LAPS hot start diabatic initialization of mesoscale forecast models for IHOP

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LAPS hot startdiabatic initialization of
mesoscale forecast models for IHOP

• Paul Schultz
• NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
• Local Analysis and Prediction Branch

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The LAPS team

• John McGinley, branch chief, variational methods
• Paul Schultz, project manager, modeler
• Brent Shaw, modeler
• Steve Albers, cloud analysis, temp/wind analysis
• Dan Birkenheuer, humidity analysis

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LAPS II Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis
METAR
METAR
METAR
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Cloud typing
Cumulus vertical motions
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LAPS II Dynamic Balance Adjustment
( ) b are background quantities () are
solution increments from background ( ) are
observation differences from background
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LAPS II Dynamic Balance Adjustment
FH FL
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Verification -- before repairs
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Changes to the hot start on 24 May

• Convert cloud liquid to vapor to achieve
  saturation
• Lessen the depth below cloud to which cloud vv
  extends
• Make the magnitude of the parabolic vv profile
  grid-length dependent
• Limit rain mixing ratio to the autoconversion
  value

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Verification -- after repairs
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Next

• Examine 4-5 cases with Szoke, Brown, RAP folks
• Re-run IHOP cases with MM5 and WRF with refined
  hot start
• Update verification