Patricia Dehmer

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Facing Our Energy Challenges in a New Era of
Science
William E. Mahoney Annual LectureChemistry
DepartmentUniversity of Massachusetts, Amherst
24 October 2008

• Patricia Dehmer
• Deputy Director for Science Programs
• Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy
• Download this talk at http//www.science.doe.gov/S
  C-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm

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The Very Long View Technology, infrastructure,
and fuels mix have evolved together over 100
years, and 19th century discoveries and 20th
century technologies are with us today
U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Wind, water, wood, animals, (Mayflower,1620)
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Energy Facts That We Should Know

• Energy consumption today
• Energy needs through the 21st century
• Energy sources and consumption sectors in the
  U.S.
• Fossil fuel reserves
• Nuclear and renewable energy
• Energy and the environment

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Energy consumption today
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U.S. and World Energy Consumption TodayWith lt5
of the worlds population, the U.S. consumes 22
of all primary energy
463 Quads
World
United States
101 Quads
China
Russia
Some equivalent ways of referring to the energy
used by the U.S. in 1 year (approx. 100
Quads) 100.0 quadrillion British Thermal Units
(Quads) U.S. British unit of energy 105.5 exa
Joules (EJ) Metric unit of energy 3.346
terawatt-years (TW-yr) Metric unit of power
(energy/sec)x(seconds in a year)
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U.S. Energy Production and Consumption Since
1950The U.S. was self sufficient in energy until
the late 1950s
The United States was self-sufficient in energy
until the late 1950s when energy consumption
began to outpace domestic production. At that
point, the Nation began to import more energy to
fill the gap. In 2007, net imported energy
accounted for 1/3 of all energy consumed.
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Energy needs through the 21st century
?
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World Energy Needs will Grow Significantly in the
21st CenturyBy the end of the century, world
energy needs may triple
Projections to 2030 are from the Energy
Information Administration, International Energy
Outlook, 2007.
World Primary Energy Consumption (Quads)
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Energy Demand Grows with Economic DevelopmentAs
nations with large populations develop, world
energy demand will greatly increase
PPP Purchasing Power Parity - A rate of
exchange that accounts for price differences
across countries allowing international
comparisons of real output and incomes.
Source UN and DOE EIA, Slide courtesy of Steven
E. Koonin, Chief Scientist, BP, plc
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Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S.
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads Quadrillion BTU
1015 BTU) About 1/3 of U.S. primary energy is
imported
Exports 5.4 Quads
Domestic Production 71.7 Quads
Consumption 101.6 Quads
Energy Consumption
Energy Supply (Quads)
Imports 34.6 Quads
Adjustments 1
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) 85 of primary
energy is from fossil fuels
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
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U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) gt70 of primary
energy for the transportation sectorand gt60 of
primary energy for electricity generation/use is
lost

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Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
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U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) At midcentury,
the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used
today and with greater overall efficiency
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Overall Efficiency of an Incandescent Bulb ? 2
Lighting accounts for ? 22 of all electricity
usage in the U.S.
Example of energy lost during conversion and
transmission. Imagine that the coal needed to
illuminate an incandescent light bulb contains
100 units of energy when it enters the power
plant. Only two units of energy eventually light
the bulb. The remaining 98 units are lost along
the way, primarily as heat.
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Illumination of the Night Sky 2/3 of the U.S
population has lost naked-eye visibility of the
Milky Way
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id1438l
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Fossil fuel reserves
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Fossil Fuel Supplies are Estimated using
Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratios R/P ratios
suggest oil and gas reserves last one decade (for
U.S.) to half a century (for world)

• The R/P ratio is the number of years that proved
  reserves would last at current production rates.
• World R/P ratios are Oil 40.5 years
  Natural Gas 66.7 years Coal 164 years
• U.S. R/P ratios are Oil 11.1 years
  Natural Gas 9.8 years Coal 245 years

200
164 yrs.
Proven World Reserves-to-Production Ratio at End
2004 (Years)
100
66.7 yrs.
40.5 yrs.
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
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World Reserves of OilThere is a significant
dislocation between fossil fuel supply and demand
Who uses the oil? (thousands of barrels per day)
(http//www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)
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Peak OilU.S. oil production peaked in 1970
world oil production will peak mid century
1970
Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios The Future
Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert, John
H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/featu
re_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
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Nuclear and renewable energy
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Construction Permits for U.S. Power Reactors
Issued Only Until 19798.4 quads of nuclear
energy produced by 104 operable nuclear power
plants
300
Units Ordered
250
200
Construction Permits Issued
Number of Units
150
Full-power Operating Licenses
100
Operable Units
50
Shutdowns
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
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Nuclear Energy Provides 20 of U.S.
Electricity Europe and Japan rely much more
heavily on nuclear energy for electricity
generation
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Nuclear and Renewable Energies are 15 of Energy
SupplyHydroelectric and wood still dominate the
renewable energies
Coal 22
Nuclear 8
Renewables 7
Petroleum 40
Natural Gas 23
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Potentials of U.S. Renewable Energy Sources
DRAFT
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Energy and the environment
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Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include
water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and ozone. Greenhouse gases that are not
naturally occurring include hydro-fluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a
variety of industrial processes.
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Planets, Atmospheres, and Climate
A planet's climate is determined by its mass, its
distance from the sun, and the composition of its
atmosphere. Earth's atmosphere is 78 nitrogen,
21 oxygen, and 1 other gases. Carbon dioxide
accounts for 0.03 - 0.04. Water vapor, carbon
dioxide, and other minor gases absorb thermal
radiation leaving the surface. These greenhouse
gases act as a partial blanket for the thermal
radiation from the surface and enable it to be
substantially warmer than it would otherwise be.
Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average
temperature would be roughly -20C -4 F.
-58oF
59oF
788 oF
Sun
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There is a Natural Carbon Cycle between the
Atmosphere and the Land/OceansAnthropogenic
effects (fossil fuels use, land use, ) result in
a net increase in atmospheric carbon
Gigatons (Gt) Carbon (C)
Slow exchange with surface ocean carbon
Storage in Gt C Fluxes in Gt C/year 1 Gton 109
tons
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Modern CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere are
Increasing The current concentration is the
highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice
core data
Concentration now 388 ppm
Concentration prior to 1800 was 280 ppm
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Modern CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere are
Increasing The current concentration is the
highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice
core data
Recent monthly mean CO2 measured at Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii. Data are reported as a dry
mole fraction the number of molecules of CO2
divided by the number of molecules of dry air,
multiplied by one million (ppm). The dashed red
line with diamond symbols represents the monthly
mean values, centered on the middle of each
month. The black line with the square symbols
represents the same, after correction for the
average seasonal cycle.
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Air Bubbles in Antarctic Ice Provide 800,000
Years of CO2 Concentrations
Nature, 15 May 2008, Cover Image The air
bubbles trapped in the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA
Dome C ice cores provide composite records of
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane
covering the past 650,000 years. Now the record
of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane
concentrations has been extended by two more
complete glacial cycles to 800,000 years ago. The
new data are from the lowest 200 metres of the
Dome C core. This ice core went down to just a
few metres above bedrock at a depth of 3,270
metres. The cover shows a strip of ice core
from another ice core in Antarctica (Berkner
Island) from a depth of 120 metres. Photo credit
Chris Gilbert, British Antarctic Survey.
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Correlation between CO2 Concentrations and
Temperature The correlation extends throughout
the 800,000-year time span of the ice core data
a The 800,000-year records of atmospheric carbon
dioxide (red parts per million, p.p.m.) and
methane (green parts per billion, p.p.b.) from
the EPICA Dome C ice core together with a
temperature reconstruction (relative to the
average of the past millennium) based on the
deuteriumhydrogen ratio of the ice, reinforce
the tight coupling between greenhouse-gas
concentrations and climate observed in previous,
shorter records. The 100,000-year sawtooth
variability undergoes a change about 450,000
years ago, with the amplitude of variation,
especially in the carbon dioxide and temperature
records, greater since that point than it was
before. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
modern atmosphere are highly anomalous with
respect to natural greenhouse-gas variations
(present-day concentrations are around 380 p.p.m.
for carbon dioxide and 1,800 p.p.b. for
methane). b The carbon dioxide and methane
trends from the past 2,000 years. Ed Brook,
Nature 453, 291 (2008).
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Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations
for Various IPCC Scenarios CO2 concentrations are
predicted to increase by a factor of two to three
X 388
Preindustrial concentration 280 ppm
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Addressing the coupled problems ofenergy
security and climate stability
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Key RDD Strategies
Electric Energy Storage
Fuel Switching
End-use Efficiency
Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation
CCS
Conservation
Fuel Switching
Climate/Environment Impacts
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Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
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One Strategy Emphasize Climate Change
MitigationStabilization Wedges Pacala and
Socolow Challenge for CO2 Stabilization for Kids
and Lawmakers
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Stabilization WedgesTwo Emission Scenarios
Define the Stabilization Triangle
Emissions-doubling path
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The Wedge Stabilization Game Pieces
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Another Strategy Focus both on Energy Security
and on Climate
Positive Climate Characteristics
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 20 B
kWh) Transport Sector (this size corresponds to
100,000 barrels of oil per day)
For details on the assumptions underlying the
options, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoption
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Legislation?
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Historical Comparison of Legislative Climate
Change Targets Considered by the U.S. Senate As
of June 4, 2008
Pacala-Socolow
More aggressive than Pacala-Socolow
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A decades-to-century strategyThe role of
research
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Learning or Experience Curves
Learning curve theory states that as the quantity
of items produced doubles, costs decrease at a
predictable rate. Studies from many industries
yield values ranging from a couple of percent up
to 30 percent, but in most cases it is a constant
percentage. Can we make abrupt changes in
learning curves?
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The Learning Curve for Solar Cells Price dropped
20 for each doubling of production since 1976
(80 learning curve)
Learning curve for solar cells. The module price
has been dropping 20 for every doubling of
module production (80 learning curve) since
1976. Extrapolation of this historical trend into
the future, plus a projected technological
revolution at an annual production level of
150,000 MWp, results in a prediction that
0.40/Wp would not be reached for another 2025
yr. Reaching 0.40/Wp sooner to accelerate
large-scale implementation of PV systems will
require an intense effort in basic science to
produce a technological revolution that leads to
new, as-yet-unknown technology. This revolution
requires a major reduction in the ratio of the PV
module cost per unit area to the cell efficiency.
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Competitive Pricing is Still Decades Away with
the 80 Learning Curve
Learning curve for solar cells. The module price
has been dropping 20 for every doubling of
module production (80 learning curve) since
1976. Extrapolation of this historical trend into
the future, plus a projected technological
revolution at an annual production level of
150,000 MWp, results in a prediction that
0.40/Wp would not be reached for another 2025
yr. Reaching 0.40/Wp sooner to accelerate
large-scale implementation of PV systems will
require an intense effort in basic science to
produce a technological revolution that leads to
new, as-yet-unknown technology. This revolution
requires a major reduction in the ratio of the PV
module cost per unit area to the cell efficiency.
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The Evolution of Superconducting Transition
Temperature High Tc discovered in 1986
Mechanism still unknown Nobel Prize in 1987
Crystal structure of the first high-Tc
superconductor, La2-xSrxCuO4 (left), with a Tc of
40 K, versus the record holder,
Hg0.2Tl0.8Ca2Ba2Cu3O8, with a Tc of 140 K
(right). Because the Cu-O planes are the same in
both materials, the huge 100 K difference must
result from the optimization of energy scales in
the Hg-based compound.
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Worlds First High Temperature Superconducting
Power Cable Installed as part of the Long Island
Power Authority
The world's first HTS power transmission cable
system is pictured above as part of the Long
Island Power Authority (LIPA) transmission grid.
This system, which consists of three cables
running in parallel in a four-foot wide
underground right of way, is capable of carrying
574 megawatts of power. The three cables shown
entering the ground can carry as much power as
all of the overhead lines on the far left. (Photo
courtesy of American Superconductor Corp.)
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Giant Magnetoresistance Used in Read-Write Heads
Shortly After Discovery Discovered in 1988
Nobel Prize in 2007
1960
1970
1980
1990
2010
2000
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200 Years of Luminous Efficacy for Various
Lighting Technologies
Jeff Y. Tsao, Solid-State Lighting Lamps, Chips
and Materials for Tomorrow, IEEE Circuits
Devices 20(3), 28-37 (2004).
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How Will Basic Science Break Historic Improvement
Curves?
Electric Energy Storage
Fuel Switching
End-use Efficiency
Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation
CCS
Conservation
Fuel Switching
Climate/Environment Impacts
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Source LLNL 2008 data are based on
DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to
LLNL and DOE.
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10 Basic Research Needs Workshops 10
workshops 5 years more than 1,500 participants
from academia, industry, and DOE labs

• Basic Research Needs to Assure a Secure Energy
  Future
• Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy
• Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization
• Basic Research Needs for Superconductivity
• Basic Research Needs for Solid State Lighting
• Basic Research Needs for Advanced Nuclear Energy
  Systems
• Basic Research Needs for the Clean and Efficient
  Combustion of 21st Century Transportation Fuels
• Basic Research Needs for Geosciences
  Facilitating 21st Century Energy Systems
• Basic Research Needs for Electrical Energy
  Storage
• Basic Research Needs for Catalysis for Energy
  Applications
• Basic Research Needs for Materials under Extreme
  Environments

www.science.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html
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Disruptive Technologies Require ControlControl
of materials properties and functionalities
through electronic and atomic design

• Control of photon, electron, spin, phonon, and
  ion transport in materials
• Control of atomic arrangement at the nanoscale
• Materials discovery, design, development, and
  fabrication
• New tools for spatial characterization, temporal
  characterization, and for theory/modeling/computat
  ion

www.science.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html
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Directing Matter and Energy Five Challenges for
Science and the Imagination How nature works

• Control the quantum behavior of electrons in
  materials
• Synthesize, atom by atom, new forms of matter
  with tailored properties
• Control emergent properties that arise from the
  complex correlations of atomic and electronic
  constituents
• Synthesize man-made nanoscale objects with
  capabilities rivaling those of living things
• Control matter very far away from equilibrium

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How Nature Works to Materials by Design to
Technologies for the 21st Century
Development Deployment
Applied Research
Grand Science Challenges
Use-Inspired Basic Research How nature
works Properties and functionalities by
design

• Basic research for fundamental new understanding
  on materials or systems that may revolutionize or
  transform todays energy technologies
• Development of new concepts and tools

• Basic research, often with the goal of addressing
  showstoppers on real-world applications in the
  energy technologies

• Research with the goal of meeting technical
  milestones, with emphasis on the development,
  performance, cost reduction, and durability of
  materials and components or on efficient
  processes
• Proof of technology concepts

• Scale-up research
• At-scale demonstration
• Cost reduction
• Prototyping
• Manufacturing RD
• Deployment support

• Control the quantum behavior of electrons in
  materials
• Synthesize, atom by atom, new forms of matter
  with tailored properties
• Control emergent properties that arise from the
  complex correlations of atomic and electronic
  constituents
• Synthesize man-made nanoscale objects with
  capabilities rivaling those of living things
• Control matter very far away from equilibrium

Basic Research Needs Workshops
Grand Challenges
DOE Technology Office/Industry Roadmaps
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Take the Beat-the-Leaf Challenge
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END
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IPCC Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Modeling
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Prefixes and Names for Large and Small Numbers