgent!
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Whats it gonna be?
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Pathway vs. climate
Bron KNMI Dorland
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Projections for global final energy demand for
the four IPCC scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2).
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Future worlds energy supply(combined with 80
reduction of GHG-emissions) a portfolio of
options is needed!
Courtesy of IIASA
Courtesy of Shell
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Agricultural land use!

• We need a lot more food (especially protein).
• We dont have (a lot) more (agricultural) land.
• Agriculture and livestock main threat for
  biodiversity (today), main consumer of water,
  main emitter of GHGs.
• Agriculture and poverty interlinked 70 of the
  worlds poor in rural setting
• Productivity in agriculture is awful on large
  parts of the globe.
• Such agricultural practices often unsustainable
  as such.
• Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for
  unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).

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Potential land-use pattern changes(IMAGE)
Hoogwijk, Faaij et al., Biomass Bioenergy,
2005
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So

• Investment in agriculture (and livestock) is
  essential (2nd green revolution see e.g. Fresco
  in collaboration with Faaij Dijk)
• This is feasible (FAO)
• with increased water use efficiency, less land,
  protection of soils and better incomes.
• But what gets the money and sustainable economic
  activity into the rural regions?

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International bio-energy markets developing fast

• Excitement
• entered first phases of commodity market trading
  (ethanol) pellets the silent suprise.
• Creates unique opportunities for both producers
  regions as importers.
• Entrepreneurs and policy now deal with
  development of bioenergy in rapidly developing
  international context.
• Concerns
• Fierce international debate on sustainability
  remarkably fast response from governments,
  companies, NGOs.
• Different interests perspectives on governance
  policy
• Vulnerable stage many barriers remain

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Bio-ethanol flows 2000 (kton)
Courtesy of UNCTAD
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Bio-ethanol flows 2004 (kton)
Traded 3 billion litres Global production 32
billion litres
Courtesy of UNCTAD
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More trade developments
Bradley, 2006
IEA Task 40
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Bioenergy today

• 45 EJ 10 EJ total use
• 9 EJ 6 EJ commercial non-modern
• 8 EJ Modern commercial
• lt 1 EJ electricity
• 2.5 EJ heat
• 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk ethanol half of that
  ethanol sugar cane based)
• Main controversy on biofuels from annual crops
  and palm oil.
• Currently some 20 Mha in use for biofuels
  worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)

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Generations

• 2nd generation
• Lignocellulosic materials.
• Residues, wastes, arable, pasture, marginal and
  degraded lands.
• Potential large.
• Strong economic outlook technology more
  important.
• Good excellent GHG and env. performance
• Demanded by more sophisticated needs

• 1st Generation (EU, US)
• Annual crops food crops.
• Limited to arable land.
• Potential constrained.
• High costs mainly feedstock.
• Poor - modest GHG and env. performance.
• Pushed by simple policies.

3rd generation optimized conversion, surprise
feedstocks (). But it will take time!
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Perennial crops (vs. annual crops)

• Lower costs (lt 2 /GJ)
• Planted for 15-25 years
• Low(er) intensity
• Can restore soil carbon and structure
• Suited for marginal/degraded lands
• Requires less inputs (well below key threshold
  values)
• Wide portfolio of species production systems
• Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity
• Adaptable to local circumstances (water,
  indigenous species)
• Earlier development stage
• Large scale and diverse experience needed
• Learning curve to be exploited
• Improvement potential

Miscanthus x giganteus
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Yields perennials 3x annual
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GHG Balances
IEA Fulton, 2004
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Global potentials are large but need to be
developed
Agricultural land lt100- gt300 EJ Marginal lands
lt60- 150 EJ Agri residues 15-70 EJ Forest
residues lt30-150 EJ Dung 5-55 EJ Organic waste
5 - gt50 EJ TOTAL lt 250 - gt 500 EJ
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Bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass

• SHF
• SSF
• SSCF
• CBP
• BIG/CC

Major demonstrations In US/Canada, EU

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Ethanol plants US (status 2006)
Global ethanolProduction outlook
Source John Urbanchuk (data for Oct 31 2006
green operating, red under construction)
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Synthetic fuels from biomassBiomass coal
gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine
Major investments in IG-FT capacity ongoing in
China right now - Reducing dependency on oil
imports! - Without capture strong increase in CO2
emissions
About 50 of carbon!
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What are we waiting for?
Yueyang Sinopec-Shell Coal gasification project
(China) Shell gasifier arriving at site
September 2006. 15 licences in China at
present Courtesy of Shell
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Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t.
l.t. 3 Euro/GJ feedstock
Hamelinck Faaij, 2006, Energy Policy
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Certification bioenergy (I) ongoing initiatives

• Governments UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations
  EC.
• NGOs
• International bodies UNEP, UNCTAD, FAO,
• Market initiatives/multistakeholder roundtables
  on palm, soy and biofuels, GGL, Electrabel,

IEA Task 40Van Dam et al., 2007 Biomass
Bioenergy, Forthcoming
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Certification bioenergy (III) concerted action

• First time that governments actually try to set
  sustainability criteria for a commodity! -gt
  Paradigm shift with implications for food
  products, fodder, materials etc.
• This takes time (allow for learning).
• Varying degree of concern palm oil/soy
  bean/corn most debated, other (residues, wood)
  are approved by most stakeholders
• Methodological issues to be resolved
  competition, biodiversity, a.o.
• Global convergence, dialogue and deployment
  priority (leaders needed).

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Biofuels roadmap (I).

• Biomass resource base the foundation
• Perennials build experience!
• Biomass resource (and land) base much more
  diverse than agricultural crops (and land) alone.
• Biomass cultivation schemes (with perennials) can
  offer substantial ecological and socio-economic
  benefits when done right.
• Develop biomass production in global market
  context (international trade sustainability
  demands)

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Biofuels roadmap (II).

• 2nd generation biofuels provide the economics
  energy GHG balance to be the winning option.
• Lignocellulosic based EtOH and gasification based
  synfuels compete.
• Synfuels produced from biomass, coal and natural
  gas, provide flexible, large scale capacity
  (CCS)
• Hydrolysis units can start as add-ons to
  current EtOH production capacity.
• Lignocellulosic resources for power on shorter
  term (now) for fuels on medium term (before
  2015).

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Stay with me for 4 more seconds

• Current crisis in crossing the global carrying
  capacity requires unprecedented action
• and it has to be fast!
• and it will not be easy.
• Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2nd
  revolution!), development (poverty!), energy
  (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!) this is a
  unique position.
• We have the bioenergy options to achieve
  synergies (as well as the wrong ones)

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Stay with me for 2 more seconds

• Governance is the key across policy fields
  (agriculture, energy, climate, development)
  consistent and stable.
• Policies on biofuels redesigned from one to
  multiple objectives.
• Moratorium on temperate climate biofuels seems
  wise save money
• and spend it on the right biofuels.

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"Modern bio-energy and biofuels have the
potential to cover one third of the future
world's energy demand on a sustainable basis and
provide a key lever for much needed rural
development on a global scale". Postponing
action and generating confusion is at this stage
immoral